PERU: Who is Bluffing in the Hostage Crisis?

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis Abraham Lama

LIMA, Feb 4 1997 (IPS) - The negotiations for the release of the hostages held in the Japanese Embassy will have to surmount a climate of aggressive confrontation between the two central protagonists: Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori and guerrilla leader Nestor Cerpa.

At 5:00 AM on Tuesday, Cerpa, the head of the insurgent group that occupied the embassy in mid-December, made several shots in the air and pronounced a speech that concluded with the cry “We shall not give in! Fatherland or death! We shall win!”

The birds roosting in surrounding trees were frightened off by the shots and the shouts that were amplified by an electronic megaphone.

While commemorating the 18th anniversary of the seizure of a textile factory, Cromotex, Cerpa took the opportunity to reiterate his demand that the Fujimori administration release the 458 imprisoned members of the Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA).

Fujimori returned to Lima Tuesday after meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto in Toronto, Canada and U.S. President Bill Clinton in Washinton, and after publicly repeating that he would not agree to a prisoners-for-hostages swap.

Hashimoto and Clinton backed Fujimori’s position while expressing their confidence in his ability to obtain a peaceful release of the hostages, who include Peruvian and Japanese diplomats, politicians, military and businessmen and the Bolivian ambassador.

Perhaps Fujimori or Cerpa still have cards up their sleeves, and it will soon become clear who is bluffing: the president when he says he will not accept a swap, or the rebel leader, who insists there will be no accord unless the prisoners are freed.

Converted into mere chips in this tense, dramatic game, the 72 hostages and 458 prisoners – who include the MRTA’s top leaders – can only await the outcome.

Fujimori and Cerpa are not alone at the table: Tokyo has stopped peering over the president’s shoulder, and in Toronto officially asked to be dealt a hand, yielding to Clinton the post of spectator.

As its representative in the game, Japan designated its ambassador in Mexico, Terusuke Terada, a new member of the Commission of Guarantors that is to facilitate the implementation of accords reached between the government of Peru and the MRTA.

Although it is nominally only a guarantor, Japan is in fact a full player: it is to put up the cash if Cerpa drops his demand of freedom for his companions in exchange for a succulent ransom, or give the go-ahead to a military rescue operation if the negotiations fall flat.

But there are other members on the Commission of Guarantors: the Vatican, which designated Bishop Luis Cipriani as its representative, the Canadian government, whose delegate is Ambassador Anthony Vincent, and the Red Cross. But they have not been dealt in, and are only to bear witness to compliance with the accords.

The embassy crisis has had a major impact on domestic politics here. Although opposition parties continue to behave in a restrained manner, it is clear that Fujimori’s top concern – reelection to a third consecutive term – will depend on the outcome to the crisis.

Opinion polls here indicate that an overwhelming majority of the population is in favour of a peaceful solution. But that same majority is opposed to a release of the imprisoned MRTA members.

With his eyes on the election calendar, Fujimori has made it clear that he is willing to ignore Tokyo’s advice to accelerate the negotiations by making political concessions to the MRTA, as well as pressure from the “hawks” in the local armed forces who are prepared to attempt a military rescue operation.

Sources close to Fujimori say that while he has no means of impeding a financial accord between the MRTA and Tokyo, because Japan is now a member of the Commission of Guarantors, he will try to remain detached from any such deal.