TANZANIA-FOOD: Heading for a Crisis?

By Moyiga Nduru Reprint | | Print |

Moyiga Nduru

NAIROBI, Sep 1 1997 (IPS) - The threat of famine is looming in Tanzania, where the number of affected persons needing food aid is reported to have risen to 5.5 million.

The U.N. Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) says in the latest report by its Early Warning System that the country’s cereal production is expected to decline in the 1997/98 marketing year to 3.41 million tonnes, significantly lower than the 1996/1997 output.

“Good harvests are expected in only limited areas, notably in western parts where rains were normal … There will be a substantial shortfall, currently forecast at about one million tonnes,” said the FAO report, titled ‘Food Supply Situation and Crop Prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa’, a copy of which was made available to IPS.

Last week, Tanzania’s government urged its business community to import more food to offset a grain deficit of over 916,000 tonnes. Prime Minister Frederick Sumaye said if business people failed to do so, the government would take up the challenge.

Of the total amount that needs to be imported, maize — Tanzania’s main staple food — accounts for 776,000 tonnes, Sumaye told parliament in the central Tanzanian town of Dodoma. The shortage has affected 14 regions, he said.

Sumaye’s statement followed the release on Aug. 12 of the preliminary findings of a joint FAO/WFP/Government of Tanzania mission conducted on 19-31 July in nine of the most affected regions. It indicated that the national maize crop had been poor.

“The food/crop situation from the 1996/97 harvest is not very promising. Very few isolated areas have managed to get a medium good harvest,” said the report, which was made available to IPS.

It said Tanzania’s reserve stocks had been depleted to the unprecedented level of 17,000 tonnes up to July 1997. The process of replenishing them has been hampered by stiff competition from private traders, who offer relatively higher prices. Another constraint is the fact that due to low production levels, there is a limited number of areas where stocks can be purchased effectively.

According to the report, allocations — both from government and WFP — are not sufficient for the most vulnerable people during the next four to eight months. WFP’s food, allocated initially to 200,000 people, is now being shared among a much larger number of persons.

The food deficit has been attributed to the failure of rains, which has also taken a toll on cash crops, particularly cotton and tobacco. This will inevitably affect the incomes and purchasing power of most farming communities.

The FAO and WFP envisage that some parts of Tanzania will face severe food shortages and possibly famine, particularly between September 1997 and January 1998, when harvests from the short rains are expected.

East Africa as a whole is feeling the impact of a drought that affected not only Tanzania but also Kenya and Uganda this year.

In Kenya, the overall food supply remains low and food prices have increased sharply. Food aid continues to be distributed in pastoral and agriculturally marginal areas which were most affected by the drought.

An FAO Mission to Kenya in April found that domestic availability of the staple maize falls short of the 1997 requirement by 721,000 tonnes. Most of the deficit is expected to be covered by commercial imports, leaving an estimated food aid requirement of 218,000 tonnes.

Recently, the first-ever FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Uganda forecast that that country would barely meet its food needs in 1997, registering small surpluses in only a few crops.

The mission was sent to Uganda in response to crop production difficulties in the eastern and northern districts due to a combination of drought, floods and civil strife.

The situation in the three countries does not reflect the overall picture in sub-Saharan Africa where the FAO says it expects the 1997 cereal import requirement to be lower than last year’s by some 21 percent. This is a result of the generally satisfactory 1996 harvests in West Africa and parts of the Horn, and a relatively good harvest, now nearing completion, in Southern Africa.

“However, the sub-region’s food aid needs, though some 15 percent lower than last year, remain high, estimated at 2 million tonnes. Food aid pledges currently match the requirement but speedier deliveries are needed,” said Mwita Rukandema of the FAO headquarters in Rome when he addressed journalists here at the launch of the Early Warning System’s report in August.

According to Rukandema, countries facing exceptional food emergencies are Angola, Burundi, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.