POLITICS-ECUADOR: “El Nino” to Sway Elections

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Ana Maldonado

QUITO, May 26 1998 (IPS) - The “El Nino” phenomenon which caused floods leaving thousands Ecuadorans destitute, has become a leading vote-puller for the ‘undecideds’ in the run up to the first round of presidential elections Sunday.

At least three of the six contenders – Democratic Christian, Jamil Mahuad, Populist, Alvaro Noboa and Centre Left, Freddy Ehlers – have emphasised plans for reconstruction of the damaged areas in their campaign speeches.

By April, the climatic phenomenon had wiped 2,500 kilometres of road and 25,000 hectares of crops off the map, causing more than 500 million dollars-worth of damage to infrastructure. More than 10,000 people lost their homes and jobs.

Observers say it is the citizenry of the Pacific coast – half the nation’s seven million voters – who will swing the balance, and they are currently the people most in need of disaster relief.

The presidential candidates are clearly aware of this. “We will rebuild the coast,” shouts one of Mahuad’s slogans.

Noboa, millionaire and friend of former president Abdala Bucaram, has spent an undetermined amount of money on food, medicine and medical support for the towns devastated by El Nino.

His wife, Dr. Anabella Azin, has been leading the aid convoys to areas hit by epidemic and illness.

Ehlers, a popular television host backed by the indigenous movements and middle classes, constantly appears dressed in the hat and machete characteristic of the coastal people and he has spent a large part of his campaign visiting the flood-struck settlements.

All the polling companies expect the coastal voters to opt for the candidate who best sold their image as the ‘rebuilder,’ a title to date disputed by Mahuad and Noboa.

Mahuad accentuated his image as a good administrator, on the strength of being twice mayor of Quito, while Noboa based his campaign on his undoubtedly extensive economic power, and part of the population believe he may personally invest in rebuilding.

Quito daily ‘El Comercio,’ Tuesday stressed its concern the problems caused by the El Nino have accentuated the traditional confrontation between the coastal and mountain regions.

“It is not good to win on the coast against the mountain people nor in the mountains against the coastals,” said the daily, echoing the doubt over who will benefit from the disaster victims’ votes.

According to the latest poll by the Market company, Mahuad will come in first with 37 percent, with strong support from the mountain people, while Noboa, coastal-born himself, will take 24 percent, mainly backed by his peers.

The same survey said Ehlers will take 11.5, and the former Social Democrat president, Rodrigo Borja, 10 percent.

The two women candidates, former vice president Rosalia Arteaga and the Marxist representative Maria Eugenia Lima, will take less than five percent each.

Some 20 percent of eligible voters remain undecided only days away from the elections, making forecasts uncertain. In any case, this time round, all observers agree ‘El Nino’ will be a key factor in the eventual outcome.