POLITICS-JAPAN: New Leader Under Intense Public Scrutiny

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Jul 24 1998 (IPS) - The ruling party has chosen Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi as its new leader — who will later assume the premiership — to steer Japan out of its worst post-war economic crisis and help lift the rest of Asia from the doldrums.

As the candidate of party elders, the election of Obuchi, 61, was expected, but it was a disappointment to the business community, say analysts.

“The vote is as predicted by the media,” pointed out Sho Kawsaki, 52, a businessman who had hoped for a different verdict in the vote fought among Obuchi and two other more popular opponents.

“Party politics are more important than popular support in the selection of Japan’s new leader,” he said.

The choice of Obuchi, who belongs to the biggest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) dealt a blow to the aspiration of the more progressive-minded who want strong leadership at a time of severe economic difficulties, analysts say.

The government needs to shake off eight years of recession and revive the country’s once bustling economy, they add.

“Obuchi,” says veteran political analyst, Minoru Morita, “is colourless and has no independent policies of his own for changing Japan.

“He keeps saying yes to everyone which is not what Japan needs. The LDP, by choosing Obuchi, is indicating that it has not learnt a lesson from the election results and is resorting to the same system that supports power groups rather than genuine change for Japan,” he explained.

Obuchi won 225 of the 411 votes, while former Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiroku Kajiyama, 72, who was supported by Japan’s business community, garnered 102 votes. Reform-minded Health and Welfare Minister Junichiro Koizumi, 56, who is popular among younger politicians and the public, got 84 votes.

The new LDP president will be formally elected prime minister by the parliament on July 31.

Public dissent against the government’ poor economic policy reached a peak two weeks ago when voters withheld support to the LDP in the upper house elections.

The ruling party’s humiliating loss forced Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to tender his resignation a day after the election.

There was a growing expectation that the void would be filled by a charismatic politician. Businessmen were rooting for Kajiyama while the public was backing Koizumi.

But as things are done in Japan, faction support and Obuchi’s reputation as a peace-maker rather than a revolutionary, has won the day, say analysts. After his election, he called for party unity to overcome the difficult situation.

Experts say Obuchi’s faction has a lot of financial resources and through his choice of cabinet, to be announced next week, he will attempt to soothe ruffled feathers among powerful LDP blocs.

Despite unhappiness over the choice, experts note that Obuchi,’s consensus-building policy will help him to push through two important packages put forward by Hashimoto that are considered crucial to pull the Japanese economy out of the recession.

In his speeches last week Obuchi reiterated support for Hashimoto’s public works spending plans and bridge-bank plan that hopes to solve the bad-loan problems of Japanese banks. He also pledged to cut corporate and income taxes, another major plank of the economic revival plan.

Obuchi gained an important role in the current adminstration when Hashimoto appointed him foreign minister in September 1997. He has maintained Japan’s strong relations with Asia, a policy that is likely to be boosted during his tenure.

“He will meet Asia’s expectations for Japanese support. We will be seeing a message from him when he becomes prime minister that will put relations with Asia on the top,” explained economist Kunio Igusa at the Institute of Developing Affairs.

“Right now Obuchi, who is Foreign Minister, is acutely aware of this situation. While he will not be able to do much in concrete terms, such as increase development aid given Japan’s economic recession and the tense political siituation, he will strive to push Japan to play a bigger role in the recovery of Asia,” explained Igusa.

In Manila, Indonesian Foreign Minister Ali Alatas said he thinks the Japanese government will basically pursue to the same policies, since the new leader is from the same party.

“We continue to hope that Japan will get out of its temporary difficulties and continue to give strong support to countries affected in the region,” he said. Indonesia is one of the biggest beneficiaries of Japanese aid.

Apart from tackling the economic problems, Obuchi is also faced with Japan’s rising role in ensuring stability in Asia. With South Korea, Obuchi faces a territorial question on fishing in the Sea of Japan.

But what the public and the rest of the world will scrutinise is his handling of the economic crisis, which will put his leadership to a test.