POLITICS-BURMA: Opposition Heads for Showdown with Junta

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Analysis - Boonthan Sakanond

BANGKOK, Sep 21 1998 (IPS) - The latest act of defiance against the ruling military junta in Burma – the setting up of a panel representing duly-elected parliamentarians – has set the stage for a political showdown.

On Sep 16, the National League of Democracy (NLD) said it had set up a committee to represent and take decisions on behalf of 251 members of Parliament who were elected in the May 1990 general elections, but have been prevented by the junta from assuming their seats.

This is easily the most significant act of defiance against the junta since the 1988 pro-democracy movement, which was suppressed by the military and led to the assumption of power by the current junta 10 years ago last week.

Called the “Committee Representing the People’s Parliament”, the body elected a speaker for the Parliament and declared illegal all laws introduced by the military in the past 10 years.

Burmese oppositionists also said here they were preparing to announce the setting up of a provisional government in an open challenge to the junta, called the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). U Teddy Buri, who won a Parliament seat in 1990, said the call to set up a provisional government came amid “a real need for the (Burmese) people to be emboldened” given the “reign of fear inside Burma”.

Political analysts believe that if the committee representing Parliament gains recognition from the international community as the only legitimate government body in Burma, it could lead to a full-scale uprising against the junta, which lost the 1990 election but has refused to give up power.

“The Committee has decided to perform the functions of the Parliament until a formal Parliament session is called under the 1990 multi-party democratic election law”, said a statement from the committee.

“Laws, by-laws, regulations, orders and announcements which were enacted since September 18, 1988 are not legal so long as they are not approved by the ‘People’s Parliament’,” it said.

Another NLD statement said that the party was forced to take the move because apart from the military junta’s refusal to convene Parliament, it has also arrested over 185 MPs since May to prevent them from getting together.

The committee has named one of the arrested MPs, Saw Mra Aung, head of the Arakan League for Democracy, as chairman of Parliament. The NLD says MPs, comprising 54.6 percent of the Parliament’s surviving members, have authorised the committee to act on their behalf. Of 485 parliamentarians elected in 1990, 26 have died and 459 remain.

Significantly, a NLD statement on Sep 17 said its call for a Parliament was supported by the Shan State People’s Liberation Organisation, the Karenni All People’s Liberation Army and New Mon State Party – all three of which had previously agreed on a ceasefire with the junta. The fourth group supporting the NLD move was the New Kayan State Party, the statement said.

The path to the showdown began in late June, when Suu Kyi gave an ultimatum to the SPDC to convene Parliament by Aug 21. The military responded by arresting NLD MPs and hundreds of party workers and restricting Suu Kyi’s moves to visit supporters outside the capital.

“They (the military junta) say that convening Parliament will bring about a parallel government and fearing this, they are preventing it. It is very clear, if they fear a parallel government, then why don’t they conduct a dialogue instead of detaining our MPs,” NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi was quoted as saying in an interview just before the new committee was set up.

The Burmese junta has blocked the NLD, which won 392 of the 485 contested seats, from political power on the grounds that it must help draft a new constitution before passing power over to a civilian government.

“The NLD action has obvious parallels to the pro-democracy movement in the Phillipines, when Mrs Corazon Aquino formed a provisional government in 1986 while Marcos still claimed to be president,” said Thein Oo, justice minister in the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, the pro-democracy movement’s government in exile.

Many expect the new committee, after announcing the formation of a new government in Rangoon, to ask the international community to recognise it and Burmese citizens to defend it.

The NLD’s bold move comes at a time of increasing tension in Burma between pro-democracy activists and the government and on the heels of a minor revolt within the ranks of the Burmese military.

Since the beginning of September, major Burmese cities and towns have witnessed regular anti-government protests by college and high school students, workers and even Buddhist monks. Political observers say that another sign of the junta’s deep fear of a possible popular revolt is reflected in the escalation of arrests in recent months.

Reports from Burma, denied by SPDC authorities, say that on Sep 5 at least 15 high-ranking officers, including colonels, were arrested on charges of allegedly trying to set up a meeting with Suu Kyi.

The arrested officers include seven from the army, three from the navy and five from the air force. The arrests came soon after a speech by Suu Kyi saying that she has no intention of dividing the army ,but pointing out that the army and the people were one and should have the same interests in promoting a peaceful transition to democracy.

“It is very obvious that the people have one desire, which is to convene the parliament. We want the army to give the people this back-up support to fulfil their desires,” she was quoted as saying in the speech.

Pro-democracy activists in Rangoon say the SPDC has warned officers to be prepared for the possibility of a mass movement developing soon and every battalion told to prepare a counter force by keeping a company on alert and fully equipped.

They say one major or captain and three sergeants from each battalion were ordered to come to Rangoon by Sep 4 to attend a counter-riot training course attended by more than 1,000 officers from different battalions.

“There has been trouble brewing within the rank and file of the army for some time due to the economic crisis, but this is the first time there are reports of discontent among higher level officers,” said an Asian diplomat in Rangoon.

With prices skyrocketing in the past year many soldiers, especially in the frontline areas battling ethnic rebel groups, are reported to have sold off army equipment and even uniforms to raise money.

Analysts say that the key to the success of any popular uprising in Burma will of course rest primarily on the Burmese people, but will also depend on the quick response of the international community, not least the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Some diplomats are not too optimistic about the junta’s ouster soon. But others believe that with the global economic turmoil overturning the plans and assumptions of governments throughout the world, it is only a matter of time before seemingly well entrenched political realities change too.