RIGHTS: Whatever Happened to the Balkan Stability Pact?

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - Wes Jonasson

ATHENS, Dec 21 1999 (IPS) - The citizens of southeastern Europe, the war-ravaged Kosovar Albanians and Serbs; the divided communities of Bosnia; the Croats, and their needy neighbours, the Romanians and Bulgarians, are all glumly expecting a Christmas stocking that will be virtually empty.

The Serbs, who are in everyone’s bad books, may not even receive that proverbial lump of coal.

Last July at Sarajevo, the leaders of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty organisation) who had ostensibly intervened to end a brutal conflict in Kosovo all took up the theme of war reconstruction, regional investment and development, and the area’s eventual integration into the European Union (EU).

This idea had been first put forward by German Foreign minister Joschka Fisher while the bombs were falling.

He called it the “Balkan Stability Pact” – an agreement between the EU and Washington to bind up the wounds of war; to advance the economic development of all of the countries affected by the trauma of conflict and transition to capitalism. Pledges were made amounting to several billion dollars.

The area would not be permitted to fester in poverty and old hatreds. The Balkans, the scene of innumerable wars, would be up-lifted, dressed-up, and reformed. It would finally sit at the same table with a wealthy western Europe.

In the six months since Sarajevo less and less is being heard about the pact except for periodic announcements from various officials that this or that study is being undertaken and that project approvals by the EU and its European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will be a lengthy process.

Georgos Zavvos, a Greek consultant for Balkan reconstruction with the European Commission (EC-the EU’s executive branch) also recently reminded potential contractors that the bidding process required by the commission is a lengthy one.

Those hoping to do business rebuilding the Balkans will have to prove that they not only have the expertise to do the job – but also the capital to undertake expensive contracts in what may prove to be very difficult operating conditions.

Just when the contractors will be paid remains a little unclear; but chances are they will be major companies from the EU – not for example – a small, or middling construction company from Macedonia.

Since Sarajevo, part of the problem with the stability pact is that the US and Britain have insisted that Yugoslavia – really Serbia – must be excluded from any reconstruction aid; that full economic sanctions must be kept clamped on.

Some EU members (Italy and Greece) were inclined to relent on this; but have had to comply with US President Clinton’s policy that no aid goes to Belgrade as long as President Slobodan Milosevic remains in power.

Any number of economic analysts and officials have stated that getting Serbia back on its feet and again functioning as a trading partner with its neighbours is central to the success of the pact.

That is the position of Carl Bildt, former United Nations High Representative for Bosnia, and Johannes Linn, a World Bank regional director.

“We believe that as long as Yugoslavia is not integrated into the regional economy, the overall regional integration and the progress of the region in terms of its long term economic and social security will likely be slower,” Linn stated recently.

Throwing cold water on Sarajevo’s sentiments and promises, he also said, “It would be a mistake for the countries of southeastern Europe to expect that there will be a large flow of resources into the region.” This was said in early November when the chill of winter was already in the air.

Susan Woodward, a US scholar who has studied Yugoslavia first hand for two decades, projects an even bleaker picture. She is of the opinion that the pact is blocked at the region’s centre by the apparent durability of the Milosevic regime.

She believes, ” … the region could settle into a stalemate of chaos and western crisis management for years to come.”

This winter, many in the Balkans would welcome a sack of coal – even if it is of the soft, brown variety, that doesn’t burn very well.