POLITICS-SOUTH ASIA: Kashmir Cease-fire Ends, But Talks Hope Alive

By Ranjit Devraj Reprint | | Print |

Ranjit Devraj

NEW DELHI, Aug 9 2000 (IPS) - A key Kashmiri militant group has called off its cease-fire with Indian troops, but political analysts say the way has been opened for further peace talks with the separatists.

The Hizbul Mujahideen, the leading Kashmiri secessionist group, Tuesday ended its two-week-old ceasefire when New Delhi refused to involve Islamabad in talks to find a way out of the decade-old violence in India’s northern border province.

However, analysts here do not think this is the end of the road for the boldest initiative yet by New Delhi to tackle the Kashmir crisis.

According to Jasjit Singh, director of the prestigious Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, a government think-tank, the cease- fire showed that genuinely Kashmiri militant groups are serious about peace.

There are more than 150 secessionist outfits in the Kashmir Valley in India’s Jammu and Kashmir state. India holds on to a third of the former princely state, which joined the country after the subcontinent’s partition into India and Pakistan half a century ago.

India and Pakistan have fought two wars over Kashmir, which Pakistan claims. Pakistan controls a third of the province. New Delhi accuses Islamabad of training, arming and sending mercenaries to battle Indian troops.

Leading media commentator, Pran Chopra, says the Hizbul Mujahideen will now be under pressure to show that it has gained something out of the cease-fire offer.

“But the HM (Hizbul Mujahideen) did not come thus far only to go back empty-handed and risk torment at the hands of those who have slammed it for offering a cease-fire in the first place,” Chopra said, writing in The Hindu newspaper Wednesday.

“Both sides will try to show such success as they can, and at least will not shut the door on such future possibilities as may arise, now that the largest Kashmiri organisation of militancy has changed the scene by taking this unprecedented step,” he added.

Chopra expects many hurdles ahead, but adds, “dead ends may not become permanent (now).”

Singh expects a split in the ranks of the Kashmiri militants. Groups, which include foreign mercenaries, such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (soldiers of god), may now target the Hizbul Mujahideen and blame the killings on Indian armed forces, he says.

Manoj Joshi, senior editor and analyst for the ‘Times of India’ newspaper describes the cease-fire and the bid to hold talks, as “the beginning of a long process.”

“Peace in Kashmir cannot happen overnight. What is important is that a beginning has been made. There is going to be a process of two steps forwards two steps back,” he said.

Joshi thinks that the Hizbul Mujahideen in the Kashmir valley is under pressure to reflect the aspirations of the people they claim to represent, and right now, the people want peace.

Chopra agrees. “If the desire of the people of the State (Kashmir) for safety from guns was the main push behind even such a large organisation as HM, then its force cannot be ignored by other (militant) organisations also,” he said.

The cease-fire and preliminary talks with Indian negotiators in the Kashmir capital Srinagar, encouraged many Hizbul Mujahideen leaders to surface.

It would now be difficult for them to go back into hiding, adding to the pressure on the militants to return to the negotiating table at some stage, say analysts.

According to unnamed senior Home Ministry officials quoted by newspapers Wednesday, the government’s communication lines with the Hizbul Mujahideen are still open.

Significantly, soon after the Jul. 24 unilateral cease-fire offer, the militant group’s Pakistan-based leader, Syed Salahuddin, was thrown out of the United Jehad Council (UJC), an umbrella organisation of 15 different Kashmiri militant outfits based in Pakistan.

There were even differences within the Hizbul Mujahideen ranks. A key leader was reported to be speaking in favour of continuing the cease-fire, despite New Delhi’s rejection of the demand to involve Pakistan in the talks.

Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee told Parliament that there was no question of opening a dialogue with Pakistan unless a “conducive atmosphere” was created first. New Delhi wants Islamabad to first stop backing the Kashmiri militants.

Analysts here see Islamabad’s hand in a letter written by the Hizbul Mujahideen chief to foreign diplomats based in Islamabad, in which he demanded Pakistan’s involvement in the talks with India.

Before the cease-fire was called off, a Pakistan foreign ministry spokesperson told television channels in Islamabad that since Pakistan and India are internationally recognised as the two principal parties in the Kashmir dispute, both have to be involved in the talks.