POLITICS: A Third Force Underway in Nigeria

By Toye Olori Reprint | | Print |

Toye Olori

LAGOS, Feb 13 2003 (IPS) - Fragmented, poor and weak. This is how analysts describe Nigeria’s 27 new political parties.

As individuals, these parties have little chance to win this year’s general elections, they warn.

The 27 parties – widely regarded as underdogs – will meet in Abuja, the administrative capital of Nigeria, this week to forge a common front, known as ‘The Third Force’, to fight the April elections.

‘The Third Force’ is seeking an alternative to President Olusegun Obasanjo and main opposition leader Muhammadu Buhari – the forerunners in the April polls.

The 27 parties are aware that their chances are slim, if they failed to close their ranks, against the powerful ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Nigerian People’s Party (ANPP). Incumbent President Obasanjo is the PDP candidate, while Buhari is the ANPP’s flag bearer. ”The coalition is necessitated by the need to address the overwhelming power of incumbency and the level of resources available to both parties. The PDP is so powerful in terms of money that even the (27) political parties put together cannot match it naira for naira (Nigeria’s currency). But, we are determined to give them a good fight,” says Balarabe Musa of the People’s Redemption Party (PRP). Although they have welcomed the proposed merger, analysts and politicians wonder how the 27 parties – with different manifestos and programmes – could agree on a single candidate. ”The move is commendable. I wish the parties all the best because my party, the National Democratic Party (NDP), has been the proponent of such a coalition since we challenged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) registration policy and won as a team,” says Kenny Martins, NDP presidential aspirant.

He says: ”Politics is a game of possibilities. Since it happened in Kenya and Turkey, it can also happen in Nigeria”, referring to last year’s general elections in Kenya and Turkey where opposition coalitions defeated ruling parties.

But Dele Bodunde, a political analyst in Lagos, believes ”Nigeria is not ripe for the type of coalition forged in Kenya and Turkey because of selfish interests of politicians”.

Gani Fawehinmi, presidential candidate of the National Conscience Party (NCP), has confirmed this week’s meeting in spite of the Feb 12 deadline, set by the Independent National Electoral Commission, for submitting the list of presidential candidates.

”We are working out an electoral scheme that will surprise our opponents,” says Fawehinmi. ”Much as it is possible to have a coalition, it will be almost next to impossible to have a consensus presidential candidate since almost all the parties have nominated their flag bearers for the April general elections,” he says. ”But anything can happen in politics.”

The 27 political parties owe their ability to run in the April polls to a court case. It began last year when the INEC announced the registration of three parties out of about 33 political associations that had applied for registration, bringing to six registered political parties. Immediately, five of the unregistered associations led by Fawehinmi, went to court to challenge INEC’s decision. Nigeria’s Supreme Court nullified some of the INEC’s guidelines for the registration of political parties. This legal victory provided the basis for the registration of more parties, bringing to 30 the total number of political parties in Nigeria. Immediately, Fawehinmi launched a campaign aimed to merge the 27 parties to fight the April general elections, as a single bloc. Nigeria, with a population of 120 million, restored multi-party democracy in 1999, after 16 years of uninterrupted military rule.

President Obasanjo, a former military ruler, was elected after the death of Nigeria’s dictator, General Sani Abacha, in 1999.