POLITICS: An Attack on Iraq a Mistake – African Intellectuals

By Toye Olori Reprint | | Print |

Toye Olori

LAGOS, Mar 17 2003 (IPS) - Belated though, African intellectuals have joined their colleagues around the world in calling on the United States not to risk destabilising the world by launching an attack on Iraq.

”Iraq is a developing nation like most African countries. Whatever happens to Iraq will affect global economy, especially the fragile African and Arab economies,” warns Ayo Akinbobola of the University of Lagos.

”If there is a war in Iraq,” Ayo says, ”Nigeria will be forced to pay more for fuel import to compliment its local product.”

Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa, contributing about two million barrels per day of crude oil, followed by Algeria and Libya. But Nigeria’s four refineries produce less than 50 percent of their combined capacity mainly due to ageing machinery, a phenomenon that forces the country to import refined fuel to compliment shortfalls.

The effects of an impending war in Iraq are already having their toll on the West African country’s petroleum sector. Importers last week called on government to increase the price of fuel from 26 Naira to 37 Naira a litre.

One U.S. dollar is equal to 100 Naira.

But political analysts say it would be suicidal for President Olusegun Obasanjo, who is running for a second term of office in April, to raise the price of fuel. Previous increases in the pump price had resulted in protests across the country.

If a war breaks out, Bola Akinterinwa of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), says ”non-oil producing countries will bear the heaviest burden. And Africa will be unable to cope with the implications”.

France, Germany and China have opposed a U.S.-led attack on Iraq. ”But African countries which may not support America will likely be sanctioned by the United States. And this will affect bilateral relations between them and the United States,” predicts Akinterinwa.

Akinbobola warns that a war in Iraq will also affect the prospect of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), a programme, launched last year, to kick-start the development on the continent.

”If there is a war in Iraq, the concern for ensuring domestic security is enough to create havoc for NEPAD. International air travel would be in disarray, ships will not be too sure they would get to their destinations, even local transportation can be in turmoil and tourism would suffer. There would be uncertainty in the oil system and international trade would suffer,” says Akinbobola.

African leaders, meeting in Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, last week mandated NEPAD secretariat to study the effect of the Gulf war on the African continent.

”If they can submit a report to us in the next two weeks, we will accept it,” says Obasanjo.

Akinbobola says the fortunes of Africa are better promoted in an international economic order in which there is no war. ”Whenever there is war, everybody suffers,” he says.

He blames the Iraqi leadership for refusing to listen to the international community.

”One would have loved to see a situation in which the Iraqis themselves are aware of what is happening. Unfortunately they have done nothing to make themselves an avoidable target of allied forces. If Iraq had not invaded and violated the territorial integrity of Iran in the early 1980s and of Kuwait in the early 1990s, Iraq would have been just like any other developing nation with the prospect of achieving her developmental aspirations as programmed by leaders of that country,” he says.

Akinbobola appeals to Third World leaders to speak out against their colleagues who violate their collective security. ”If there is a Third World member who does things that cannot be defended by any of us, now is the time to let him realise that he may be exposing everybody to danger,” he says.

For Akinterinwa, the crisis between Iraq and the United States should encourage Third World countries like Nigeria to begin developing their own nuclear weapon as a bargaining chip.

”All these countries (the United States, Britain) have weapons of mass destruction but are asking others to destroy theirs; that is not fair. Nigeria should develop its nuclear weapon. We have the capabilities; we should develop it and then start to negotiate non-proliferation,” he suggests.