POLITICS: Bush Gets Reassurances, Troops – and More – from Tokyo

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Oct 17 2003 (IPS) - In sharp contrast to the cautious stance he displayed in Europe, U.S. President George W Bush, hoping to attract cash and troops in Asia for Iraq’s reconstruction, got much-needed reassurance from Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi on Friday.

Analysts say Koizumi did his best to keep Bush happy at this Friday’s dinner, where the two leaders met to boost sagging international support for Bush and cement what is often called the world’s most important relationship.

Ironically, these ties were built on U.S. reconstruction of Japan following its surrender to the Allied forces in 1945, a fact that acquires special relevance as the U.S. government tries to manage an occupied Iraq whose affairs are run by a U.S.-backed administration.

”Really frank” and ”fantastic” were some of the words Koizumi used to describe his meeting with Bush. ”The relationship between Japan and the United States is very good,” Bush was quoted as saying.

On Friday, Japan formally pledged 1.5 billion U.S. dollars in grants in 2004 and the dispatch of its armed troops to Iraq, the country’s single largest deployment since the adoption of its U.S.-drafted pacifist Constitution in 1945.

The government is expected to increase its contributions to 5 billion dollars in 2007. The sum will comprise close to 10 percent of the estimated 55 billion dollars needed for occupied Iraq.

Japan shouldered 10 to 25 percent of reconstruction aid to Cambodia, East Timor and Afghanistan.

”Bush walks away from Japan with concrete gifts whereas commitment in Europe is still slow. No doubt, the welcome he got in Tokyo symbolises Washington’s burning desire to steer Iraq on a similar course," says Kichiya Kobayashi, well-known political commentator and author.

While on a whirlwind tour of six Asian countries, many of which he will be visiting for the first time, Bush will be attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bangkok starting on Oct. 20.

Among other countries, he will be visiting Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore. Analysts here see the flurry of stopovers as part of a diplomatic bid by the leader of the world’s only superpower to gain support for his invasion of Iraq and amid floundering attempts to set up a new administration there.

”Unable to find the kind of support he wants in Europe and facing new damage in the United States, Bush has turned his attention to Asia. Japan has responded to this quest, proving and sets a positive tone for Asia, " opined the ‘Asahi’ newspaper, in an editorial Friday.

Still, analysts warn that official trappings do not necessarily translate into an overall embrace of the United States by the Japanese.

Public polls indicate that Koizumi is walking a tightrope – trying to convince a nervous public that he is not going to bow to U.S. pressure but at the same time protecting Japan’s security interests, which are heavily dependent on the Japan-U.S. security pact signed in 1960.

"The impression is Koizumi is caving into U.S. pressure. This could cost Koizumi dearly, " points out Tetsuro Kato, who teaches globalisation and peace studies at Hitotsubashi University.

According to Kato, while Koizumi enjoys high public approval rates, the dispatch of the Self-Defence Forces to Iraq at a time when U.S. soldiers and aid personnel are being attacked and when no U.N. resolution covers the occupation, translates into a highly sensitive national issue.

The latest poll taken soon after the approval of an anti-terrorism bill in the Diet or Parliament on Aug. 1 indicates that the majority of Japanese – 52 percent – are dead against a Japanese deployment to Iraq until there is stability in the country.

A major grouse among Japan’s pacifist public is Bush’s ordering of a military attack on Iraq in March without a U.N. resolution, and the inability of U.S. troops to find weapons of mass destruction in the country six months after the fall of the regime of Saddam Hussein.

Against such a backdrop, analysts contend that the death of even a single Japanese soldier in Iraq could work against Koizumi in the Nov. 9 general election – and this is not something the U.S. government would want at this stage.

Kobayashi points out that opposition parties have not extended their approval for sending armed forces to Iraq, which means that doing so poses an even greater political risk for Koizumi.

Koizumi, a reform-minded politician who boasts of close to 62 percent approval ratings, is seeking a second term after dissolving the Diet or parliament two weeks ago.

In addition to forging Japanese policy on the Iraqi issue, Koizumi faces a tough battle to pull Japan out of its long economic recession, especially now that it has been showing slow signs of recovery.

Indeed, the media has been raising questions on the new aid package to Iraq given the economic recession.

The respected daily ‘Tokyo Shimbun’ noted Friday that Japan’s new aid pledge could be more palatable to taxpayers grappling with economic hardship, but only if they can be reassured that the money would not go to supporting Bush but to the Iraqi people.

The newspaper called for concrete plans to be presented to the public ahead of the general election.

The ‘Asahi’, summing up the general mood, refers to Bush’s visit as cold water thrown on the economy for his criticism of Japan’s efforts to stop the further appreciation of the yen against the dollar, in a bid to protect Japan’s export trade.

The U.S. dollar lost more than 10 percent against the yen in October following a slide in the U.S. economy, which is under pressure from the huge resources it spends in supporting the war effort and occupation of Iraq.

"Bush poses a difficult decision for Japan. But Koizumi must take an independent stance on Iraq," insists the ‘Asahi’ newspaper.