POLITICS-SERBIA: Choice Looms Between Past and Future

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Dec 26 2003 (IPS) - The parliamentary elections in Serbia this Sunday are turning into a contest between ways of the past and values for the future, analysts say.

Some 6.5 million voters can have their say in the elections called early. Nineteen parties and coalition groups are competing for 250 seats.

These are the second parliamentary elections after the fall of former leader Slobodan Milosevic three years ago. The elections were called after the 18-member coalition of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) fell apart a month ago.

DOS swept away Milosevic’s Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) with a two-thirds majority in the last elections called two months after the fall of Milosevic in December 2000. Those elections brought a break from the communist past. The SPS had been heir to the Communist Party that ruled since World War II.

It was only after those elections that Serbia entered a period of transformation into a democratic and market-oriented society.

But hopes for a swift transition melted away, and the ruling coalition began to come apart. The political scene now looks quite different.

Serbia’s energetic and reform-oriented prime minister Zoran Djinjdic was assassinated in March. The assassination was masterminded by an organised crime group that had thrived under Milosevic.

The DOS broke into small groups over the following months, and most are contesting separately now. On the other hand many voters are showing an inclination towards nationalist and conservative parties.

Public opinion surveys conducted by three major polling agencies all suggest that the ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS) will obtain the largest share of the vote, some 25 percent. The party is led by Vojislav Seselj, who awaits trial for war crimes in The Hague. SRS was Milosevic’s partner in power in the 1990s.

Both Seselj and Milosevic top the electoral lists of their parties. They have run their campaign over the phone from detention.

The war crimes tribunal banned such communication last week. But taking advantage of a relaxed Christmas atmosphere, Seselj addressed his supporters again on Christmas Day. The message was broadcast by Serbian media.

The opinion polls point to the nationalist but moderate Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) as runner up. The party was a former member of DOS. Its share of votes will rise to 18 percent, the polls suggest.

Between 13 and 18 percent of the vote can be expected for a group where the Democratic Party (DS) led by Djindjic’s heir Boris Tadic is a leading partner. Several economic experts are members of this group.

The remaining votes are expected to be shared by Milosevic’s SPS and the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO).

Several analysts say the elections will not solve the crisis because no one will be able to form a government on their own. No party is willing to form a coalition with Seselj’s SRS. A coalition between parties that left DOS (DSS, G17 and DS) is also unlikely.

"It will be either an unstable government or a stalemate, either of which will most probably lead to another election in only months," analyst Ivan Torov told IPS. "Such a situation will only make things worse, because the process of reforms has already stopped."

Whatever was achieved in Serbia after the fall of Milosevic has been taken for granted by many Serbs. These measures include reintegration of the country into the international community, privatisation, social care and a gradual rise in living standards.

"But people wanted and expected more," says analyst Danilo Sukovic. "No one could tell them in 2000 and no one is telling them now that they have to live through at least five years of blood and sweat. Everything else is a lie."

Serbia was economically devastated under Milosevic. The final blow came in 11 weeks of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) bombing in 1999 aimed at ending a Serb crackdown on ethnic Albanians in Kosovo.

After the fall of Milosevic, more than two billion dollars of foreign donations came into Serbia. Infrastructure and factories are being reconstructed after more than a decade of negligence.

Privatisation of still healthy companies brought another 1.3 billion dollars into state coffers. The social care system has seen substantial improvement; 1.3 million pensions are now being paid on time. The state took care of some 600,000 Serb refugees from Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo who had fled the wars.

"People wanted more and want more, and this government will be punished for what it did and did not do," Torov said. "That is how things work in this country that lived through a turbulent and confusing decade that still takes its toll on all of us."