MALAYSIA: Post-Mahathir Poll a Tussle for Malay Majority Vote

By Baradan Kuppusamy Reprint | | Print |

Baradan Kuppusamy

KUALA KEDAH, Malaysia, Mar 19 2004 (IPS) - Under former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, the government was blind to the kind of biting poverty found in places like Kuala Kedah in northern Kedah state, where poor Malay fishermen live in crowded stagnation in shanty-like conditions on the mouth of the Kedah river.

The sea breeze is strong, dry and hot and the air is filled with the smell of decaying fish. Across the river a new structure has taken shape – a large, Scottish castle in brick-red colour set incongruously amidst the smell, seabirds and scores of fishing boats stacked side by side on the river.

The size and architecture of the castle – really a jetty for luxury yacht and ferries taking tourists to the duty-free haven of Langkawi – is glaringly out of place in a poor riverside Malay community that has quaint wooden Moorish-style mosques, stray cows and fish drying in the sun.

One could feel the simmering anger among the fishermen.

Such insensitivity to local people and their culture are among the factors that led to the loss by the ruling United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) party of Kuala Kedah – located in Mahathir’s north-west home state of Kedah – to the main opposition Islamic party in 1999.

The outcome of the Mar. 21 parliamentary and state elections is being closely watched here.

In 1999 UMNO lost not just Kuala Kedah but some 27 Malay majority seats to Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and its ally, the National Justice Party of former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim.

But this week, some 2,000 of the same Kuala Kedah fishermen waited under the scorching noonday sun to greet Mahathir’s successor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Where before in 1999, only empty chairs greeted government leaders in Kuala Kedah, this week the same fishermen pressed and pushed to greet Abdullah and shake his hand.

Abdullah’s speech is long and flat. He never once mentions his political enemy – the Islamist party PAS – despite the fact that its leaders daily attack him and call him a fake Islamist.

As in his other speeches, Abdullah speaks about the weather, the price of fish, maize and rice and how to save a part of the fishermen’s meager income. He tells them the schemes he has to improve their livelihood.

”What we promise to do are not political gimmicks. What we say are serious matters that we want to carry out after the election,” he said.

In north-east Terengganu state Thursday, he added: ”If we win, we will bring massive development programmes and changes never seen before in this state but we need to secure every vote.”

He quotes verses from the Koran and in Arabic as he lectures about patience, thrift and hard work and translates the verses into the Malay language. ”We must teach them the true Islam which emphasis on development and acquiring knowledge. We want Muslims to live in peace, not weak or remain poor,” Abdullah said.

In the short five months after taking over from Mahathir, Abdullah has made a difference in how ordinary Malaysians see the 14-party National Front government – even in places like Kuala Kedah where PAS’ influence is strong and deep.

Abdullah has staked his reputation and his political future on winning back the Malays who held back support for the Mahathir government due to what they saw as its insensitivity to poverty and Islam, its treatment of Anwar Ibrahim, its corruption, cronyism and nepotism.

”In the short five months since taking over Abdullah has made a major impact on society. He has given people hope. People see him as sincere,” peace activist and analyst Dr Chandra Muzaffar told IPS in an interview. ”A few people worry the changes are temporary and part of a political gimmick, but I think Abdullah is dead serious about less corruption and more transparency.”

But the question is can he win back the Malay support that UMNO lost to PAS?

Support for PAS surged in the 1999 election on the back of a backlash against the Mahathir government. The Islamic party captured Kelantan and Terengganu states and made major inroads into Kedah.

In some constituencies nearly 75 percent of Malay Muslims – who make up 60 percent of Malaysia’s 25 million people – voted for the opposition.

Much of the anger was over what is widely seen as the politically motivated jailing of Anwar Ibrahim, Mahathir’s deputy and heir apparent at the time.

Poor Malays had also compared Mahathir with the Tok Guru Nik Aziz, PAS’ spiritual leader. Although the Tok Guru is chief minister of Kelantan state and entitled to luxuries, they said, he drives around in a beaten car, lives in a hut and dispenses everyday homespun wisdom.

Here, the PAS symbols – a white moon on a green background – crowds every nook and corner of the Malay heartland states of Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis and even the central state of Pahang. But something has changed in the perception of the Malays, who speak approvingly of Abdullah.

”Pak Lah (the widely used nickname of Abdullah) is like the Tok Guru…he is gentle, caring and learned in Islam,” says Kuala Kedah fisherman Mamat Jantan Bilah, 58.

Abdullah has charged key officials with corruption, ordered a restructuring of the police force and forced the civil service to climb down and serve the people.

With this, an improving economy and with the majority of the four million Chinese Malaysian voters backing him, Abdullah is clearly set to win a comfortable two-thirds of the 219 seats in the expanded parliament when the 10.3 million eligible Malaysians vote on Sunday.

But his future and that of the ruling UMNO party and to a large extent the future stability and growth of multi-cultural secularism would depend not on the size of his parliamentary victory, but on how much ground UMNO is able to win back from what it lost to PAS in 1999.

”Fighting and winning against PAS is really a major effort but Abdullah has made all the right moves to win Malay support,” Chandra said.

The government campaign to win Malay support is built around Abdullah’s Islamic credentials — both his grandfather and his father were born in Mecca and studied in Saudi Arabia. His grandfather founded one of the country’s most respected ‘madrasah’ or religious schools and Abdullah himself is a graduate of Islamic studies.

Abdullah has promised to make Arabic and Koranic studies compulsory for Muslims in primary schools. He asked the police, the Anti Corruption Agency and the Inland Revenue Department to vet the background of government candidates before allowing them to contest.

As a result, Ong Kian Ming, a senior policy analyst with the Sedar Institute, told IPS: ”I expect Abdullah to win as much as 80 percent of the 219 seats in parliament. His personality and the measures he has taken and those that he has promised has a favourable impact on voters.”

The tussle is really then between UMNO and PAS for Malay support in about 90 Malay-majority constituencies – the overriding issue is Islam first, followed by development, democracy and transparency.

It is a clash between the softspoken, moderate Islam of Abdullah and the fiery mixture of ”heaven for true believers and hell for idolaters” promised by PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang.

If he convinces enough Malays to want his version of Islam, Abdullah would also inherit the elusive mantle as leader of Islamic Malaysia – a mantle Mahathir had lost to PAS.