POLITICS-CYPRUS: Reunification Bid Brings a Bigger Divide

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Vanya Walker-Leigh

NICOSIA, Cyprus, Apr 24 2004 (IPS) - Two referenda on Saturday April 24 failed to deliver a reunited Cyprus in time for EU enlargement May 1.

More than 75 percent of Greek Cypriot voters said ‘no’ to the UN brokered ‘Annan Plan’ for reunification, while about 65 percent of Turkish Cypriots voted in favour.

So what happens next?

The present Republic of Cyprus becomes a European Union (EU) member May 1, even though its (Greek Cypriot) government only controls 64 percent of the island’s territory with a population of 600,000. EU law will only be applied in this area.

The UN-patrolled and heavily mined 180km ‘green line’ (from four metres to 7 km wide) dividing the island will become the EU’s southernmost external border, implying far tighter controls at the few crossing points than at present on the Greek Cypriot side.

The 30-year isolation of the so-called ‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’ (TRNC) will end. The 80,000 Turkish Cypriots, and 115,000 Turks brought in as settlers by Turkey since the 1974 partition had been promised a ‘new deal’ by the EU and the United States if their community turned in a ‘yes’ majority.

This deal could involve lifting of the trade embargo on the TRNC, establishing direct air connections, and extending economic aid which could spark an inflow of investment, in particular into the tourist and infrastructure sectors.

At present the TRNC economy is decrepit. The average income of Turkish Cypriots is one-fifth that of Greek Cypriots. There is no foreign investment. Poverty and unemployment are widespread, and more than 55,000 Turkish Cypriots have emigrated to Europe and North America.

The high grade road system maintained by the 40,000-strong Turkish military contrasts with badly deteriorated public services and low-standard tourist accommodation. Casinos (not allowed in the Greek Cypriot sector) are the most successful ‘industry’.

The gambling business is closely followed by money laundering, drugs, people trafficking and prostitution, says a Turkish Cypriot journalist. The area is welcomed by wealthy international criminals since its non-status protects them from international arrest warrants.

Just after the referenda results were announced, the European Commission, the executive of the EU, stated that it would submit proposals on this area to the EU foreign ministers’ council in Luxemburg Monday (April 26).

The Greek Cypriot government has already announced that it will take measures to benefit the Turkish Cypriot area. Some 60,000 Turkish Cypriots have been issued Republic of Cyprus passports on request, and qualify for free social services on their visits south.

Turkey will try to obtain some international recognition of the TRNC as a sovereign state, and is reportedly focusing efforts on Arab and other Islamic states since Western countries have made clear they will not take this step.

The absence of a Cyprus settlement will no longer hinder Turkey’s ambition to start EU accession talks – although other obstacles remain. Turkey must meet a series of criteria relating to human rights and democracy, with the European Commission due to issue a status report in October.

France and Germany are known to have major reservations about Turkish membership. But most EU members and the United States strongly favour Turkish entry into the EU, to consolidate Europe’s southern flank bordering the ever more volatile Middle East.

The United Nations Security Council will review the Cyprus question April 29, after a failed attempt April 21 to adopt a resolution offering international guarantees for the implementation of the Annan Plan.

Although 14 Security Council members supported the UK-U.S. draft, Russia vetoed it claiming that it did not wish to influence the referenda outcome. The failure of the resolution blew away the last chance of a ‘yes’ vote from Greek Cypriots, since the leading coalition party AKEL had stated it would reverse its ‘no’ stand if international guarantees emerged from the UN.

Under the Annan plan the republic would have been a federal government with two equal states, one Turkish Cypriot and one Greek Cypriot. The president and vice-president were to have rotated between a Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot.

The number of Greek and Turkish troops on the island would be gradually reduced to a maximum of 6,000 by 2011 and to 1,600 by 2018. Currently, there are 46,000 Turkish and Turkish Cypriot troops in the north and 16,000 Greek and Greek Cypriot troops in the south.

A 48-seat Senate would be divided equally between Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots.

While the Annan Plan became null and void when the referenda results emerged, the UN force in Cyprus (1200 soldiers) will continue to patrol the green line and supervise the 30-year old ceasefire.

A critical appraisal of the UN’s five-year brokering efforts will certainly ensue, focusing in particular on the extremely tight deadline imposed on Cypriot voters who were given less than three weeks to absorb the 220-page ‘foundation agreement’ accompanied by 9,000 pages of annexes. These details of the fifth Annan Plan were issued March 31 at the end of unsuccessful UN sponsored negotiations in Switzerland.

The Cyprus government will have to face up to harsh international criticism for advocating a ‘no’ vote, failing to make a balanced presentation of the plan to voters, and allowing state television to ban appearances by senior UN and EU leaders.

The government must also deal with accusations of intimidation of the ‘yes’ campaigners, with questions about the huge financial backing to the ‘no’ campaign, and with warnings of an economic backlash against the Cyprus economy.

But Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos who had called on his compatriots to vote ‘no’ said “this is not the end of the road; I remain focused on reaching a bizonal, bicommunal federation settlement.”

Greek Foreign Minister Petros Molyviatis said before the referenda “I think that the need will arise once again to look for a solution to the Cyprus problem, perhaps not the day after a rejection of the Annan plan, but in the course of events.”