MIDEAST: Mubarak’s Aches Bring Succession Anxiety

By Cam McGrath Reprint | | Print |

Cam McGrath

CAIRO, Jun 21 2004 (IPS) - Rumours that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is suffering a serious health crisis have sparked fresh concerns about a possible successor.

The 76-year-old President has postponed a number of meetings this month for what Egyptian officials are describing as "unrelated and minor" health issues. Minor or not, the incidents have renewed focus on the issue of succession in the Arab world’s most populous country (76 million).

Mubarak took office after the assassination of president Anwar al-Sadat by Islamic militants in 1981. Many suspect the Arab leader is now grooming his second son, 40- year-old Gamal, to take over the presidency after him.

Gamal Mubarak’s nomination in 2002 as head of a political committee in the ruling National Democratic Party only served to reinforce this view. Both have publicly denied any plans for a father-to-son succession.

"The regime in Egypt is republican – there is no hereditary transfer of power. This happened in a certain country, but it will not happen in Egypt," President Mubarak said recently in a clear reference to Syria, where Bashar al-Assad became president after his father Hafez died in 2000.

Mubarak is serving his fourth consecutive six-year term as president. He has never publicly named a vice-president or successor.

"If he was willing to name a vice-president, he would have done it a long time ago," Hassan Nafaa, head of the political science department at Cairo University told IPS. "By nominating a vice-president now it might be (perceived) that the President himself has selected his own successor, and I don’t think that would be accepted by the Egyptian people."

According to the Egyptian constitution, if the President dies without appointing a vice- president, the speaker of parliament assumes responsibility for 60 days while the parliament selects a new president. The candidate must then be endorsed in a referendum.

Analysts say that if it comes to this, a power struggle could ensue.

"Conventional wisdom is that a candidate, whose name is approved by President Mubarak, has already been nominated and is known to a closed circle of high powers," says Diaa Rashwan of the Al-Ahram Centre for Strategic and Political Studies.

According to Rashwan, Egypt’s next president will almost certainly be a military man. "The army is one of the essential elements of our political life after the July revolution," he told IPS.

Since the overthrow of its monarchy in July 1952, all four of Egypt’s presidents have been from branches of the armed forces. Mohammed Naguib, Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar al-Sadat were officers in the Egyptian army. President Hosni Mubarak was an air force commander.

Gamal Mubarak, an investment banker and reform economist has no military background. This could seriously undermine his credibility among the people and especially the armed forces, stressed Rashwan.

"The Egyptian situation in the Middle East is one in which we have a real concern for and risk to national security," he said. "Gamal does not have the experience…so I don’t believe that he would be a real candidate."

If a military background is a pre-requisite then defence minister Mohammed Hussein Tantawi should be a front-runner. The 68-year-old decorated war veteran was a leading contender until age caught up with him.

"I don’t know exactly what happened, but they said that his health is not good," said Rashwan. He described Tantawi as a model officer, but said his lack of diplomatic experience could be an obstacle. "He is basically a uniform without politics."

Arab League secretary-general Amr Moussa is politics without a uniform. The 67-year- old career diplomat enjoyed immense public support for his sharp criticism of Israel during his 10-year tenure as foreign minister.

"I think that if it were up to the people, Moussa would be our next president," says mass communications student Noha Sayed.

Moussa’s popularity may have been his downfall. Many believe Mubarak’s decision to reassign him to the ailing Arab League was motivated by jealousy. Analysts say his chances of ever filling a presidential role are slim.

The name most commonly heard in political circles these days is Omar Sulieman, head of Egyptian intelligence. For decades he has operated quietly behind the scenes. Lately, however, Mubarak has given him an increasingly visible role.

"Sulieman is much more credible than (other military officers) and obviously has the confidence of the President," said Nafaa.

He said Mubarak has entrusted Sulieman with a number of sensitive foreign policy issues, including two successful missions to broker truce between Palestinian factions and Israel.

It is unclear whether Sulieman harbours any political ambitions. Some have suggested that the trusted confidante could pave the way for the younger Mubarak.

"Sulieman could come simply as a caretaker to ensure later on the succession of Gamal Mubarak," said Nafaa.