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CLIMATE CHANGE: Another Treaty Custom-Made for Washington?

Marcela Valente

BUENOS AIRES, Sep 8 2004 (IPS) - The 188 countries that are party to the Climate Change Convention will try to find a way, at their December meeting in Argentina, to get the world’s biggest generator of greenhouse gas emissions, the United States, to return to the debate on global warming.

That is what the executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Joke Waller-Hunter, told IPS on her visit to Buenos Aires this week, three months before the Dec. 6-17 tenth session of the Conference of the Parties to the convention (COP 10), to be held in the Argentine capital.

The main hope is that Russia will ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which sets targets for industrialised nations to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, that cause global warming.

The Protocol was adopted in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, but has not yet gone into effect because it has not been ratified by the biggest polluters.

Many countries have already accepted the targets set in Kyoto, but it would be “very positive” to achieve the missing ratifications needed for the treaty to go into effect, said Waller-Hunter.

The parties to the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto Protocol, which requires developed countries to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions to five percent below 1990 levels by 2008-2012, as an instrument to tackle the consequences of climate change.

The Protocol creates concrete mechanisms to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, which are released into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels, and other human, industrial and agricultural activities.

But the Protocol will not be binding until it is ratified by countries that account for at least 55 percent of global emissions. By late 2003, a total of 44.3 percent had been reached.

Ratification by the United States would bring the total to 80 percent, and by Russia to 61 percent.

The United States, which is responsible for nearly 25 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, withdrew from the Protocol in 2001. Since then, all eyes have turned to Russia.

But Moscow has repeatedly postponed its decision, which is now pending an analysis of the impact that meeting the Protocol’s quota targets would have on the growth of the national economy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that his country is “in the process” of ratifying the Protocol, Waller-Hunter pointed out. But she added that there are no indications of how long it will take Moscow to reach a decision.

She also noted that even if Russia ratifies the Protocol and it goes into effect, that will not put an end to the world’s climate change problems.

“For effective implementation of the Protocol, we need all of the parties to join the debate, including those that have not yet ratified the treaty, those which have stated that they will not do so, as well as those which suffer the worst effects of climate change – the developing countries,” said Waller-Hunter.

Moreover, she added, the initial targets set by Kyoto only involve industrialised nations, due to their historical responsibility for global pollution, but large developing nations like China or India will also have to assume similar commitments in the medium-term.

At the Buenos Aires meeting, the national delegates will analyse how to incorporate “all of the key sectors” into the debate on curbing global warming.

In December, Buenos Aires will draw between 2,000 and 5,000 representatives of governments, non-governmental organisations, business and the academic community, said Waller-Hunter.

The Argentine capital already hosted the COP in 1994. The proposal for the conference to be held once again in Buenos Aires came from Raúl Estrada Oyuela, director of environmental affairs in Argentina’s Foreign Ministry, and one of the main participants in the talks on global climate change since the early 1990s.

The official believes that while the chances of the Kyoto Protocol going into effect are being sorted out, countries should discuss measures to adapt to the climate change that is already occurring – especially developing nations, which are more vulnerable to the effects.

Estrada Oyuela has also proposed a discussion of how Washington can be drawn back into the debate.

The Argentine expert, who presided over the committee that designed the Kyoto Protocol at the mandate of the UNFCCC, said in Buenos Aires Tuesday that “I am not ashamed to say that this Protocol was custom-made for the United States, because it was the Washington delegate who suggested setting a cap on everyone’s emissions.”

That idea, which was accepted by other industrialised powers like the European Union, was later rejected by Washington itself, when President George W. Bush took office.

Estrada Oyuela believes it is necessary to create a new instrument that would include the United States, and he is not opposed to coming up with new mechanisms “tailor-made” for the biggest producer of greenhouse gas emissions.

“If the biggest source of emissions is not part of this, it will be very difficult to meet our targets. We have to find a way to bring the ram back into the sheepfold,” said the official, who added that there are already a few ideas to that end, which will be discussed at the December conference.