POLITICS-NEPAL: No Maoist Talks, So The Vote is On

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Suman Pradhan

KATHMANDU, Jan 14 2005 (IPS) - The ultimatum was given to Nepal’s Maoists rebels to talk, failing which elections will be held in the Himalayan kingdom. They missed the deadline and Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has now started consultations to announce fresh parliamentary polls.

On Nov. 25, the Deuba government told the rebels that it will go ahead with a long-delayed general election if they do not agree to resume peace talks by midnight on Thursday.

With no overtures made, even in the early hours of Friday, the prime minister, now, is beginning consultations with coalition partners to announce fresh polls by the end of April.

”He has begun consultations within the coalition. He will also consult the outside parties and security services before announcing elections,” said Deuba’s close aide Mrinendra Rijal. ”We have no choice but to go for polls since the Maoists have shown no inclination towards peace talks.”

The Maoists indeed have rejected all overtures towards peace in recent months, even going as far as accusing the Deuba coalition of lacking any power and authority. Prachanda, the Maoist chairman, recently said: ”We are not against peace talks, but we are not interested in talks with a government that lacks authority.”

Earlier in November, Maoist spokesman Krishna Bahadur Mahara said that the rebel group would be interested in talking directly to King Gyanendra or the Royal Nepalese Army ”since only they had real authority”. To drive the message home, the rebels have escalated their campaign of violence and disruption, even blockading Kathmandu for a week between late December and the New Year.

King Gyanendra dismissed parliament in 2002 amid deepening political turmoil and spiralling violence in Nepal where 42 percent of the 26 million population lives below the poverty line, according to the Asian Development Bank.

Since then, he has ruled through prime ministers named by him. There has been widespread pressure on the king at home and abroad to restore democracy.

Political in-fighting has also led to the break-up of the former ruling party, the Nepali Congress. Deuba now leads his own Nepali Congress (Democratic) and the mother party is in control of his nemesis, former prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala.

In the meantime, the palace too has become stronger at the expense of political parties

In nearly three years without a parliament, the Maoists have gained ground across Nepal as the democratic political process has only been confined to the capital Kathmandu and other urban centres due to security fears in the villages.

Human rights groups say it is almost impossible for political parties to operate in large parts of Nepal because of the Maoist violence. INSEC, the well-known rights group in Nepal, estimates that over 10,000 people have died since the Maoists began their armed struggle for a communist republic. The figures are expected to go higher as the Maoists prepare for the ninth anniversary of their uprising on Feb. 13.

Though the Nepali prime minister has the support of three other parties in the coalition – notably of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) or CPN (UML) and the rightist Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) – an opposition four-party alliance led by the Koirala Congress is still out on the streets, protesting at both the Deuba government and the king’s direct interference in national politics.

The opposition abhors new elections due to security fears and instead wants the dissolved parliament to be revived in order to explore new peace opportunities with the Maoists.

”The constitution has been derailed by the king’s action (in sacking an elected government in 2002 and ruling through hand-picked governments),” said Koirala.

”It can only be brought back on track with revival of the parliament.. Such a parliament will form an interim all-party government to hold talks with the Maoists. After that we can hold elections – after peace has been achieved,” he added.

The plan is sensible to many in Nepal who fear an escalation of Maoist violence if elections are held without peace in place. Indeed, the Maoists have already warned that any such elections ”will be bloody”.

But there are just as many who feel that once parliament is revived, the political parties will resort to power games which so destablised Nepal in the mid to late 1990s.

But even Deuba’s coalition ally, the CPN (UML), is facing pressure from its grassroots to forego new elections in favour of reviving the old parliament.

”There is tremendous pressure within the party to revive the old parliament. But the prime minister is not willing,” said CPN (UML) spokesman Pradip Nepal.

Deuba’s aides say he is wary of recommending the king to revive parliament since that would give the monarch an excuse to dismiss him again, as he did in October 2002. At that time the monarch sacked Deuba and his government on the grounds of being incompetent to lead the country by failing to hold elections.

”He doesn’t want to be sacked again. Once is enough,” said an aide on condition of anonymity. So it seems for the moment that any election, whether safe or unsafe, will be alright to save Deuba’s skin.

But the prime minister has a tough battle on his hands. Caught between conflicting pressures from the palace, which wants elections, and the opposition, which may boycott it, he has no easy way out.

The government however says elections are possible in phases.

Government spokesman Mohammad Mohsin this week told journalists that elections will be held in phases to provide adequate security. ”We cannot sit without a parliament for long time,” he said.

But would new elections solve Nepal’s current crisis?

”Without dealing with the issue of representation and inclusion, no elections are going to resolve the Maoist conflict. It will only lengthen it,” said a western development agency chief who declined to be named.