Europe, Headlines, Middle East & North Africa

POLITICS-EU: The Challenge for Turkey Has Just Begun

Stefania Bianchi

BRUSSELS, Oct 4 2005 (IPS) - European Union officials have cautiously welcomed the decision to open landmark entry talks with Turkey. But they say the road to accession will not be easy.

EU foreign ministers agreed a historic last-minute deal with Turkey late Monday after close to 30 hours of talks, which ended when Austria withdrew a demand that Turkey should be offered an option that falls short of full membership.

Turkey’s eventual accession must be ratified by all 25 EU member states, giving countries such as France an effective popular veto.

One of the biggest tests facing Turkey now will be to convince its European neighbours and their citizens that its membership of the EU club will benefit the bloc.

There is currently deep popular opposition within Austria and several other European countries. Critics cite Islam, Turkey’s size (pop. 70 million) and poverty (per capita gross national income of 7,400 dollars in terms of purchasing power parity compared to 28,700 dollars in Germany) as reasons to keep it at a distance.

Immigration from Turkey also remains a thorny issue in many EU states.

Recent polls show that a majority of French, German and Austrian voters oppose admitting Turkey, and that a majority of Danes would rather see the non-EU candidate Ukraine in the EU than an Islamic country.

Such criticism may block future negotiations because at least two of Turkey’s main opponents, France and Austria, have promised their voters referendums on Turkish accession.

The reaction of former French president Valery Giscard d’Estaing to Monday’s agreement does not bode well for French support.

“I learnt of the news with sadness and surprise,” he said in a statement. “The French people said four months ago, ‘we are against Turkey’s entry’, and here we are, four months later, and it’s happening.”

Such “sadness” was also evident in other European media Tuesday..

Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper said it would be a “fiasco” if Europe’s voters were to reject full membership after years of negotiations. “You have to wonder about the obstinacy and the creative poverty of those who regard Turkey’s full membership as the only path to happiness,” the paper said.

But many EU leaders tried to play down such challenges Tuesday, saying that the deal would benefit the EU and its citizens.

British foreign minister Jack Straw, who led what he called “a pretty gruelling 30 hours of negotiations”, called it a “truly historic day” for Europe. “We are all winners: Europe, the existing EU member states, Turkey and the international community,” he said shortly after the opening of the negotiations.

He said it would be a “long road ahead”, but added: “I have no doubt that if bringing Turkey in is the prize, it is worth fighting for.”

José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, the EU executive, urged Europeans to open their minds to the idea.

“Of course the road towards Turkey’s accession will be long and difficult. Accession, as for every country, is neither guaranteed nor automatic. Turkey must be treated in the same way as all other candidates. And it must strictly respect the requirements for democracy, human rights and rule of law if it is to join the club,” he said in a statement Tuesday.

“Europe must learn more about Turkey. And Turkey must win the hearts and minds of European citizens. They are the ones who at the end of the day will decide about Turkey’s membership,” he added..

Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the London-based Centre for European Reform, agrees that the responsibility of winning European hearts and minds lies with Turkey.

“It needs to reform its economy, stabilise democracy and respect human rights. If it just got on with it and shows that is capable of doing so, then Turkey would prove to the EU that it is ready to be a member of the EU club,” she told IPS.

Turkey applied in 1963 to become an EU member. But the EU has long said that starting membership negotiations does not guarantee that Turkey will actually join.

The talks are likely to last at least a decade. During this period Turkey will have to undertake a marathon effort to adapt its political, economic and social system to EU requirements, and implement 80,000 pages of EU law.

There is also an emergency brake mechanism to suspend negotiations in case of “a serious and persistent breach of the principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms.”

Some analysts remain optimistic in spite of such challenges.

“It is still not certain but I would rate the probability that Turkey eventually joins as higher than 50 per cent,” Daniel Gros, director of the Brussels-based think-tank, the Centre for European Political Studies told IPS.

“The referenda can be won if in 2015 Turkey can point to a decade of solid growth and a fully democratic society,” he added.

Barysch says public opinion will have changed by the time voting takes place.

“The main reason that people are fearful of Turkish accession at the moment is the economic malaise in some of the big eurozone countries with 10-15 percent unemployment,” she said.

Barysch hopes that in 10 to 15 years the EU will have addressed such issues, paving the way for Turkish accession.

“By then if we’ve addressed these problems, then it will be much easier for Turkey to join, and it will look a lot less scary,” she said. “If we haven’t, then we will have an EU that doesn’t grow, one that has 15 percent unemployment, social unrest and a decision-making process that doesn’t allow progress. If that is the case I don’t think Turkey will want to join anyway.”