POLITICS-TANZANIA: Tensions Ahead of Zanzibari Poll

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Fawzia Sheikh

DAR ES SALAAM, Oct 28 2005 (IPS) - “It’s more than politics – it’s chaos. Most of these international observers are really terrified by what is going to be the situation in Zanzibar,” says rights worker Deus Kabamba of the upcoming general election in Tanzania’s semi-independent archipelago.

His statement reflects fears that Sunday’s poll will be marred by a repeat of the violence that characterised the 2000 election in Zanzibar, won by the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM, the Revolutionary Party) – but contested by the opposition Civic United Front (CUF). CUF also alleged irregularities during the 1995 poll; as with the 2000 vote, observers refused to give the 1995 election a clean bill of health.

Dozens of people were killed during the 2000 poll, especially on the island of Pemba. The New York-based Human Rights Watch has also reported that Tanzanian security forces killed 35 people in early 2001 and injured more than 600 while suppressing opposition demonstrations against the outcome of the 2000 poll.

Rwekaza Mukandala, professor of political science and public administration at the University of Dar es Salaam, says these events prompted certain CUF supporters to flee the country (although they eventually returned home).

“For the first time in our history…Tanzanians went into exile to Kenya as political refugees,” he noted.

Violence has already marked the latest round of campaigning, with dozens of people wounded during incidents in which police used teargas to disperse stone-throwing mobs of CUF supporters, and also in battles between both parties involving machetes, clubs and iron bars.

The most controversial of these incidents occurred when police reportedly used live ammunition against CUF supporters who refused to obey an order barring an opposition campaign meeting in a CCM-dominated constituency. Authorities claimed that rubber bullets and teargas were used against the supporters.

International donors have cautioned that Tanzania may lose credibility if the upcoming poll is not free and fair, prompting government to issue a warning about external interference in the country’s political process.

Sunday’s voting was initially supposed to have taken place across the whole of Tanzania.

The death of Jumbe Rajab Jumbe, a vice presidential candidate for Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (the Democracy and Development Party), led to elections on the country’s mainland being postponed to Dec. 18. However, electoral officials in the Zanzibari archipelago decided to continue with polls for the islands’ president, parliament and local councils.

The archipelago endured a turbulent period in 1964 that resulted in the overthrow of its regime, and union with the country of Tanganyika that some still vehemently dispute.

Today’s enmity between CUF and the CCM can be linked to the historical opposition of certain Zanzibaris to the political merger, says Kabamba, programme officer at the Tanzania Gender Networking Programme: a non-governmental organisation (NGO) based in the capital – Dar es Salaam.

The parties are also divided over claims of a skewed voters’ roll, reportedly accusing each other of trying to alter it. In addition, opposition supporters complain of harassment by police and paramilitaries, pro-CCM bias in the government-controlled media, vote-buying and misuse of taxpayers’ money by the ruling party during election campaigns.

Other hot-button election issues concern poverty and unemployment, corruption and gender inequities.

But, despite claims of heavy-handedness on the part of government, the CCM and CUF appear to enjoy almost equal electoral support going into Sunday’s vote.

According to an opinion poll by Research and Education for Democracy in Tanzania (REDET), a project based at the Department of Political Science and Public Administration of the University of Dar es Salaam, the CCM presidential candidate Amani Karume will garner 45.8 percent of the vote. The CUF’s Seif Sharif Hamad is predicted to get 42 percent.

Four other candidates are also contesting the presidency, but are not considered to have a realistic chance at the polls.

REDET Chair Mukandala describes Sunday’s poll as “too close to call”, although the likely outcome of the national presidential election on Dec. 18 is more clear-cut. Jakaya Kikwete is predicted to win the poll with about 75 percent of the vote, to take over from outgoing head of state Benjamin Mkapa.

Voter participation in Zanzibar is expected to be a healthy 90 percent – in stark contrast to the apathetic 10 to 20 percent anticipated for the mainland.

While Karume is said to support a continuation of the status quo between Zanzibar and the mainland, Hamad reportedly favours increasing the archipelago’s autonomy – although not to the point of secession.

For its part, the Legal and Human Rights Centre, another NGO headquartered in the capital, predicts elections in Zanzibar will pass off peacefully. However, Harold Sungusia, the centre’s advocacy programme officer, does admit to concerns about the claim by some that their names are absent from the voters’ list, something that could prove inflammatory.