POLITICS-ZANZIBAR: Third Time Unlucky For the Opposition Party

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Fawzia Sheikh

ZANZIBAR, Nov 5 2005 (IPS) - Zanzibar’s ruling party won a third straight electoral victory in a fierce battle that has sparked mixed opinion about expected unrest among grassroots supporters and the challenges of governing amid such bitterness.

The Zanzibar Electoral Commission announced Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM’s) presidential candidate, Amani Karume, earned 53.2 percent of the vote while his Civic United Front (CUF) counterpart, Seif Sharif Hamad, won 46.1 percent.

Zanzibar, made up of two islands, has 50 constituencies. The opposition took all seats on Pemba, while CCM won all except one constituency on Unguja.

CUF, which a few days ago predicted victory, had promised wide-scale demonstrations if the government rigged the third election in 13 years since multi-party politics returned to Tanzania and its semi-autonomous territory of Zanzibar. The opposition now believes the government falsified this year’s results.

But some view these threats as lacking any might.

”They’ll make some few noises and talk and later on they will just shut up,” said a CCM party member about the Zanzibari opposition, which is made up of CUF and the Tanzanian Labour Party. ”This year there are even more soldiers than there were last time.”

Estimates are that the government had dispatched between 20,000 and 35,000 police and security forces to Zanzibar.

”They can demonstrate but they will meet people who are ready to disperse them,” said the member of the ruling party who prefers anonymity. Despite his political leanings, he questions the fairness of Oct. 30’s vote and fears he may be killed like other moderate reformists for criticising the government.

He anticipates no major confrontation between demonstrators and police because of scant cooperation between opposition groups in Zanzibar, and no prospects for outside assistance since the Indian Ocean islands lack borders with other African countries.

Others have a much different view of the immediate effect of Karume’s re-election.

”I expect violence in the short term, much worse than last time,” predicted Bubelwa Kaiza, executive director for Concern for Development Initiatives in Africa, based in the Tanzanian capital Dar es Salaam.

Allegations of fraud followed both the polls of 1995 and 2000 – claims confirmed by human rights groups. A bloody clash between demonstrators and authorities occurred three months after the 2000 election. Human Rights Watch, the New York-based watchdog, said Tanzanian security forces killed 35 people and injured more than 600 while stemming opposition riots.

Already, Oct. 30’s election has culminated in the shooting death of a teenage boy, more than 20 injuries, between 70 and 75 arrests and voting discrepancies mainly in the historical Stone Town, on the fringes of the capital Zanzibar Town. Police and military routinely have showered teargas, rubber bullets and water-cannon spray on CUF demonstrators.

”Those who were involved in the 2001 violence – they’ve grown stronger,” Kaiza said. ”They no longer fear the system. And they’re saying that: ‘We know the police have guns. But if one of us is killed by a police bullet, we shall be doing the same to the rest of the police’.”

Observers believe Karume’s triumph will cause no significant ripples throughout the international community.

Some donors, who finance about 40 percent of Tanzania’s budget, had warned the country would lose credibility if it did not hold free and fair elections. International and local observer groups, however, have reported the elections ran smoothly for the most part.

”When stability will be back, it will be business as usual,” said the unnamed CCM supporter. ”That’s what they care about.”

Moreover, international interest in Zanzibar sharpened when it was discovered a few years ago Pemba had oil reserves, making some countries more likely to look the other way on democracy issues, added Kaiza.

Civil societies fear the most serious long-term impact of CCM’s re-election will be political stagnation. ”Instead of moving forward with the big picture – education, health, sanitation – (the government) will be managing conflict, squabbling, politicking,” Kaiza said.

He said between 1995 and 2000 the opposition opted out of most political activities, including passing legislation that needs a majority vote in parliament. A period of cooperation, however, followed the elections of 2000 because opposition groups believed the next poll would be transparent and free of violence, he explained.

The fate of the beleaguered opposition is another issue. Kaiza said CUF will likely come up with a new battle strategy to regain lost credibility. At the heart will be a public relations scheme to mend an image propagated by government that opposition party members are weak, unorganised and impoverished.

CUF may also in the future show the public ”the black side of government,” he added.

Yet, some believe the fate of the CUF leader who has lost three times in the polls is more hopeless.

”I know that for certain now people are becoming critical about Seif Hamad,” said Chachage Seithy Chachage, a sociology professor at the University of Dar es Salaam. ”If there was some sympathy, it’s wearing a bit thin.”

Chachage said Hamad asked Zanzibaris to celebrate his victory before he won, and is now contesting the results instead of conceding defeat to Karume.

Hamad’s uncooperative behaviour – particularly if in the coming days it results in significant violence – may cost his party votes in the general elections scheduled for the mainland that were postponed to Dec. 14 following the death of a political candidate, Chachage added.

He explained the opposition’s threat to boycott the political process will only hurt the people who have chosen CUF to bring prosperity to Zanzibar, which suffers from poverty and unemployment created by the transition from socialism to capitalism.

Bleaker prospects await Hamad: ”I think this is the end of him. This is the end of his party,” Chachage said.

Karume, who refused to form a national unity government allowing both parties to share power, is not blame free in denying Zanzibar national healing, he argued.

Yet, CCM has what it wants – a guarantee of a prevailing reign over the territory.