BOLIVIA: Morales Has Pre-Poll Lead, But Outcome Still Unclear

By Franz Chávez Reprint | | Print |

Franz Chávez

LA PAZ, Dec 8 2005 (IPS) - With less than two weeks to go to Bolivia’s elections, the two presidential candidates leading the polls, Evo Morales and Jorge Quiroga, are frantically attempting to capture the 13 percent of voters who are still undecided.

The media war has been intense. In the latest episode, Morales’ Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) revealed that in a television ad produced by Quiroga’s right-wing Democratic and Social Power (PODEMOS), a supposed textile worker expressing his fear of losing his job if the leftist Morales is elected was really a man who worked in Quiroga’s country house.

Immediately after MAS exposed the bogus factory worker, a survey by the Ipsos-Captura polling firm commissioned by the Líder newspaper group showed Morales, the leader of Bolivia’s coca farmers, in first place, with 32.8 percent ratings, and former president Quiroga (2000-2001) in second place with 27.7 percent.

The next largest category of respondents was the undecideds, who accounted for 12.8 percent of those interviewed.

Far behind, with just 9.4 percent ratings, was centre-left candidate Samuel Doria, who was initially in second place after Quiroga. His National Unity party’s campaign is based on a call for unity between the divided impoverished western highlands and the much wealthier eastern provinces, where the country’s farmland and abundant gas reserves are located.

But political analyst María Teresa Zegada pointed out to IPS that poll results can shift quickly in the middle of an all-out media war between parties fighting it out to draw the support of the undecideds.

PODEMOS did not respond to IPS’ queries on the impact of the television ad exposed by MAS.

MAS, meanwhile, has maintained a discreet silence on the issue. But one of the party’s campaign spokespersons told IPS, on condition of anonymity, that the constant attacks on Morales have driven up support for him among voters moved by a sense of solidarity.

Another controversy was triggered last week when MAS Senator Román Loayza (the leader of Bolivia’s peasant union) threatened a coup d’etat if a possible electoral victory by Morales is not recognised. (In Bolivia, Congress chooses the president from among the front-runners if no candidate wins 50 percent of the ballots plus one vote).

The leftist lawmaker said that MAS had already “spoken with a few members of the military and police, and possibly without shedding blood, we would enter the (presidential) palace” if Morales wins the most votes and the legislature fails to award him the presidency.

Loayza’s remarks gave rise to a counter-attack by Quiroga’s party, which complained directly to caretaker President Eduardo Rodríguez.

The president ordered the public prosecutor’s office to investigate Morales, his vice presidential candidate Álvaro García Linera and Senator Loayza himself in order to determine whether there was actually a conspiracy for seizing power by means of violence.

In response, Morales said his party would cooperate fully to clarify the matter, emphasised his support for democracy, and discredited Loayza, an indigenous lawmaker known for his belligerent remarks.

PODEMOS spokesman Hernán Terrazas praised the government’s decision to take a hand in the matter and accused Morales of issuing a call for an armed uprising.

He also noted that Morales’ running-mate García Linera had warned that there were four factions within the party ready to generate chaos if the leftist party did not come out ahead in the elections.

“These are authoritarian and seditious threats. MAS’ democratic mask should come off,” said Terrazas, pouring more fuel on the fire.

The media also played a key role in the 2002 presidential election campaign, in which army Captain Manfred Reyes was the poll favourite until his image was weakened a few days before the elections as a result of a televised appearance that went badly for him.

After taking third place behind Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada and Morales in the presidential elections, Reyes complained of electoral fraud, although a few months later his right-wing party entered into an alliance with the winner, Sánchez de Lozada.

Former president Sánchez de Lozada fled the country in October 2003 after he was forced out of office by a month-long popular uprising known as the “gas war”. More than 60 demonstrators were killed in the crackdown on the protests.

He was replaced by vice president Carlos Mesa, who in turn was forced to step down last June by a new wave of social upheaval, combined with fierce political opposition.

Congress then appointed Supreme Court chief justice Rodríguez as interim president, with the understanding that he would call early elections this year.

On Dec. 18, four million of Bolivia’s roughly nine million people will be eligible to vote for a new president, vice president, and legislators in the two houses of Congress. They will also directly elect, for the first time, the governors of the nine departments (provinces) into which the country is divided.

If no presidential candidate takes at least 50 percent of the vote, the election will be decided in Congress, where lawmakers will have to forge alliances to choose the next president. Whoever achieves the backing of two-thirds of the legislators will take office in January.

Zegada said she does not believe that any candidate will garner 50 percent of the ballots, and she predicted a difficult scenario in Congress in terms of governance, because the winner will face the enormous challenge of cobbling together coalitions capable of governing.

She also predicted a conflict-ridden relationship between the future government and civil society divided by regional rivalries between the east and the west.