BURMA: Banking on China Against Sanctions

By Larry Jagan Reprint | | Print |

Larry Jagan

BANGKOK , Feb 22 2006 (IPS) - Burmese Prime Minister Gen. Soe Win has returned from Beijing claiming relations between the two countries have now entered a new era. But despite that upbeat assessment, Beijing remains concerned that its Asian ally is potentially unstable and could endanger regional security.

In a statement released to the press, soon after his arrival in Rangoon on Saturday, Soe Win said Beijing strongly supported Rangoon, and would oppose any attempts by the United States and Europe to have Burma placed on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) agenda.

Beijing rolled out the red carpet for the Burmese leader during his four-day visit when he met President Hu Jintao, Premier Wen Jiabao and foreign minister Li Zhaoxing. Several significant agreements were also signed, strengthening bilateral economic ties, transfer of technology and increased aviation links.

”This visit was crucial for Burma’s military leaders who are feeling increasingly isolated and under attack from the international community and growing pressure from its ASEAN neighbours,” according to the independent Burmese analyst, Win Min, based in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai.

The trip was originally planned for last year but postponed by China because of tensions between the two countries. At that time, Beijing was concerned about corruption involving Chinese projects, including the construction of a major container yard at Bhamo, a deep sea port at Kyakphu, and the highway connecting the port, according to Asian diplomats in Rangoon. Beijing was also frustrated by a perceived lack of Burmese cooperation in oil and gas exploration.

In the face of international sanctions against Burma, Rangoon has become increasingly dependent on its neighbours for trade and political support. ”We have good relations with all our neighbours and that is what is important, especially China, India and Thailand,” Burma’s foreign minister recently told IPS.

Over the past year, China has emerged as Rangoon’s most important ally, even though there were tensions. Recent important deals between Beijing and Rangoon for oil and gas extraction rights in western Burma seem to have helped mend some of the problems between the two countries. A gas pipeline is to be built from the Indian Ocean to China’s south-western Yunnan province.

Security matters, economic ties and political support were all high on Soe Win’s agenda while in China. ”Among the issues discussed during Soe Win’s visit to Beijing was non-traditional security concerns,” said a Chinese diplomat. ”Soe Win asked for help on how to manage NGOs (non-government organisations),” he said.

Burma’s military leaders have also been increasingly concerned about the role of international aid agencies and NGOs in Burma. They recently drew up a new set of guidelines for international organisations and formed a special ministerial committee headed by the minister for planning to oversee their implementation.

Many diplomats in Rangoon believe that one of Soe Win’s main concerns was to seek Chinese financial support to help the military regime overcome its mounting economic difficulties, intensified by the excessively expensive relocation of the country’s administrative and military centre from Rangoon to Pyinmana, some 40 km northwards.

”The junta is virtually bankrupt and needs Chinese financial support to help it overcome some of its immediate problems,” said a Rangoon-based Asian diplomat. They need more soft loans to help fund the infrastructural needs of the new capital, he added

Much of the telecommunications for the new centre, including the satellite and mobile phone infrastructure is already being provided by Beijing.

Soe Win appealed to his Chinese hosts to increase investment in Burma and proposed the establishment of two special economic zones, one in Rangoon and the other centred around the new administrative capital Pyinmana. The Burmese government has promised to provide insurance cover for Chinese businesses in Burma, according to a senior Chinese government official.

Burma’s premier urged China’s leaders and businessmen to increase their capital investment in Burma, start new projects to help build the country’s economic capacity, and to step up transfer of technology. Soe Win told his hosts that Rangoon was keen to have more Chinese technical experts.

Senior Chinese officials also discussed Burma’s political reform during the visit. “As a neighbouring country, China sincerely hopes that Myanmar (Burma) can continue to push forward with reconciliation at home and realise economic development and social progress,” the Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao reportedly told his Burmese counterpart.

China has been disturbed by the lack of progress on the junta’s seven-stage roadmap announced in August 2003, by the then prime minister Gen. Khin Nyunt. Beijing was also dismayed by the recent adjournment of the National Convention, which is drawing up a new constitution, until the end of this year.

While China believes political reform is an internal matter for the Burmese regime, they fear that excessive delays in the national reconciliation process are only likely to increase stability in Burma.

China’s leaders fear that social unrest in Burma would dramatically affect their southern provinces. More than 200,000 Chinese migrants have crossed into Burma in the past decade, according to senior Chinese officials. Some western analysts believe there could be as many as a million Chinese now resident in Burma.

Most of them are there unofficially. They are running small businesses throughout northern Burma, Mandalay and even Rangoon. Technical experts, workers and even farmers have migrated across the border in search of work. Many of the market sellers in the border region, especially in the border towns, like Mongla are also Chinese.

China’s main strategic concerns are to see Burma introduce political reform and boost economic development. “The last thing Beijing needs is thousands of Chinese migrants flooding back across the border, increasing the number of restless, unemployed Chinese peasants looking for work in the country’s main urban centres and adding to China’s growing social and rural unrest,” according to Win Min.

”China’s leaders understand that the Burmese military regime is illegitimate and lacks the support of the majority of the people,” a senior Chinese official told IPS.

But despite these reservations, Beijing has now decided that appearing to publicly support Rangoon is the most effective way to maintain its influence in Rangoon.

During his visit, Soe Win appealed to the Chinese leaders to help ensure Burma did not get put on the UNSC agenda in the near future. He even asked Beijing to intercede on Rangoon’s behalf and enlist Russia’s support on this issue as well.

China lost one of its main allies in Burma, when the former intelligence chief and prime minister Khin Nyunt and his supporters were arrested and purged at the end of 2004. Since his fall, China has tried unsuccessfully to find another ally within the regime.

”Their greatest fear now is that Burma’s second in command, Gen. Maung Aye, who is seen as pro-India, may gain in influence,” according to a senior Asian diplomat in Rangoon. ”Any suggestion that he may take over from the country’s main ruler General Than Shwe sends them into an apoplectic spin,” he said.

Rangoon, anxious to balance its dependence on its neighbours, is keen to maintain good ties with Delhi. The generals hope that the visit of Indian President Abdul Kalam to Burma, next month – though largely symbolic – will help do just that.