Thursday, August 13, 2026
Suvendrini Kakuchi
- East Asian regional politics, complex at the best of times, is turning even more tense say analysts, commenting on new movements on the North Korean abduction issue, the ongoing territorial dispute with South Korea and the China-United States summit that concluded on Apr. 20.
”The situation in East Asia is uneasy. Despite agreement, last Saturday, that Japan will give up its planned survey over the jointly claimed islands, I do not see Japan’s relations with South Korea getting better in the future,” observed Prof. Masao Okonogi, a respected Korea expert at Keio University.
Okonogi referred to remarks by South Korean President Roo Moo Hyun, reported Tuesday, who called Japan’s claim over a group of South Korean controlled islands “intolerable” and referred to the dispute as ”justifying its history of crimes committed during the war of aggression”.
South Korea claims the solitary island -named Dokdo- as its own. A joint declaration was signed in Seoul between Japan and South Korea last Saturday, after what has been described in the media as “stern” talks, with Tokyo agreeing to give up the survey.
In a compromise settlement, Seoul also promised to cancel plans to name topographical features on the seafloor at an international conference, bringing a sigh of relief among East Asia watchers who had watched the islets become a base for escalating national emotions in both countries.
But, hardly had the celebrations died down when friction flared up again over comments made afterwards in Tokyo implying that Japan had not ruled out a future survey, eliciting angry responses from Roo.
The two sides have decided to meet in May for further talks.
Territorial tension is not the only issue that threatens regional harmony in East Asia. The North Korean abduction issue has grown thornier with the revelation by the Japanese government that Megumi Yokota, who was kidnapped when she was 13 years old, had married a South Korean man who was also snatched away by agents sent by Pyongyang.
At least two dozen Japanese were abducted in the late 1970s and 1980s as part of bizarre plan to train them as spies for the ‘hermit kingdom’ and to serve as teachers of the Japanese language.
In 2002, Pyongyang officially admitted to the abductions and allowed a few of the abducted to return to Japan, but declared that the rest, including Yokota, were dead.
South Korea, which also has a list of abductees, pushes a conciliatory approach. But Tokyo sees the abductions as a serious violation of human rights, to be cited in order to press for change in North Korea. In this, it has the support of the U.S. and Western countries as well as the United Nations Human Rights Commission.
Hiroshi Kato, spokesperson for RENK (Life Funds for North Korean Refugees), explains that Tokyo’s move has galvanised the Japanese public to support the families of the abducted, creating a situation where the government cannot deal with North Korea without a breakthrough on the abduction issue.
”The situation shows that Japan is not working with South Korea or China, which conducts a similar soft approach towards North Korea. Japan is clearly on a collusion course and with emotions so high, there is no turning back when dealing with North Korea,” he points out.
Historical enmity, based on Japanese colonisation of China and the Korean peninsula in the mid-20th century, has dogged East Asian relations since the end of World War ll in 1945.
Sino-Japanese relations are now at an all-time low. No summits have been held between leaders of the two countries for the past four years-despite close economic ties.
Analysts say the recent visit by the Chinese premier to Washington -that resulted in no major bilateral breakthroughs – is seen in Tokyo as reinforcing the cool relations between the two countries and shoring the recently beefed up U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, that allows for more active participation of Japanese Self-defence Forces in the American military.
”The U.S. wants China to act as a responsible stakeholder. China must also realise that this argument is not only the view of the United States,” said a report in the Yomiuri newspaper on Apr. 22, referring to Tokyo’s China policy.
East Asia political expert at Takushoku University, Prof. Akira Kato views the latest bout of tension in the region as a sign of Japan’s growing confidence, as it faces up to China’s emerging influence in the region.
”The talks between Japan and South Korea can be taken as a step towards negotiation on each others terms which obviously will lead to only more tension. Still, that is a welcome sign because this is as it should be,” he said.
Prof. Fumiaki Yamada, at Osaka Keizai University, says the next few years will be fraught with bilateral clashes between Japan and South Korea and Japan and China, given the emerging territorial disputes.
”While there will be no major war as such, I can only see a light at the end of the tunnel through foreign non-partisan involvement, such as that of the United Nations, in this region,” says Yamada.
Yamada says that as suspicion continues to runs deeper in East Asia, an independent facilitator can be the only answer to solving or keeping at bay growing tensions in the region.