SRI LANKA: Nationalists&#39 Defeat Gives Geneva Talks a Chance

By Amantha Perera Reprint | | Print |

Amantha Perera

COLOMBO, Apr 2 2006 (IPS) - The humbling of President Mahinda Rajapakse&#39s nationalist allies, in last week&#39s local body elections, has vastly improved chances for the Norway-mediated peace talks in Geneva between the government and Tamil Tiger rebels.

The electoral verdict was overwhelmingly in favour of Rajapakse&#39s United People&#39s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), which claimed 225 of the 266 local councils. Against that the hawkish Janata Vimukthi Peramuna or People&#39s Liberation Front (PLF) claimed one council seat while the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), a party of fundamentalist, Sinhala Buddhist monks, drew a blank.

&#39&#39No doubt this augurs well for the future and the peace process,&#39&#39 the government-owned ‘Daily News&#39 said Saturday in an editorial that reflected the relief of the Rajapakse administration.

Since his narrow victory in the November presidential elections, Rajapakse has had more political trouble from his nationalist allies than from the main opposition party, the United National Party (UNP), which managed to win 32 of the councils.

Both the JVP and the JHU have been breathing down Rajapakse&#39s neck to make good an election promise to review a Norway-mediated truce which, since February 2002, has brought the longest lull in a bloody ethnic conflict that has raged on the island for a quarter century and claimed some 65,000 lives.

But, after assuming power, Rajapakse has seen it prudent to avoid a return to war with the formidable Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), which is firmly entrenched in north and east of the island where the ethnic Tamil minority is concentrated.

Rajapakse has also balked at the idea of dispensing with the Norwegians, a demand raised by his allies, and intensified after the first round of talks between government representatives and the LTTE in Geneva, last month.

A second round of talks, slated to take place in Geneva on Apr. 19-21, is expected to benefit from Rajapakse&#39s win. &#39&#39The victory is a big push for the peace efforts undertaken by the government,&#39&#39 said chief government negotiator at the Geneva peace talks and minister Nimal Siripala de Silva.

The leaders of the PLF, which supported Rajapakse in the presidential elections but broke ranks to contest the local body elections council, had lately taken to boasting that it was the real power behind the presidency -a claim that has now been effectively punctured.

Rajapakse, emboldened by the electoral reaffirmation of the popularity of his UPFA may now call fresh elections, which could give him a freer hand to negotiate and conclude a political settlement with the LTTE.

Soon after the conclusion of the first round of talks in Geneva, PLF leader Wimal Weeravansa said in parliament that the Norwegians should be immediately removed from its role as facilitator. His speech was followed by a protest by the National Bhikku Front (monk&#39s pressure group) in front of the Norwegian mission in Colombo.

Rajapakse favours a power-sharing solution to the ethnic problem while safeguarding Sri Lanka&#39s unitary nature. &#39&#39This (new results) will make them shut up and stop blackmailing the President. I always felt that, with just about five percent of the total votes they (PLF and JHU) jointly get, they make a big noise,&#39&#39 Muttukrishna Sarvananthan, a Colombo based economist and a political observer told IPS.

&#39&#39They (PLF) have again got the message they are just a fringe political party in Sri Lankan politics. Their extremist path both on the economy and peace has been soundly defeated. If they are clever they have to reform themselves and become pragmatic like other leftwing parties in the rest of the world in order to be acceptable to the people,&#39&#39 Sarvananthan said. &#39&#39The President now may be tempted to dissolve parliament and go for fresh elections in order to reduce the PLF&#39s 39 Parliamentary seats. They got such a large number of seats because of the alliance.&#39&#39

As things stand, without PLF support, Rajapakse loses a working majority. The hawkish PLF pulled out of the administration of Rajapakse&#39s predecessor Chandrika Kumaratunga in mid-2005, when she agreed to enter into a mechanism with the Tamil Tigers to share tsunami reconstruction aid.

PLF leaders have downplayed the drubbing. &#39&#39We faced a lot of problems; the PLF was seen as the common enemy by all others. The government unleashed state power during the campaign,&#39&#39 PLF general secretary Tilvin Silva claimed.

However, the PLF appeared to be sticking to its hard-line stance on negotiations even after the elections. &#39&#39Such a move (Rajapakse going ahead with his policies unilaterally) cannot be made. If that is done, that is a big mistake, and the people will take a decision on that,&#39&#39 Silva said.

Rajapakse faces an arduous road ahead with the negotiations. Tensions have been rising in the north and east due to fresh confrontations between the military and pro-Tiger civilians.

On March 25, a navy gunboat sank off the north-western waters when a trawler suspected of gunrunning for the Tigers exploded in close proximity. Seven sailors were killed as also six militants who were in the trawler.