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BURMA: Taking No Chances With Democracy After Nepal, Thailand

Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, May 10 2006 (IPS) - Incarcerated political leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) is facing dissolution, with Burma’s military rulers compelling mass resignations from the party by threatening to ban it as a ‘terrorist’ organisation.

”NLD members are resigning en masse because of coercion by local authorities, and it is not true – as the government says – that they are resigning of their own will,” party spokesman, Nyan Win has been quoted as saying. NLD leaders expect more resignations to follow in the coming weeks.

”The authorities are putting immense pressure on NLD members to resign,” according to a senior party member who asked to remain anonymous. “It is one of the key ways the SPDC (State Peace and Development Council) is trying to weaken our party.”

This strategy is part of the junta’s longer-term plans to crush all political opposition in the country before fresh elections are held under the new constitution, currently being drafted by the National Convention.

But the crackdown is believed to have been prompted by the recent, momentous political events in the neighbourhood, particularly in Thailand and Nepal.

“The amazing political volte-face by Nepal’s King Gyanendra in the face of massive demonstrations demanding a return to democracy in the capital Kathmandu and the street protests in Bangkok that forced Thailand’s prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra to step down as the country’s leader have rocked the old man, who now more than ever fears a repeat of the mass pro-democracy demonstrations of 1988, which forced Ne Win to stand down,” said a close confidante of Burma’s top general Than Shwe.

Taking lessons from Nepal and Thailand, Than Shwe appears keen to avoid heavy-handed methods which could only invite further international attention.

According to notes from a meeting between Burma’s police chief Maj. Gen. Khin Yi and his subordinates, made available to IPS, the police have been instructed to crush the NLD using stealth and intelligence and not brute force.

In the past, the police have been notorious for planting drugs, especially heroin, on young activists and students, arresting them and having them sentenced to several years’ imprisonment. These tactics are to be avoided and a more subtle strategy adopted with the aim of crippling the NLD.

Information Minister Brig. Gen. Kyaw Hsan recently warned the NLD that it could be outlawed at any moment. “The government has strong evidence that the NLD was involved with anti-government groups as well as terrorist organisations that would justify it being declared illegal,” he told a press conference near the border with Thailand, last month.

Ever since the NLD won a landslide election victory in 1990, it has been a thorn in the side of the army which denied the party assuming power and began systematic efforts to stifle democracy. The move to declare the NLD a terrorist organisation is the worst of these, so far.

NLD leaders are convinced that a final campaign to crush them is underway. Despite the apparent official change of tack by the police, harassment and intimidation, especially of young party members, has been stepped up in the last few months, according to senior party sources. Students and members of the NLD youth wing are being targeted, according to diplomatic sources in Rangoon. “This threat is intended to keep up the pressure on the NLD’s leaders,” said a western diplomat based in Rangoon. “It suits the SPDC to have the NLD registered, but impotent,” the diplomat added.

It has been clear for some time that the junta’s aim is to marginalise the charismatic Suu Kyi who is still under house arrest, and eliminate the pro-democracy parties as part of its planned national reconciliation process.

The National Convention is due to resume drawing up the principles of the new constitution in November. Burma’s foreign minister told his south-east Asian counterparts at the ASEAN foreign ministers retreat on the Indonesian resort of Bali in April that the new constitution would be completed by the end of next year.

“Than Shwe’s strategy is clear, before the constitution is drafted and put to a referendum, all the pro-democracy parties and ethnic groups – both those with ceasefires and those who haven’t – will be targeted and eliminated, or at the very least made impotent,” said the independent Burma analyst based in the Thailand, Win Min.

The renewed campaign to crush the NLD coincides with the Burmese regime’s fresh offensive against the ethnic rebel Karen along the border with Thailand.

The increased campaign of harassment and intimidation of NLD members seems to be the result of both internal and external factors. “Than Shwe has become increasingly concerned over the last months of the possibility of pro-democracy demonstrations erupting, especially in Rangoon,” said Win Min. “That’s one of the reasons for retreating to the new capital, Pyinmana,” he added.

From deep within his new bunker in Pyinmana, Than Shwe, has been carefully monitoring international events. He has ordered a crackdown on any signs of opposition within the country for fear of being forced to follow the example of some of his neighbours.

Late last year, the junta further isolated itself from the international community by moving its capital 400 km north into the country’s central hills.

Than Shwe has been disturbed and angered by the NLD’s recent initiatives and renewed assertiveness, especially as it coincided with the country’s prime minister Gen. Soe Win telling visiting Malaysian foreign minister Dato Syed Hamid Albar in March that Suu Kyi was now irrelevant to Burma’s political future.

Albar, an emissary of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) abruptly cut short his visit to Rangoon after he was denied access to Suu Kyi, now 60, ailing and kept under house arrest at her home in Rangoon.

In February, the NLD offered the government an olive branch in a press statement released to coincide with Union Day. In it the NLD leaders offered to recognise the military regime as the de facto government of Burma, on the condition that they allowed a peoples’ parliament to convene.

“The SPDC would be in charge of the transitional period until a government was formed by the parliament made up of the representatives elected in the national elections held on 27th May 1990,” the statement said.

The regime initially ignored the NLD’s offer, but officially rejected it last month when the information minister said the Burmese government would not hold any dialogue with the NLD outside the national convention, which the NLD has boycotted as undemocratic.

But the NLD’s attempt to reassert itself has particularly angered Burma’s top general who has now sanctioned an all out campaign to crush the NLD. “There is a definite trend here, when the NLD confronts the junta and reminds them that they are in effect the only legitimate government, the SPDC reaction is to pressure and further weaken the NLD,” said Win Min.

This also happened in 1998 after the NLD set up the Committee for Representing People’s Parliament (CRPP) and asked for the parliament to be convened for the first time. The SPDC cracked down on the NLD arresting parliamentarians and party members. Hundreds were forced to resign while others fearing for their lives fled the country.

In recent months, young activists and students have been detained and questioned; some have even been sentenced to several years’ imprisonment on trumped up charges. Key leaders of the student movement have also been attacked and one died from the injuries sustained during a brutal beating.

“We expect worse to follow as the military authorities go all out to eliminate us by the end of the year,” said a senior NLD official on condition of anonymity. He feared reprisals for talking to the foreign media.

Unfortunately, the NLD’s peace offer may have provoked an extremely aggressive response from the regime. “The SPDC cannot compromise with anyone, it’s not part of the military mindset,” analyst Win Min observed. Instead of dialogue, the NLD is facing one of its toughest trials yet since convincingly winning the 1990 elections.