THAILAND: Luck’s Out for Thaksin

By Marwaan Macan-Markar Reprint | | Print |

Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Jun 23 2006 (IPS) - Will Thailand’s caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra see his long run of luck continue? That question looms large after a ruling this week by the Election Commission against Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thai- TRT) party.

Thaksin’s capacity to survive crises that threatened to destroy his political career during the over five-year period he has been in office since January 2001 has been one among many remarkable features of his rule. But the flurry of legal cases the TRT are up against around the disputed – and then annulled – Apr. 2 parliamentary poll suggest that such a run of good fortune may be drying out.

The Election Commission’s ruling that the TRT had violated two of the country’s electoral laws, including alleged bribery, during the campaign leading up to the April poll is the latest threat to Thaksin’s and the TRT’s staying power. If found guilty in the courts, the TRT will have to be disbanded – as required by law – and Thaksin, as the party’s leader, could end up being barred from forming a new party for five years.

This latest twist in a continuing political saga of uncertainties comes after this South-east Asian country paused for nearly two weeks in June to celebrate the 60 reign of its revered monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej. During that period, Thais in the tens of thousands put differences aside to present a face of unity and sing the praises to a monarch that enjoys near divine status.

But by this week, the newspaper headlines were back with stark reminders that the country is in a political tailspin with no hint of an end in sight. ”It is a lot of fun to be in Thailand these days, because the country is going further and further into unchartered waters,” David Streckfuss, an American academic specialising in Thai political culture, told IPS. ”If the TRT is actually dissolved, who will take the role of caretaker government?”

There is no precedent to answer that question just as there is no precedent for the country’s premier judicial bodies to follow while examining the country’s major political party. ”Under the (current) 1997 constitution, this is the first time that a major political party is being taken to task by the court,” Thitinan Pongsudhirak, political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, said in an interview.

”Previously, members of major parties were taken to court for individual liability,” Sunai Phasuk, Thai researcher for global rights watchdog Human Rights Watch (HRW), told IPS. ”The misconduct of larger parties as political institutions were usually ignored, with no concern about the legal consequences of their actions.”

Analysts are in agreement that the pressure faced by the TRT and its leader stem from a level of judicial engagement in the country’s politics that is groundbreaking. ”The courts have become very political. They have been charged to find a political solution and they appear determined to do so,” says Thitinan. ”This is unprecedented.”

Streckfuss concurs. ”This is democracy in action not seen before. The courts are playing a role in house cleaning. This could be seen later as the most important period of the country’s growth as a democracy.”

On May 8, the constitutional court left its mark on the unfolding uncertainties by nullifying the disputed April poll, which the TRT won with a questionable mandate, following the decision by the main opposition parties to boycott the poll and an unprecedented number of protest votes.

This shift in the country’s judiciary – to move away from its reputation of avoiding political disputes to present a new face of seriousness – is attributed to a late April speech made by the king admonishing the courts to do their job to end the ”mess” the country was in.

The growing questions suggesting the end may be near for Thaksin, a billionaire telecom tycoon-turned-politician, and the TRT would have hardly been taken seriously a year ago, when as the 23rd prime minister has was enjoy parliamentary power not known since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932. His party had won 377 seats in the 500-member legislature at the February 2005 general elections. It followed the thumping victory the TRT secured at the 2001 polls, which brought it into power for the first time.

The political stability the country experienced during five-year that period stands in contrast to the volatile state of affairs that Thais were more accustomed to. Over the past 60 years, the country has been through 17 military coups, 15 constitutions and 21 prime ministers. Thaksin, in fact, was the first premier to complete a full four-year term and then be re-elected in back-to-back polls.

But revelations in the media and at public demonstrations about alleged corruption, nepotism and abuse of power by the government began to chip away at Thaksin’s legitimacy. Bangkok’s middle and upper-middle class voters, who took to the streets in their thousands in anti-Thaksin protests from February to April this year, served notice to the premier that he should go.

What has helped to keep Thaksin afloat – during his five years in office and now as caretaker prime minister – is the widespread support he enjoys in the country’s provinces, home to the rural poor who make up the majority of the voters. A string of pro-poor policies, including a debt moratorium scheme and cheap access to health services, has cemented this relationship.

”Thailand as a struggling democracy has yet to disentangle itself from this political mess of its own making,” argued ‘The Nation’ newspaper in an editorial on Friday. ”It will take a while to get out of this political quagmire.”