BURMA: Power Passes to Next Generation Generals

By Larry Jagan Reprint | | Print |

Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, Jul 3 2006 (IPS) - Burma’s military rulers have begun a massive shake-up with eight deputy ministers and a supreme court judge already relieved of their posts. This second revamp in the last few months is part of a major overhaul of the army and government, according to diplomatic sources in Rangoon.

Further cabinet changes are also believed to be in the pipeline and may include top military ruler Gen. Than Shwe standing down as the junta leader and passing power onto the next generation of generals.

It is the start of a fresh attempt to civilianise Burma’s military rule, ahead of the political change under a new constitution. To strengthen the regime’s ability to survive, Than Shwe is also planning significant policy changes, including a new programme of economic liberalisation and a strengthening of the country’s private sector.

These planned changes coincide with the regime’s new crackdown on corruption. Several top customs officials, including the department’s director general, have been detained and are expected to be charged with corruption in the near future.

The investigations are continuing and have been broadened to include several other economic ministries and even the Central Bank, according to diplomatic sources in Rangoon.

In the cabinet reshuffle announced in May, two deputy information ministers, Thein Sein and Brig. Gen. Aung Thein, lost their jobs. Deputy defence minister Maj. Gen. Khin Maung Win, deputy mines minister Myint Thein, deputy culture minister Brig. Gen. Soe Win Maung, deputy minister of border areas and national races and development affairs Brig. Gen. Than Tun, deputy minister of industry Thein Tun, and deputy transport minister Pe Thein were allowed to retire.

Replacements are yet to be announced but sources in Rangoon say they are likely to be drawn from among the new graduates of the National Defence College.

“Some of the new ministers are expected to be loyal to the second top general, Maung Aye,” an independent Burma analyst Win Min, based in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai, told IPS.

This may be the senior general’s way of keeping Maung Aye within the system, while reducing his influence, according to a senior Asian diplomat who knows the top generals well. Than Shwe’s planned reorganisation of the government is intended to help prepare for the next phase of the political transition, while further reducing the influence of his deputy Maung Aye.

Many of the regional military commanders were moved after the last quarterly meeting of the ruling body, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). The meeting was held in the new capital in Pyinmana. Now that the shifting of the war office and the government administration has been completed, the top general is turning his attention to the country’s political future.

The national reconciliation process, as the regime calls its plans for political reform, has been substantially delayed, partly because of the move to the new capital and as a result of the arrest of the former intelligence chief and prime minister Gen. Khin Nyunt more than eighteen months ago. Hundreds of his supporters were also purged and many sentenced to hundreds of years in jail. Since then the regime’s leader has been primarily concerned to consolidate his power within the army and the country’s administration.

Than Shwe now feels comfortable enough to proceed with his plans for Burma’s political future. The National Convention, which is drafting a new constitution, is scheduled to resume its deliberations later this year. Burmese foreign minister Nyan Win told his South-east Asian counterparts at their retreat in Bali in April that the constitution would take another two years to complete.

Drafting a new constitution is the first step in the government’s democracy roadmap. According to regime’s plans, this will then be put to a referendum and fresh elections held some time after that.

Now that Than Shwe wants to restart the national reconciliation process, the regime’s main concern is to prepare the ground for the next steps. This means immobilising or eliminating all potential opposition, including the pro-democracy parties and the ethnic rebel groups, most of whom have ceasefire pacts with Rangoon.

Than Shwe’s first task though, is to revamp the army command and shake-up the government. These changes are currently in the pipeline and are the most dramatic since the army seized power nearly eighteen years ago.

Burma’s top general is reportedly considering give up at least one of the three key posts he currently holds – chairman of the SPDC, supreme commander of the army and defence minister. “We expect Than Shwe to relinquish his position as defence minister as part of the forthcoming reshuffle,” said an Asian diplomat based in Rangoon.

Than Shwe is also expected to step down as the commander-in-chief of the army by the end of the year. The country’s third most powerful military leader, Gen. Thura Shwe Mann is expected to take over at the helm of Burma’s military machine.

“Gen. Maung Aye is likely to remain as the deputy chairman of the SPDC – a largely ceremonial post – but relinquish his position as deputy commander-in-chief of the military,” said a senior government source.

The SPDC itself is expected to be renamed the State Democracy and Development Council within the next few months, with both generals heading the new ruling council.

Since the army seized power, the military rulers have changed the junta’s formal name, then the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) to the SPDC in 1997. Nine years later it would not be a surprise if it changed the name again. Nine is regarded as an auspicious number in Burmese astrology.

The idea would be that the ruling council would remain the highest political authority overseeing a military council and a civilian cabinet. The military command would be replaced by a military council – led by Gen. Thura Swe Mann, but with Than Shwe on it. “The idea has probably been adopted from the Chinese, and Than Shwe plans to follow Deng Xiaoping’s example after he resigned his official government and party posts,” analyst Win Min said.

The cabinet is now being fully civilised – with ministers losing their military rank when they are appointed to their government posts. Prime Minister Soe Win has also had to relinquish his military post and stripes recently.

Beijing believes Than Shwe will stand down this year so that he can become the civilian president under the new constitution. “He wants to be president for life,” a senior military source close to him said.

Although the new generation of generals may take responsibility for the day-to-day running of the country and execute the seven-stage roadmap to democracy, Than Shwe will remain the power behind the throne. “He is replicating his usual approach of pitting potential junior rivals against each other to create a balance of power,” says Win Min.

“This is the new generation of military leaders who are being readied to take over power,” say senior Indian diplomats who deal with Burma. They warn that this group of generals lack the manners and sophistication of their superiors.

”These men are uncouth, uneducated and only know how to bark orders,” said an Indian diplomat who was based in Rangoon and knows the new generals well.