HUNGARY: Socialist Government Survives Political Turmoil

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Zoltán Dujisin

BUDAPEST, Oct 9 2006 (IPS) - The leaking of a tape with governmental admissions of deceit, three days of anti-government rioting, and a crushing defeat in last week’s municipal elections have not been enough to force Hungary’s Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány to resign.

Gyurcsány, both a socialist and a successful businessman, says he is committed to his drastic reform package, which has the backing of the European Union (EU) and foreign investors.

The municipal elections had been defined by the right-wing opposition as a “referendum” on the government, and Viktor Orbán’s conservative Fidesz party won in practically all counties and cities in the Oct.1 vote – with capital Budapest a prominent exception.

The 53 percent turnout was the highest registered in local elections.

Two weeks before the municipal vote a tape, containing a private speech made by Gyurcsány to his fellow socialist party members, was leaked to the press.

In it the Prime Minister admitted lying to the country with regard to the economic situation to obtain re-election, but also urged his party members to change the political culture of lies in Hungary.

The release of the tape sparked the worst violence witnessed in Hungary since the 1956 revolution against Soviet rule. Confrontations with the police in the streets of Budapest ended in hundreds of arrests.

The violence, mostly by right-wing extremists, initially favoured the socialists, who pointed to the opposition’s failure to dissociate themselves from the rioters. But the government’s tardiness in re-establishing order also damaged its image and made the socialists look weak in the public eye.

Fidesz claims the municipal election results show an unequivocal wish to change government. The opposition was hoping a socialist defeat in Budapest would confirm the entire nation is against the government. Yet it is precisely the left’s retention of the capital’s municipality that has saved the government from complete electoral collapse, analysts say.

The governing socialists argue the results instead reflect the unpopularity of the austerity measures. Hungary’s budget deficit, the largest in Europe, is expected to top 10 percent of the gross domestic product this year. The main areas to be reformed are health, education, pension and the administration.

What has lead to the present situation is that “all governments since 1990 tried to avoid serious reform to avoid political suicide,” sociologist Ferenc Hammer told IPS.

In the context of EU membership “all governments in the region have to go through with austerity packages,” but Hammer claims they have shown to be “very bad communicators.”

Hammer argues that governments could avoid troubles as “people have more willingness to accept burdens if they get these packages frankly.”

On the day of the municipal elections Hungarian President Lászlo Solyom increased the pressure on the government by indirectly calling for Gyurcsány’s resignation and by demanding a confidence vote in parliament.

The vote was won by the liberal-socialist coalition, and the Prime Minister’s position has been slightly reinforced. Gyurcsány took the opportunity to apologise to the public, but Hungarians are still sharply divided, overwhelmingly along party lines, over his continuity.

The opposition, noting the vote was not secret, calls it a “dirty trick”, and insists on Gyurcsány’s resignation. Tens of thousands anti-government demonstrators from all over the country gathered in front of the parliament following the confidence vote.

Fidesz promises to keep its people on the streets every night up until Oct. 23, when official celebrations of the 50th anniversary of Hungary’s uprising against occupation by Soviet troops will take place.

Many fear the holiday will be politicised, leading to another escalation of violence. President Solyom has warned the public that “mass demonstrations cannot be, in any way, an alternative to parliamentary politics.”

But Orbán claims the governing party has lost the necessary popular confidence to implement reforms, and calls Gyurcsány a “prime minister only on paper.”

Spending the last five years in opposition, the former prime minister has consistently privileged the tactic of casting doubts over the government’s legitimacy and of creating suspicion over its supposed links to the former communist regime.

Several analysts see the latest events as Orbán’s last chance to seize power gain, but they warn that failure from the right to achieve its objectives and keep up with its supporters’ expectations could mean Orbán’s political death and a reform in Hungary’s conservative political culture.

The former prime minister denies accusations of power hunger and has instead called for the formation of a “government of technocrats” not affiliated to any party, which would lead the country to early elections.

As a second alternative, he has pleaded the governing parties to elect a new prime minister, but both liberals and socialists have rejected the proposals and stand fully behind a perseverant Gyurcsány.