SERBIA: Nationalists Lead, But Reformists May Govern

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Jan 22 2007 (IPS) - The Sunday elections in Serbia put the ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS) in the lead with more than 28 percent of the vote. But some analysts say nationalism has not necessarily prevailed, because the remaining voters cast their ballots in favour of pro-democracy and reform-oriented parties.

The first official results of voting by 60.1 percent of the 6.6 million electorate made the SRS the single biggest party with 28.7 percent of the vote, followed by the reform-oriented Democratic Party (DS) with 23 percent and the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) of Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica with 16.7 percent.

“No single party is able to form a government, and a coalition will be necessary,” analyst Vladimir Goati told IPS. “The negotiations will be long and complicated, but the pro-democracy parties have enough time at their disposal to think everything over.”

Under the constitution, there is a 90-day deadline to form a government. Goati, like many other analysts, predicts that the DS and DSS will be the skeleton of a new one.

“They will need other, smaller parties to have a stable government and they have at least one at their disposal,” analyst Slavisa Orlovic told IPS.

The two smaller parties at the disposal of DS and DSS will be the reform-oriented G 17 Plus led by Mladjan Dinkic, until recently the finance minister. Another is the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) formed only months ago by Cedomir Jovanovic, formerly in the top ranks of the DS. The two have seven and 5.5 percent of the vote respectively.

“One should not forget the fact that, after all, 52 percent of votes went to the pro-democracy parties,” Orlovic said.

The remaining votes went to the Socialists of former leader Slobodan Milosevic and to the minority parties of ethnic Hungarians, ethnic Albanians from the southern Serbian region bordering Kosovo, Bosniaks in Sanjak region and to Roma parties.

Serbian President Boris Tadic, from the DS, told reporters that “the majority of votes did go to pro-European parties.” He said “Serbia should get a stable, majority government as soon as possible, because life cannot wait any longer.”

Under the constitution, the President should give the largest party, this time the SRS, the first chance to form government. But no political party is willing to enter into a coalition with it, and it cannot form a government on its own with 81 MPs in the 250-seat parliament.

“That is why the mandate will be proposed to a party that can offer a stable government,” Tadic said. “It’s our aim to provide better life for people in Serbia, and a European Serbia.”

The SRS opposes cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) or handing over remaining indictees such as Bosnian Serb war time commander Ratko Mladic. It also opposes any form of sovereignty for the United Nations administered province of Kosovo, which is about to get at least limited independence this year.

The two issues are the most important any future government in Serbia will face. Handing over of Mladic means that the Stabilisation and Association Agreement talks with the European Union (EU) will be unblocked. That agreement can lead to eventual EU membership.

The talks were suspended last May because Serbia did not meet the deadline for Mladic’s arrest and extradition. Talks on the status of Kosovo have been going on for almost a year now, with UN mediation. The outlines for a solution will be presented by UN negotiator Martti Ahtisaari by the end of the month.

“Now is the time for Serbian parties, who have to form a coalition government, to find a statesman’s answer to those issues and lead the nation out of crisis,” leading commentator Ljubomir Zarkovic told popular B92 TV station. “The stability of the region depends on that, as the remaining problems have to be finally solved after so many years.”

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said in a statement that “I hope very much that there could be the formation of a government with pro-European and democratic forces.” (END/IPS/EU/IP/VZ/SS/07)