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POLITICS: Iran Poses Multiple Problems for Arab Nations

Analysis by Meena Janardhan

DUBAI, Feb 3 2007 (IPS) - As Iran vies with the United States for dominance in the Middle East, the smaller Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are left with several anxieties – the consequences of a U.S./Israeli military attack on Iran; the rising stock of a Shiite country that has long posed a religio-ideological threat; and sectarian strife in Sunni-ruled countries with significant Shiite communities.

Delivering a policy statement in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – which has a running feud with Iran over the occupation of the Abu Mussa and Greater and Lesser Tunbs islands – U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs Nicholas Burns said his country has always had the stability of the ‘‘strategic&#39&#39 region in mind, but Iran has been trying to ‘‘alter&#39&#39 it by attempting to dominate.

‘‘The U.S. will not let this happen. We don&#39t want Iran to dominate the region. The Gulf isn&#39t a body of water to be controlled by Iran. When challenged, the United States will do everything to defend its interests. We will respond – economically, financially, politically, and not necessarily just through military means," Burns said on Jan. 23.

Burns&#39s visit came amid a flurry of diplomatic activity that also included U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates&#39s tour of the region and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice&#39s efforts to mobilise the six-member GCC bloc – comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – as well as Egypt and Jordan to join Washington in confronting Iran.

The Sunni-ruled countries find themselves in a fix with regard to developments in Iran. Looking the other way while Iran develops its nuclear programme would inevitably bolster the Islamic Republic&#39s military prowess and pose a security threat.

On the other hand, demanding an end to nuclear enrichment places them alongside the U.S. and Israel. With Tehran repeatedly suggesting that it would retaliate by targeting American bases in the Gulf, the GCC countries fear the possibility of a destructive war that could bring to the fore sectarian divisions that have lain dormant.

Bahrain has a majority Shiite population, one-third of Kuwaitis are Shiites, and Saudi Arabia&#39s oil-rich Eastern Province has a significant percentage of Shiites, who have often complained of discrimination.

Apart from allegations that its role in Iraq, which now has a Shiite-dominated government, is to maintain instability and keep the U.S. on the defensive, Iran has also been accused of aiding Shiite Hezbollah to overthrow the pro-Western Fouad Siniora government in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories, thereby extending Tehran&#39s influence into the heart of Arab crises.

All these developments are compelling the GCC Sunni governments to find ways to counter Tehran&#39s ascendancy.

At a summit in Riyadh in December, the GCC outlined plans for a joint nuclear programme for peaceful purposes. Given the wealth of oil in the region, it is hard to miss that the announcement has political overtones. Further, it raises the possibility of a dangerous proliferation of nuclear technology, even weapons, in the volatile region.

The GCC countries also discouraged the Baker-Hamilton-led Iraq Study Group&#39s call for the US to dialogue with Iran. The concern was that such a move may result in recognising Iran as a key player in Iraq, and forcing a compromise on Iran&#39s nuclear ambitions – both ominous to the GCC countries.

After two U.S. aircraft carriers – Eisenhower and Stennis – were moved into the Gulf region in recent weeks and Patriot anti-missile batteries deployed, Iran has responded with war games. Further, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad&#39s rhetoric has matched that of U.S. President George W. Bush.

‘‘They say war is coming. What war? It is all propagandaàEven if they adopt 10 other resolutions it will not have any effect,&#39&#39 Ahmadinejad said on Jan. 21, referring to the Dec.23 United Nations Security Council Resolution 1737 imposing sanctions on Iran for refusing to suspend uranium enrichment.

In a circulated note, Prof. Gary Sick, Middle East expert at the Columbia University, writes that ‘&#39‘the organising principle of the (U.S.&#39s) new strategy is confrontation with and containment of Shiite influence – and specifically Iranian influence – wherever it appears in the region.&#39&#39 He points to the possibility that ‘&#39the Arab states may subordinate their hostility to Israel, at least temporarily, out of their even greater fear of Iranian/Shiite dominance of the region."

Lending weight to this assessment, there have been several reports of meetings between Arab and Israeli leaders recently. Further, Israel&#39s annual meeting of national security strategists on Jan. 25 urged a coalition with moderate Arab countries to deter Iran.

The prevailing tension has triggered a war of words among the region&#39s Sunni and Shiite citizens.

Accusing Iran of interfering in Iraq&#39s internal affairs, a prominent Sunni cleric based in Qatar has urged Iran to help stop the sectarian strife. He called on Shiite leaders worldwide to condemn the killings of Sunnis in Iraq, before sectarian clashes spill over.

‘‘Thousands have been killed in Iraq since the Americans entered the country and Sunnis are the ones suffering most in Iraq. There is an ethnic cleansing going on,&#39&#39 Yousuf Al-Qaradawi said at an Islamic conference in Doha on Jan. 20.

In response, Kuwait&#39s Shiite cleric Sayed Mohammad Baqer Al-Mahri said: ‘‘We affirm that the interest of Islam, bridging the gap between its sects and serving Islamic unity, require dismissing this man (Qaradawi) who is always spreading sectarian rift.&#39&#39

While the U.S. claims that its Iran-Iraq policies are a reflection of the region&#39s Sunni governments, many in the region believe that Washington is using the division to its advantage.

‘‘What we are not interested in is another war in the region,&#39&#39 said Mohammed Al-Naqbi of Gulf Negotiations Center in the UAE. ‘‘Iraq is the U.S.&#39s problem, not the problem of the Arabs. The U.S. destroyed a country that had institutions. It handed that country to Iran. Now it is crying to Europe and the Arabs to help them out of the mess.&#39&#39

Munir Diar, a Yemeni analyst, recommends a regional plan. ‘‘Arabs in this region and Iran must negotiate regional security arrangements far from any American influence or dictates. Iran is a de facto regional power, its role a fait-accompliàthe Sunni-Shiite split must be done away (with),&#39&#39 he wrote in the UAE&#39s ‘Gulf News&#39 on Jan.18.