UKRAINE: Elections Ahead, Again

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Zoltán Dujisin

BUDAPEST, May 11 2007 (IPS) - Ukraine’s latest power clash is heading towards a political, rather than legal solution. President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich have agreed on early elections, but disagree over the details.

Party of the Regions leader Yanukovich wants election to be held in autumn, but the opposition says the vote should be held by mid-July at the latest. Both sides also need to agree on passing and amending a set of laws to make room for the early vote.

On Apr. 2 President Yushchenko issued a decree dissolving parliament and calling for fresh parliamentary elections, which was disobeyed by the pro-governmental majority. The President claimed the government was usurping power after some opposition parliamentarians moved to the ruling coalition.

Since then an uncompromising struggle for power has been taking place between the President and the Prime Minister, who contested the constitutionality of Yushchenko’s decree.

Last week’s agreement between the country’s most powerful men surprised many who, just as governments in the West, expected the standoff to be solved by the country’s Constitutional Court, which was looking into the constitutionality of the Presidential decree.

The Court had been under enormous pressure over the last weeks. The Party of the Regions expected a favourable resolution whereas opposition leader Yuliya Timoshenko was denying its legitimacy.

The pro-presidential party Our Ukraine, the third largest force in parliament, had declared it would observe the court’s deliberation, but Yushchenko used several legal manoeuvres – including the sacking of several judges and the issuing of a new decree – to ensure the court would not deliver its ruling any time soon.

An Apr. 26 presidential decree moved the date of the election and annulled the previous decree. Through this move Yushchenko attempted to amend some of the constitutional flaws in the previous decree while making the Constitutional Court hearings on his first decree futile.

While the Court has announced it would continue considering the first decree, officials from the governing coalition are angered by each step taken by Yushchenko who, in their view, is continuously breaching agreements reached with the coalition.

Yushchenko’s tough stance towards the prime minister surprised many who had previously described him as a weak politician. His bold steps have also resulted in increased popularity, though only among those in the right-wing political spectre.

“He has improved his image as a politician who can take strong decisions, he has even become more popular than Timoshenko,” Ivan Presniakov, political analyst at the Kiev- based International Centre for Policy Studies told IPS.

“However this does not mean that the popularity of his political party is also increasing, Our Ukraine is still loosing popularity compared to the bloc of Yuliya Timoshenko.”

While uncertainty remains on how the right-wing votes will be distributed, none of this seems to affect the comfortable and growing lead enjoyed by the Party of the Regions.

The current left-wing governing coalition, comprised of Yanukovich’s Party of the Regions, the Communists and the Socialists, could remain in place following fresh elections.

Yanukovich is favoured by economic figures above those seen under opposition governance in 2004-2006. An 8 percent growth in the country’s gross domestic product coupled by low inflation is allowing him to raise pensions and salaries.

But the Socialists, who have lost much of their support base, are unhappy about the prospect of a new vote, which they call a “betrayal of the constitution.” The Communists, on the other hand, will most likely reap benefits from an early vote.

In a recent admission, Yushchenko himself recognised that the balance of forces in parliament would not be seriously affected by a new vote, and pointed to a different goal.

“I am convinced that an early election will lead us to two conclusions. The first one is that the political map will not change very much. The second and fundamental one is that forces that enter the next parliament will be guided primarily by goodwill and the negotiation process,” the President said.

For Presniakov, “even if elections do not bring changes, Yushchenko at least scared the government with the possibility of calling a new election, and they will become more respectful towards him.”

The analyst also thinks the President “may find himself in a good bargaining position after the vote” and could influence the choice of prime minister or ensure the communists are kept out of the cabinet.

Some observers have gone as far as speculating that Yushchenko and Yanukovich could be bracing themselves for the prospect of a grand coalition, which would facilitate Constitutional reform.

All political sides agree that the constitution, which was recently changed to give more powers to parliament at the President’s expense, needs improvement, but left and right disagree on priorities.

Presniakov feels political reform is imperative as “there is a chance for renewed crisis if nothing changes institutionally.”

A grand coalition could be made difficult not only by the staunch opposition between Our Ukraine and Party of the Regions supporters, but also by the diverging interests of business circles behind them.

So far the press service of Our Ukraine has said it will only form a coalition with “democratic forces”, an expression often used by the right to exclude Yanukovich’s Party of the Regions.