PAKISTAN: Join the Army, Stage a Coup, Retire as President

By Sanjay Suri Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Sanjay Suri

LONDON, Nov 12 2007 (IPS) - Commonwealth ministers warned Pakistani dictator General Pervez Musharraf Monday that Pakistan would face part suspension from the Commonwealth if he did not lift emergency, and all that went with it.

But it was a half-threat. The nine-member Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) issued a warning that Pakistan faces suspension "from the councils of the Commonwealth", and not full suspension.

The difference between the two is significant. During its suspension from the councils of the Commonwealth 1999-2004 Pakistan participated, for instance, in the Commonwealth Games held in Manchester in 2002. It remained a Commonwealth member for other purposes as well. It was suspended only from participation in some decision-making bodies of the Commonwealth such as CMAG itself.

The failure of CMAG Monday to deliver even a full-throated threat arose from deep divisions among the ministers. The nine countries on CMAG are Malta, who chairs the group, Malaysia, Lesotho, Sri Lanka, Britain, Papua New Guinea, Canada, Tanzania and St. Lucia. The Commonwealth is a group of 53 nations almost all of which were once a part of the British empire. The exceptions are Britain itself, and Mozambique.

At the Monday meeting Britain is reported to have argued forcefully against suspension of Pakistan. Ministers of some of the smaller nations argued for full suspension, primarily on the grounds that the Commonwealth had shown itself to act firmly against Zimbabwe dictator Robert Mugabe, but had taken a far softer stand on Musharraf. Mugabe led Zimbabwe out of the Commonwealth in 2003.

Following a meeting that officials conceded had verged on the stormy at moments, Maltese foreign minister Michael Frendo conceded that "I have chaired easier meetings." Commonwealth Secretary-General Don McKinnon acknowledged that some of the ministers had to be "cajoled" towards the consensus that emerged.

That consensus requires Musharraf to take five steps by Nov. 22, when CMAG will meet again in Kampala on the eve of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) Nov. 23-25.

These steps are:

– Repeal of emergency provisions and full restoration of the Constitution, and the independence of the judiciary

– Musharraf steps down as army chief

– Release of party leaders, activists, lawyers and journalists under detention.

– Removal of curbs on the media

– Move to free and fair elections under the Constitution

A significant omission stands out from this list of demands – nothing here stops Musharraf from being acceptable to the Commonwealth as President if he steps aside as military chief. And it leaves room for an arrangement being negotiated for some time in which Pakistan People&#39s Party (PPP) leader Benazir Bhutto can move towards prime minister position with Musharraf as president.

To that extent, the British demand within CMAG was in line with the arrangement that Washington has been pushing for in Pakistan. Both Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto are seen as natural allies of Washington in its &#39war on terror&#39, and the Commonwealth has said or done little so far to come in the way of a Washington-born arrangement.

Several apparent moves have been made against Benazir Bhutto, and there have been critical statements against one another, but many within Pakistan believes that these are pseudo-differences being aired publicly to gain credibility while cloaking subterranean agreements.

But given the Commonwealth tradition of taking a stand based on consensus rather than putting it to vote, some of the smaller countries gained some ground in forcing at least a deadline – and at least towards some half- measure. These countries managed to resist a British demand that Musharraf be given time until January before the Commonwealth takes any further steps.

Following the CHOGM in Malta in 2005, the Commonwealth gave Musharraf, rather generously, until Nov. 15 of this year to choose between the positions of military chief and president. The Commonwealth has been consistent in never denying Musharraf the option of presidency – even though his route to that post would be a military coup.

On Monday CMAG added a week to that deadline. Few expect that Musharraf will give up his military role within ten days only because the Commonwealth wants him to. McKinnon visited Islamabad as recently as Sep. 19-21 to urge Musharraf towards democracy in line with the Commonwealth wishes, and the Harare principles agreed at the CHOGM in Harare, Zimbabwe, in 1991. Clearly, that did not stop Musharraf imposing martial law in the name of emergency.

Nor did it inspire much fear of suspension, or part suspension, from the Commonwealth. It is not clear to anyone what exactly Pakistan lost through its period of suspension from the Commonwealth 1999-2004. Nor is it clear what the Commonwealth gained by it. Whatever the stated positions of the Commonwealth, in Harare or later, its stand on Pakistan now allows for the following: Join the Army, Stage a Coup, Retire as President.