CHINA: Hong Kong-Shenzhen Megalopolis Unstoppable

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Antoaneta Bezlova

HONG KONG, Dec 5 2007 (IPS) - China’s hopes that its booming southern hubs of Shenzhen and Hong Kong can merge to form a new megalopolis are facing fresh challenges after the victory of the pro-democracy camp in the Dec. 2 by-elections in the former British colony.

After one of the most hotly contested campaigns since Hong Kong returned to Chinese rule ten years ago, Anson Chan, a passionate advocate for democracy, won a seat in the city’s Legislative Council.

Her allies had promoted the by-election as a vote on the pace of democratic reform in Hong Kong, calling for universal suffrage rights to be granted to voters within five years.

Under the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, China is obliged to introduce democracy, but the time frame and the way forward are yet to be decided. Democrats and pro-Beijing conservatives are divided over how soon direct elections should take place with conservatives advocating a slow and steady progress forward.

After her sweeping victory Sunday, Chan said she hoped the governments in Hong Kong and Beijing "would listen to the genuine voice of Hong Kong people". Many in her camp had described the vote as a vote on Hong Kong’s future.

But the future of Hong Kong as an international metropolis now hinges on a proposal pushed forward that Hong Kong and Shenzhen – its mainland neighbour in the Pearl River Delta – should become one city. Advocated by Shenzhen leaders and said to be endorsed by Beijing too, the plan presents the former British colony with a tantalising array of opportunities and risks.

The scheme offers Hong Kong new potential for growth by providing more access to southern China and freer flow of resources and talent across the border. It touts the attraction of unified management of transportation and shipping while promising integrated solutions to cross-border problems like pollution.

But detractors worry that forming economic unity with a mainland city could dilute the political autonomy of Hong Kong, enjoyed by the city under the "one country, two systems" policy. When Britain handed the territory back to China in 1997, Beijing promised to preserve the territory’s separate legal and political system unchanged for 50 years.

The idea of an economic merger was first raised a couple of years before the 1997 handover. Anson Chan, who then held the city’s second-highest post, and other senior officials trained by the British administration, were opposed to closer economic ties with the mainland.

However the picture has changed with Donald Tsang&#39s ascendancy as Hong Kong’s Chief Executive, says veteran China watcher Willy Lam. Although as a former British civil servant he initially shared Anson’s views, Tsang has lately emerged as a backer of the proposal.

"Hong Kong now is totally dependent on the mainland and therefore closer integration with the southern province of Guangdong in general and Shenzhen in particular is seen as the future,’’ Lam told IPS.

Delivering his policy address in October, the Chief Executive said the territory would go all out to promote the development of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong International Metropolis. Tsang is reported to have discussed the proposal with China’s top leaders during his visit to Beijing last month.

Meanwhile, China’s state media has begun trumpeting Shenzhen as a "worthy" partner for "powerhouse neighbour Hong Kong".

"It is a win-win situation," Zhang Yuge, a senior researcher with the China Development Institute, a think-tank based in Shenzhen, was quoted as saying by the China Daily. "The combined city will have more impact on the mainland’s economy while playing a more significant role in the global markets."

The Shenzhen government has prepared a development blueprint stretching up to 2020, which outlines several steps in building an integrated financial, trade and navigation centre. The draft, which seeks to "join hands with Hong Kong to develop an international metropolis", is to be submitted shortly to the State Council (cabinet) for final approval.

In anticipation of the nod from the state council, Shenzhen mayor Xu Zongheng is to visit Hong Kong before the end of the year to flesh out the proposed merger.

But despite Donald Tsang’s enthusiastic response to the plan, Hong Kong observers say the scheme would require a meticulous scrutiny in order to winpublic backing.

"Economic integration is certainly most welcome but Hong Kong people don’t want to see any political synergies," says Joseph Cheng, professor of political science at the City University of Hong Kong. "Political integration could endanger Hong Kong’s rule of law and could flatten our lifestyles".

In this light, the message from Sunday’s elections is clear, according to Cheng. "Hong Kong people want to reject the image of themselves as economic animals that don’t care about democracy once the economy is doing well."

Some Hong Kong circles are pushing the merger as a way of boosting the territory’s competitiveness in the face of mainland China’s robust growth.

A study by the Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre, associated to the Tsang administration, predicts the combined city could outperform London and Paris in terms of GDP to become the world’s third largest city, after New York and Tokyo by 2020.

But other researchers say Hong Kong and Shenzhen had moved towards a unified management in areas like shipping, for example, even before a formal proposal has been approved.

"We already have a merger in a sense," says Michael DeGolyer of the Hong Kong Baptist University who works on the Hong Kong Transition Project examining the changes since the handover. "Hong Kong and Shenzhen ports are in fact merged because they are owned by the same company".

While he believes Hong Kong people tend to see the proposed integration in a constructive way – as a unified solution to common problems like pollution – he is emphatic they would not tolerate any imposed changes to the existing political system.

"There would be an extremely strong reaction to a potential change of the Basic Law,’’ DeGolyer reckons.

While Anson Chan won against her pro-Beijing political rival Regina Ip inthe by-elections, the city’s pro-democratic forces are still facing an uphill battle to win an early launch of promised universal suffrage.

"The pro-Beijing forces, including the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, are gaining ground," says Willy Lam. "For the time being, and even after next year’s elections to the full Legislative Council, democrats won&#39t be in a position to influence major Hong Kong policies, including the proposed merger with Shenzhen".