POLITICS-CHINA: Taiwan Closer to Reunification

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Antoaneta Bezlova

BEIJING, Jan 14 2008 (IPS) - Despite Taiwan’s pro-China opposition landslide win in the weekend legislative elections, Beijing remains anxious about the outcome of the Mar. 22 presidential vote, anticipating surprise last-hour twists in an already fiercely contested race.

Saturday’s voting saw the ruling pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) defeated by the pro-unification Nationalist party, the Kuomintang, stirring hopes in Beijing that DPP’s eight-year rule might be coming to an end.

The poll has been watched closely as a gauge of public support for President Chen Shui-bian’s drive to boost Taiwan’s separate identity and formalise its de facto independence from Beijing over the last 60 years.

China, which regards the self-governing island as a renegade province, stopped short of commenting officially on the outcome of the elections, apparently for fear of bestowing unwarranted attention on what it onsiders “local elections”.

But Chinese academics have been warning that the Kuomintang still faces steep odds to secure a victory in March despite their landmark win Saturday. The KMT and its allies captured 86 seats in the 113-member parliament, compared to just 27 for Chen’s DPP.

Taiwan polls have underestimated DPP support in the past and analysts believe it is still possible for the Kuomintang to lose in March. Mainland China analysts have always alleged that DPP’s narrow victory in the 2004 presidential elections was at least partially the result of a mysterious election-eve shooting, which caused a swell of sympathy votes for the injured Chen and led to his razor-thin re-election.

“Chen Shui-bian is about to step down but he has still managed to steal the show from the two main contenders for the presidential post,” says Taiwan Straits observer, Wang Yiwei. “He knows how to drive up public support by using the ‘referendum card’.”

True to his pro-independence agenda over the past eight years, Chen has pushed for a controversial referendum in March, at the time of presidential elections, on whether the island should apply to join the United Nations under the name of Taiwan, rather than its formal name, the Republic of China.

Ahead of the legislative elections last week Chen also warned voters that handing victory to the Kuomintang could lead to reunification with China “anytime soon”. Kuomintang’s presidential hopeful, Ma Ying-jeou, a former Taipei mayor, has said he would work to improve ties with China if elected.

“If the Kuomintang won, then reunification with China could be realised anytime soon,” Chen told reporters at the DDP’s headquarters. “Should that happen, Taiwan could become another Hong Kong or Macao”.

Chen’s United Nation membership bid has outraged Beijing, which regards any move by Taiwan to consolidate its self-identity and sovereignty as an attempt to change the cross-strait status quo.

Three years ago, the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament, passed an “anti-secession law”, which legitimises a military attack on Taiwan if Chinese leaders believe it is justified. Beijing has said it considers the referendum a violation of the law because it could lead to an even more sensitive vote on Taiwanese independence.

Washington, an informal ally of Taiwan and it biggest arms supplier, has told Taipei that it does not want the island to hold such a referendum because it may raise tension across the Taiwan Strait.

Speaking at a state department press conference in late December Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described the planned referendum as “provocative”. “It promises no real benefits for the people of Taiwan on the international stage,” she was quoted as saying.

DPP however, defends its proposed referendum as an attempt to draw world’s attention to the international siege laid by Beijing and to the continuous military build up opposite the island. For the past 14 years Taiwan has sought admission to the UN using its official title, the Republic of China, but failed in each attempt because of Beijing’s opposition.

Beijing has also blocked Taiwanese membership in the World Health Assembly (associated with the WHO) and opposed high-level Taiwan participation in regional organisations like APEC.

China and Taiwan have been ruled separately since 1949 when Chiang Kai-shek’ s Nationalist forces suffered defeat at the hands of the Mao Zedong’s Communist troops and fled to the island. Taiwan was expelled from the United Nations in 1971 when its seat – which it held under the name Republic of China – was given to the Beijing-based government of the People’s Republic of China.

Since then Taiwan has fought fierce competition with China for international recognition. Over the years the number of countries recognising mainland China has risen to 169 while Taiwan’s score has declined to 24.

Even as Taiwanese were heading for the polls, Beijing kept the international pressure up. Last week reports suggested China was trying to woo Malawi – one of Taiwan’s African allies, with six billion US dollars in aid.

The Kuomintang advocates rapprochement with China in order to expand economic ties with the mainland while preserving the island’s autonomy. Although business ties across the Taiwan strait have grown rapidly under the administration of Chen Shui-bian, his government still limits investment in China and bans Chinese investment in Taiwan companies.

Some observers say Taiwan’s economy, one of the world’s top 20 economies has suffered from Chen’s refusal to benefit from its proximity to China’s economic boom.

Kuomintang’s candidate Ma Ying-jeou has pledged to allow mainland tourists to visit Taiwan, and wants to reinstate direct transportation, commerce andpostal links that were cut off six decades ago. He campaigns against DPP’s presidential candidate, Frank Hsieh who has promised to normalise economic ties with China but favours independence.