EUROPE: To Recognise Kosovo Or Not

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Zoltán Dujisin

PRAGUE, Mar 14 2008 (IPS) - Central-Eastern Europe is questioning how, when and if Kosovo’s independence should be recognised, amid fears that the Western-imposed move will spark domestic instability and insecurity in the Balkans.

On Feb. 17 Kosovo, a disputed southern region of Serbia, made a unilateral declaration of independence that was swiftly recognised by big Western countries but strongly opposed by Serbia and Russia.

Poland and Slovenia are the region’s only countries to have recognised the new Balkans state, while Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic have been left in a tight spot for different reasons, although they are also expected to eventually recognise Kosovo.

Were it not for the expectations of Western powers, the post-socialist countries would not have accepted Kosovo’s independence, as shown by statements from the Polish and Slovak prime ministers who implied the situation was forced upon the European Union (EU) by the United States and its Western European allies.

“We all have doubts concerning Kosovo. Maybe only Americans seem not to have any doubts at all,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said a few days before recognising Kosovo’s independence declaration.

Warning that the issue had divided EU, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico condemned European countries that “immediately joined the side of the United States.”

In Hungary, U.S. ambassador April Foley caused controversy by stating that the U.S. “hopes and expects that Hungary will recognise” Kosovo, in what sounded like a demand.

A majority of voices in the region believe the latest redrawing of borders in the Balkans will cause instability, and delay EU membership for countries in the region, especially Serbia, a key Balkans nation.

Among the Central and Eastern European countries, Hungary has the greatest reasons to worry: being Serbia’s northern neighbour, it is directly affected by any regional instability in the Balkans.

“For Hungary relations with Serbia are important, it is a trade partner and could become a possible political ally within the EU,” Filip Tesar, a Balkans specialist at the Institute of International Relations in Prague told IPS.

With an ethnic Hungarian minority of some 300,000 inhabiting the northern Serbian region of Vojvodina, Budapest fears that the expected revival of Serbian nationalist feeling means that a hasty recognition of Kosovo could spark violence against its ethnic kin.

Representatives of the Vojvodina Hungarians themselves have asked Budapest to exert restraint over Kosovo.

Hungarians fear Vojvodina’s ethnic composition could be altered by a massive influx of Serb refugees from Kosovo, as was the case after the Bosnian conflict in the early 1990s.

But during a visit to Budapest shortly after Kosovo’s secession, Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica reminded Hungarians that Serbia has constitutional guarantees against altering the ethnic composition of its regions.

Hungarian politicians share the view that convincing Serbia to strive for EU membership is the best way to protect Budapest’s interests, though the task is difficult without Brussels making decisive gestures towards Belgrade.

Czechs, Slovaks and Poles have also made similarly strong calls for the facilitation of Belgrade’s path towards the EU.

As has been admitted by Polish politicians, Warsaw’s recognition did not entail particular sympathy for Kosovo Albanians, but rather the new liberal cabinet’s wish to join the mainstream of European politics by adopting the same stance as most big EU players.

A traditional ally of Serbia, the Czech Republic has announced it would eventually recognise Kosovo once a majority of EU states do so. Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek added that recognition would only come if Kosovo guarantees law and order, the protection of minorities, and if international supervision is maintained.

Czechs consider that Serbians have always lent a helpful hand in difficult times, protecting their dissidents under communism or by Yugoslav condemnation of the 1968 Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia.

Czech President Vaclav Klaus went further, and stopped short of comparing Kosovo’s independence to the 1938 Munich treaty in which the leaders of the great western countries agreed Czechoslovakia would cede its western border areas to Nazi Germany.

The parallel has been drawn by many politicians and average Czechs, with a few hundred organising protests to express solidarity with Serbia.

The recently re-elected Klaus, who says Kosovo opens a “Pandora’s box”, announced that one of his first foreign visits in his second term as President would be to Serbia, one of the Czech Republic’s main recipients of foreign aid.

Harsher rhetoric could be heard in Slovakia, where Kosovo has for months been a major topic of debate due to fears that its 500,000-strong Hungarian minority would use the precedent for stepping up autonomy demands, or even make irredentist claims.

All Slovak parties, with the exception of the Hungarian Coalition Party, have so far refused to recognise the breakaway region’s independence.

“Slovakia diplomacy is pragmatic and its minister of foreign affairs knows independence is a fact, but the majority of the Slovak parliament is influenced by the wish to have friendly ties with Serbia,” Tesar told IPS.

“The Czech Republic presents a similar case, in which the majority of Czech politicians are Serbophiles,” the analyst said.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has called the declaration of independence “a gross mistake” and said Bratislava might never recognise it.