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KOSOVO: Irredentist Ripples Spread Out

Analysis by Zoltán Dujisin

PRAGUE, Mar 21 2008 (IPS) - While the world wonders whether Kosovo’s proclaimed independence will indeed constitute a precedent, its initial effects on other frozen conflicts in Europe are beginning to be felt.

On Feb. 17 Kosovo, the disputed southern region of Serbia, made a unilateral declaration of independence that was swiftly recognised in the West but strongly opposed by Serbia and Russia.

Western leaders say Kosovo would not become a precedent, but international law experts are sceptical, and say such standards play an important role in shaping the international order.

But the possible independence of breakaway regions will probably depend on the geopolitical considerations of superpowers and the alliances between them and states facing irredentist movements, rather than on increasingly disrespected international legislation.

There could be many precedent-setting elements. “The fact that Kosovo’s independence was unilaterally declared and internationally recognised, the presence of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) troops, the elections organised by the international community, and the existence of ethnic cleansing as a precondition are some of the many elements of this precedent,” Nicu Popescu, research fellow at the London office of the European Council on Foreign Relations told IPS.

The first irredentist movement Kosovo’s declared independence might catapult is in the region’s own backyard – northern Kosovo is home to 40,000 Serbians who inhabit a territory mentally and institutionally loyal to Serbia.

But Kosovo Serb leaders have so far excluded the possibility as it would amount to recognising the independence of the remainder of the region.

Claims of Kosovo as precedent are now being heard more widely.

In nearby Bosnia the People’s Assembly of the Serbian Republika Srpska, one of the two entities in which Bosnia has been divided since 1995 (the Croat-Muslim federation is the other), has said it will demand secession once a majority of EU and UN members recognise Kosovo.

“The resolution has already caused political tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Aleksandar Miletic from the Institute for Recent History of Serbia told IPS. “But Serbia cannot apply the Kosovo precedent in the case of the Bosnian Serb entity because it cannot recognise Kosovo.”

Recent talks on constitutional changes in Bosnia saw Serbian politicians pushing for people’s right to self-determination to be included in the constitution. However, Bosnia is still supervised by a powerful foreign administration, and the demands of local politicians could be simply an attempt at strengthening the Serbian position vis-a-vis Croats and Bosniaks within the federation.

Moreover, many agree that any eventual unification of Republika Srpska with Serbia depends more on domestic events than on developments in Kosovo.

Russia, the most powerful opponent of Kosovo’s independence, has realised its growing power cannot yet match that of the West, but is certain to use Kosovo as a foreign policy tool.

While saying it will not follow the West’s example on Kosovo, Moscow says it is now entitled to revise its attitude towards conflict regions in its vicinity.

In a first reaction to Kosovo’s independence, Russia has lifted its economic blockade on the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia, angering its Caucasian southern neighbour.

Georgia claims Moscow intends to economically annex its region, and warned that it is prepared to use force to protect its territorial integrity.

Georgia’s muscular rhetoric has been telling of its inability to defrost diplomacy, but its recent threats stem from fears that Moscow could start exporting military equipment to Abkhazia with the blockade lifted.

In early March, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, another Georgian breakaway region, appealed to the world community to recognise their already proclaimed independence, by making reference to Kosovo.

“The leaders of Abkhazia failed to make a convincing argument, but it’s also true they didn’t really try that hard, which happened because they fell between their wish to use Kosovo’s independence and the Russian opposition to it becoming a precedent,” Popescu told IPS.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia are highly dependent on Moscow, but while South Ossetians would prefer to join North Ossetia in Russia, Abkhazians claim to have viability as a democratic, independent state.

Moscow has never admitted to the possibility of recognising either Abkhazia oor South Ossetia, as this could isolate it internationally and encourage domestic separatism. But an upgrading of its relations with the pariah states is under way.

Due to Georgia’s pro-Western orientation, lately expressed in its wish to join NATO, Russia has tolerated the de facto existence of the two republics and has kept peacekeeping forces in the area, which Western observers say are contributing to the stand-off, and impeding Georgia’s accession to NATO.

Fearing for their autonomy, the two regions broke away from Georgia in the early 1990s amid the Soviet Union collapse, provoking a military conflict that caused thousands of deaths and displacement of people on all sides.

Moldova, also home to the separatist region of Transnistria, has brighter prospects. Disagreements between the two sides are not irreconcilable as the division is not ethnically-based. While the Transnistrian Soviet-type regime enjoys support from Moscow, Russia could facilitate reunification if certain conditions are fulfilled.

The solution preferred by Russia would envision a co-federation in which both sides have a right to veto important decisions, and Moldova gives assurances it will not join NATO.

According to Popescu, the conflict resembling Kosovo the most is taking place in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan since 1988, and largely ignored by the West.

The Azeri region has an 80 percent Armenian population and a history of human rights violations on both sides.

Armenia has hailed Kosovo’s independence, though it stopped short of admitting that it served as a precedent for Nagorno-Karabakh, whereas Azerbaijan strongly condemned the Kosovan move.

Rhetoric between the sides has been belligerent, and their positions intransigent, sparking fears that Azerbaijan might seek a military solution before the independence of a region crossed by important oil and gas pipelines becomes impossible to ignore.

“The situation is destabilising quickly, but not for reasons directly connected to Kosovo,” Popescu says. “Kosovo will rather be used as a tool than a clear-cut precedent. Russia uses it in a moderate way to put pressure on Georgia and Moldova, and very clearly to undermine the credibility of the U.S. and EU states that have supported the move.”

Most recently, Moscow has linked last week’s disturbances in Tibet in China to Kosovo’s independence declaration.

 
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