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POLITICS-THAILAND: Rumours Rife of Another Coup

Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, May 30 2008 (IPS) - The rumour mill in Thailand is on overdrive with speculation of another coup in the offing.

Reports in the local press are embellished with details about which senior officers in the army hold the cards to execute a military intervention. A poll conducted by Bangkok’s Assumption University this month amplified this emerging turbulence: nearly 60 percent of the respondents surveyed noted that another coup would occur.

Furthermore, a comment by a ranking member of the Thai military has added to the rumours swirling among civilian circles. ‘’No soldier wants to stage a coup to topple the government but I cannot guarantee that there will be no more coups,’’ supreme military commander, Gen. Boonsrang Niumpradit, was quoted in Friday’s edition of ‘The Nation’ newspaper.

The first hint of what would be the country’s 19th coup surfaced in late March, when Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej said, during his weekly television address to the country, that he had received a leaflet warning him about political tension being created to enable the military to step in. Then there was a ‘’coup buzz’’ on Apr. 21, when battalion commanders who protect Bangkok had a meeting at the Department of Royal Infantry 11, reports the ‘Bangkok Post’ newspaper.

But neither of those occasions triggered the kind of frenzy currently on display. Feeding this stark shift in tone and intensity are the increasingly violent street protests near a historic part of the Thai capital. Last weekend, pro- and anti-government groups clashed, resulting in many injuries after demonstrators threw stones and assaulted each other.

In the vanguard of the anti-government movement is the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), a motley group that champions ultra-nationalist views and is claiming to be the true defender of the South-east Asian nation’s political soul. It has threatened more protests aimed at bringing down the coalition government headed by Samak.

The PAD, led by a combative media mogul, Sondhi Limthongkul, has been down this road before. It spearheaded the street protests in early 2006 against the then prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, that led to his democratically-elected administration being driven out of power by the military on September 19, 2006. The PAD’s protest campaign two years ago targeted Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai (TRT – Thais Love Thai) party on alleged charges of corruption, nepotism and abuse of power.

But the PAD’s hope of seeing the last of Thaksin, a billionaire telecommunications tycoon who led Thailand for over five years, did not materialise. For the People Power Party (PPP), which Samak heads, is a successor of the TRT. And Thaksin continues to remain a powerful political figure behind the PPP, despite having no seat in the current parliament.

What touched off the PAD’s latest street demonstrations is the move by the Samak government to amend the 2007 constitution, which was drafted by a committee hand-picked by the ruling junta at that time. The PPP-led coalition wants to do away with clauses in the 2007 charter that state that an entire political party can be disbanded if its members cheated at an election – and not individual violators of election laws.

‘’The PAD sees this attempt to amend the constitution as a way to resurrect the Thaksin regime. This will give the 111 members of the Thai Rak Thai party who were banned last year to return to politics,’’ Thitinan Pingsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulaongkorn, told IPS. ‘’The PAD wants to uproot the Thaksin regime completely.’’

The TRT was found guilty of election malpractice by a junta-appointed special tribunal in mid-2007, resulting in the dissolution of the party and 111 of its executive members, including Thaksin, were banned from politics for five years. That verdict was welcome by supporters of the PAD and other anti-Thaksin forces who belonged to the bureaucracy, the military and old-money aristocrats in this kingdom.

Thailand’s voters, however, had different ideas about such a judgement. They threw their support behind the new face of the TRT – the PPP – at the December parliamentary elections, delivering a severe blow to the country’s political elites and conservative establishment.

But the PAD and its allies have refused to accept this election verdict shaped by the country’s rural and urban poor, who make up the largest constituency in the country and where Thaksin and his allies have a strong following. The PAD also sees the push to amend the constitution as an effort by the PPP to avoid a possible court verdict calling for it to be dissolved following cases of cheating during the December poll.

In the recent days, moreover, the PAD has broadened its agenda to touch on sensitive political issues, such as standing up to potential threats to the country’s revered royal institution. ‘’Now the PAD has shifted its focus to also defend and be a guardian of the monarchy, the nation and religion,’’ added Thitinan. ‘’There is the danger that with this shift they are pushing for the downfall of the government.’’

Attempts to drag the country’s revered monarchy into politics invariably draw the military into the picture, since the soldiers swear an oath of loyalty to protect the royal institution. In fact, one of the reasons the military leaders of 2006 used to justify the putsch that year was to protect the monarchy.

Street clashes, resulting in bloodshed, over disputed clauses in the country’s constitutions are hardly novel, either. In 1992, there was a bloody showdown between pro-democracy groups and the military over a clause in a new charter that permitted a new prime minister to be a non-elected member of parliament. That was to pave the way for the then military dictator, Gen. Suchinda Kraprayoon, who had grabbed power the previous year in a coup, to lead the government in the legislature.

Suddenly, Thailand in May 2008 is no different to what it was in May 2006. Yet analysts warn that a coup this year may be more violent than the last putsch, when soldiers were greeted with flowers and ice cream cones by Bangkok’s citizens.