PHILIPPINES: Cheating Scandal Raises Questions about Noisy Democracy

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Johanna Son

MANILA, Jun 26 2005 (IPS) - When rumours of a coup and a popular revolt rise in the Philippines, protest rallies get underway, the local currency stumbles, and the distribution of political jokes through mobile phones reaches a peak, it can only mean one thing: a political crisis is brewing in this country – all over again.

The indications have been apparent for over a month, putting politics on overdrive in this South-east Asian country of 80 million people known for its free-wheeling, noisy brand of democracy.

It also highlights, once again, questions about where the Philippines’ democratic institutions are, nearly 20 years after the 1986 ‘People Power’ revolt that ended the Marcos dictatorship and restored democracy.

Talk of calling for a third popular revolt – the second one in 2001 booted out former president Joseph Estrada – is fuelling worries that Filipinos are adopting a bad habit of kicking out their leaders and using what some call "mob rule", instead of constitutional means, to bring about political change.

‘Gloria running out of time’, yelled a Manila tabloid. ‘Oust Gloria!’ read placards carried by protesters who marched toward the presidential palace over the weekend, referring to President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who in early June was accused of having cheated in the May 2004 elections.

In late May, her husband, brother-in-law and son, an elected member of the House of Representatives, were accused of receiving funds from illegal gambling and are now the subject of a Senate inquiry.

News reports said more than 5,000 people – still a far cry from the hundreds of thousands to millions who took part in the 1986 and 2001 protests that unseated two Philippine presidents – took part in rallies Saturday asking Arroyo to step down.

The evidence of so-called wrongdoing lies in tapes of wiretapped conversations between Arroyo and a member of the Commission on Elections during the counting of votes after the 2004 presidential elections.

In these tapes, which Arroyo’s camp says have been tampered with by groups seeking to destabilise the government, a voice that sounds like the president’s asks elections commissioner Virgilio Garcillano about the progress of vote-counting in some parts of the country.

The commissioner, supposed to be an independent official, replies with references to adjusting upwards the number of votes for Arroyo and that he would "take care" of vote results. At one point, the voice that sounds like Arroyo’s asks for reassurances of still "winning by one million votes".

"The president must speak now, before it is too late," said Senator Roilo Golez. "Her not speaking on the matter is affecting her credibility."

"As former supporters, we hope it’s not true, but if she’s the one on tape, painful as it is to us, she has to accept that she has to step down," said Sixto Macasaet of the Caucus of Development NGOs, one of the biggest supporters of the 2001 protests that led to Estrada’s ouster and the assumption of power by Arroyo, vice president at the time.

The president has chosen not to address the issue of the tapes. She says that both the official and unofficial counts in the 2004 election, where foreign observers were present, proclaimed her the duly elected winner.

"They want to entrap me, but I will not surrender to the destabilisers," she said on Jun. 17.

The Philippine peso fell to more than 55 pesos to a dollar last week, the lowest in months. Positive news, like that of 5 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter, was overshadowed by the tape scandal. It dominates talk shows, radio commentaries and online ‘web logs’, and the tapes can be downloaded from the Internet.

Apart from calling for a third revolt, some politicians have urged the creation of independent commissions and others, impeachment proceedings.

But while these make for a lot of noise, they would not necessarily lead to political action.

"Tell me, which politician hasn’t cheated?" argued Cathy Martelino, an employee of a publishing agency. "Are we really shocked by this, or just shocked that cheaters can get caught?" asked Celeste, who works in the Makati financial district.

For all the column inches, radio hours and coffee-shop talk devoted to the tapes, Filipinos do not appear – not yet at least – so inspired as to take to the streets again. "People power fatigue", some call it.

"There is a calibrated and methodical plot, whose authors have not yet been identified, to overthrow the government. This plot apparently seeks to press for a change of government through extra-constitutional and extra-legal modes," wrote political commentator Amando Doronila in the ‘Philippine Daily Inquirer’.

But "the people are not in the mood to be used as cannon fodder on behalf of the disgruntled hotheads and rabble rousers," he added.

While the truth must be established, Doronila says allegations should be processed through constitutional means, such as impeachment. "Any other mode destroys the constitutional system and invites a regime of lawlessness, leading to anarchy."

One politician has even suggested that Arroyo simply apologise if she has done wrong because there is no real credible alternative to her as president, and that Filipinos might in fact forgive her.

Prof Felipe Miranda of the University of the Philippines says that the situation – including the use of humour and sarcasm through mobile-phone jokes, as in the weeks before the 2001 revolt – shows that "right now, we have to see what the threshold of the society is" on the tape issue.

"People also learn from the past, after giving previous leaders the benefit of the doubt, but as time passes, this becomes shorter," he said on television.

For now, Filipinos continue to use creative protests, downloading and passing on ring-tones for mobile phones featuring a voice that sounds like Arroyo’s saying, "Hello, Garci? Garci? (Garcillano’s nickname.) I’ll win by a million votes?"

Beyond the truth of whether the tapes were tampered with or not, whether the president cheated or not, and what means should be used to get to the truth of the allegations, Filipinos should be worrying about other questions.

An elections commissioner occupies a constitutionally mandated office and is supposed to be impartial – and not, as the voice that appears to be Garcillano’s talking to the president, refer to "our side" in the election.

If the president indeed called the commissioner, that puts into question an agency vital to the integrity of a democratic electoral process – and of the selection of the country’s leader.

A former elections commissioner, Christian Monsod, recalled that ex- President Corazon Aquino never called him and that Estrada telephoned only in 1992, to ask about election procedures. "But to ask about status, about (margins) of votes, I don’t think that is a question that should be asked by any candidate – particularly by a president – of an (election) commissioner she appointed."