MIDEAST: Israeli Russians Could Swing the Vote

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Fawzia Sheikh

JERUSALEM, Feb 28 2006 (IPS) - Although Israeli pollsters peg the Kadima Party as the frontrunner in winning next month’s elections, it is still uncertain who will secure the coveted Russian vote that always plays a critical role on polling day.

Russian immigrants, at one million strong and comprising an estimated 20 percent of the tiny country’s population, are known for their unpredictable voting preferences. They are one of the fastest growing groups in Israel. The bulk of immigration began in 1988 and continued for 10 years, but a stream of Russians is still entering Israel.

Political parties have begun a mad dash to target Russian immigrants ahead of the March 28 general elections, relying on a combination of ad campaigns, Russian candidates, door-to-door canvassing and declarations of Russian heritage.

“This group of electors or voters can change the face of any parliamentary coalition,” said Dr. Ze’ev Khanin in the department of political studies at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat-Gan.

Khanin said the Russian-speaking community has been the deciding factor in Israeli elections for more than a decade: in 1992 when Yitzhak Rabin won, four years later when Binyamin Netanyahu came to power, and in 1999 when Ehud Barak was elected.

“They always vote for different issues,” Khanin told IPS. “That is why they may support different candidates from different sides of Israel’s political spectrum.”

Half of Russian immigrants are strongly concerned about foreign policy and security, while the others are focused on socio-economic and civil matters, he said.

These right-of-centre immigrants are “closely identified with Ariel Sharon,” noted Ira Sharkansky, professor of political science and public administration at Hebrew University in Jerusalem. “He was tough. He could also speak to them in Russian.”

But now their commitment to the comatose prime minister’s governing Kadima party is in question, said Sharkansky. He said Russian voters seem to shy away from Kadima and its interim leader Ehud Olmert. “They don’t know him as well perhaps.”

Olmert realises his ethnic shortcomings vis-à-vis Russian society. Sharkansky said that in the last few days Olmert has made a point of saying his mother was born in the Ukrainian city Odessa, and he would have learned Russian were it not for some extenuating circumstances.

Khanin blames the party’s waning popularity among Russian voters on several corruption scandals, and its unclear positions on socio-economic and foreign policy issues.

Although Kadima has its drawbacks, Sharkansky believes both the Labour and Likud parties are making political mistakes.

Labour is billing itself as a socialist party, which is “the last thing Russians want” following life in the former communist Soviet Union.

Likud, meanwhile, is a so-called territorialist party that seems to have a one-issue platform of making no compromises with Palestinians over land. The “bombastic, overblown” style of Likud leader Netanyahu has not earned praise among Israelis, including Russian immigrants.

Netanyahu’s attitude has manifested itself in contentious Likud ads showing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s face morphing into that of Olmert. The ad, called ‘Red Dawn’, is meant to criticise Russia for inviting Hamas leaders for political talks in Moscow, and Olmert for allowing the militant Hamas to take part in Palestinian elections in January.

Since Sharon’s debilitating stroke in January, some Russian voters seem to have fled the Kadima stronghold for the Likud camp. Still, Sharkansky believes ultimately more will gravitate towards Russian politician Avigdor Lieberman, a nationalist who is strong on defence issues and whose rhetoric is frequently written in Russian. His party is Yisrael Beiteinu.

But some argue Russian-speaking Israelis do not necessarily need to vote for a fellow Russian. In the past, newly arrived immigrants felt inclined to do so because they were estranged in their new political, social and cultural environment, said Dr. Marc Amusin, a journalist and editor of Russian heritage.

“They didn’t feel the traditional politics of Israel represented them,” Amusin told IPS. He said they eventually became more integrated into Israeli society and consequently the power of Russian political parties has declined.

Once again, though, Russian Israelis may put their faith in someone from their former homeland. Amusin said Lieberman’s growing appeal is primarily due to the loss of Sharon as a credible candidate representing Russian interests.

Lieberman has fine-tuned his image, Amusin said. “He presents himself as a strong man from their own country and a man who they can believe in.”

No other significant immigrant group apart from 60,000 Ethiopians has come to Israel in recent years, maintaining the status of Russians as the most sought-after minority voter bloc. Moreover, said Sharkansky, while Russians are well-educated and highly politicised, Ethiopians hail from a society that has not prepared them for the same degree of political activity.