HUNGARY: Socialist Continuity Bucks the Trend

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Zoltán Dujisin

BUDAPEST, Apr 26 2006 (IPS) - In the first parliamentary elections since it joined the EU, Hungary has reconfirmed the socialist-lead governmental coalition, in a surprisingly convincing victory that leaves the right wing opposition in a very delicate situation.

This is the first time in post-communist Hungary that a government has obtained re-election. After the first round on the Apr. 9 was inconclusive, 110 constituencies were allocated on Sunday’s second round, resulting in 210 seats for the MSZP socialists and the SZDSZ liberals, 164 for the opposition Fidesz and 11 for the conservative Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF).

Most observers agree Fidesz made one too many mistakes, but the undecided voters have not only punished the right-wing’s political style; they have also opted for continuity despite some serious challenges faced by the country..

The socialists have been criticised for accumulating an enormous budget deficit, the largest in the European Union (EU) relative to the size of its economy, and there is also consensus on the need for radical reform in the health and education sectors.

The right wing has furthermore criticised the government for failing to protect Hungarian families and small and medium enterprises against foreign capital.

Much of the merit in this victory lies in the newly-found charismatic figure of the left, Prime-Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány.

The socialist politician appeared on the Hungarian political scene only two years ago in a bid to refresh a party where the older Péter Medgyessi, a former communist official, had become too unpopular.

Gyurcsány, who admits to model himself after British Prime Minister Tony Blair, is a former leader of the communist party’s youth wing, and became a millionaire with the transition to parliamentary democracy, something of which he is constantly reminded by the right.

The campaign was marked by the candidates’ populism and their economically unsustainable electoral promises, but the socialists managed to pass an optimistic and ideology-free message, while Fidesz opted for a more confrontational and pessimistic tone which did not find its way to the public.

The appeal of opposition leader Viktor Orbán is strong among his long-time supporters, but his style has failed to reap him additional votes. Fidesz’s voter base ranges from the centre-right to the extreme right, and the latter element has scared off many of the moderate voters.

The charismatic leader, who had previously admitted the possibility of resigning in case of defeat, now faces a tough challenge as he has accumulated two consecutive electoral losses and will feel the pressure from within.

But many wonder what sort of party Fidesz would remain without him. “He is the very personality, the symbol of unity for all the movements that make up Fidesz,” Bába Iván, head of the foreign relations office for Fidesz told IPS. “His position is very strong, but it will depend on him if he wants to give the position to someone else.”

While Fidesz will enter a long period of internal reflection, one of its former allies is breathing new life. The conservatives of the MDF managed to get into parliament against all predictions, and are trying to assert themselves as an autonomous party on the Hungarian political scene.

During the two weeks that preceded the second round of the elections, Orbán desperately tried to attract the MDF leader Ibolya Dávid into a right-wing coalition. The Fidesz leader went as far as withdrawing his own nomination for prime minister, leaving his party without an official candidate for the second round.

Fidesz proposed the MDF leader for the position, but she refused by arguing that Fidesz’s “left-wing economic policies”, “irresponsible promises”, and its “populism” were incompatible with her party’s political programme, whose slogan is “For a normal Hungary”.

The MDF, which led the first post-communist government in Hungary, has long-term plans to return to power, and felt a coalition with Fidesz would have endangered its independence. Additionally, the MDF stresses its anti-populist and liberal-economic stance against the more patriotic-minded and protectionist Fidesz.

The pro-market conservatives seem to have perceived the fatigue of much of the Hungarian right with populist and nationalist rhetoric, but for András Kovács, a professor from Budapest’s Central European University, “the nationalist card has not been played so strongly in this campaign” and instead the right is moving to a more “eurosceptic attitude”.

Orbán has blamed the right’s defeat on a “lack of unity”, in a direct allusion to Dávid. “Our opponents kept their unity and therefore they won,” he told a press conference when congratulating the winners.

But also left-wing voters could feel defrauded if the socialists’ high-spending promises do not materialise. Gyurcsány faces great pressure to tackle Hungary’s structural problems immediately, even from his own coalition.

An early start in unpopular reforms would increase the socialist’s chances to win the next legislatives, but many fear the municipal elections next October could interfere with plans.

However, the Socialist-liberal solid victory and substantial majority will facilitate taking tough measures. Public opinion is also increasingly aware of the need to make cuts in government spending, and might show some degree of understanding.