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FIJI: Junta Tightens Grip on Pariah State

Shailendra Singh

SUVA, Dec 18 2006 (IPS) - Military leader Commodore Frank Bainimarama continues to consolidate his hold on the country since staging the Dec 15 coup although he is hardly out of the woods with the economy in decline and no let up in international pressure.

While the three previous coups in the last 20 years were staged to unseat ethnic Indian-led governments, Bainimarama’s coup ejected an indigenous Fijian prime minister and the military’s greatest threat was the possibility of his supporters resorting to rioting and arson.

But with Laisenia Qarase – whose government Bainimarama accused of corruption and racism – exiled to his island home in the province of Lau and prevented by the military from coming to the capital, that threat appears to have been effectively neutralised for now.

Qarase seems to have grudgingly accepted that his return to power anytime soon is unlikely, telling national television last week that he would now focus on strengthening his pro-indigenous Soqosoqo Duavata ni Leweni Vanua Party for the next general elections, which he believes will be held in two years.

The 3,000-strong military, which is 95 percent indigenous Fijian, has also resisted attempts to divide it along tribal lines by chiefs loyal to Qarase. At least two influential provincial chiefs had called on their men serving in the army to lay down arms and march back to their villages and not to obey any illegal orders from their commander. The call has so far gone unheeded.

Meanwhile, some indigenous and nationalist groups have voiced support for Bainimarama. Last week, the army accepted a traditional apology from a group of Nabukavesi villagers for their support of the 2000 coup staged by failed businessman, George Speight.

Bainimarama narrowly escaped an assassination attempt by Speight supporters in the army who staged a mutiny in November 2000. One of his major grievances with the Qarase government was the support and patronage it gave to some of those involved in the May 2000 coup and the mutiny.

In another sign of indigenous groups accepting Bainimarama’s authority, the ultra-nationalist Conservative Alliance Party said that no one could change what had happened.

The group is politically aligned to the Speight, who is now serving a life sentence for treason. It called on the military to bar Qarase from returning to the capital. Spokesman Ropate Sivo said that Qarase should not question the legality of the military clean up as the country was going through tough times.

The civil service, statutory organisations and statutory boards have been purged of Qarase loyalists and replaced by Bainimarama sympathisers.

The police force has accepted and traditionally welcomed a new commissioner, and the Fiji Human Rights Commission has approved a military-appointed ombudsman, although several civil society groups have attacked the appointments as unconstitutional.

The military claims that 400 people have applied for positions in an interim administration that it intends to form.

In a move that is likely to win public support, the military-installed interim prime minister Dr Jona Senilagakali announced the cancellation of an unpopular 2.5 percentage point rise in sales tax ordered by the deposed government. The increase would have taken the sales tax to 15 per cent.

For now, internal stability has been secured, but preventing the economy from freefalling is an imminent challenge. Massive job losses could see an angry population turn against the army.

Fiji Labour Party leader and the former prime minister, Mahendra Chaudhry has expressed concern about what he says is the rapidly deteriorating social and economic situation in the country.

“The economy, already fragile, is now on the brink of collapse and urgent measures are necessary to arrest any further decline in order to prevent more job losses and the social dislocation and distress likely as a result,” said Chaudhry, whose government was ousted in the May 2000 coup after just one year in power.

Associate professor in economics, Dr Biman Prasad, agrees that the economy had already sustained considerable damage.

Speaking to IPS, he predicted that a forecast 2007 budget deficit of two per cent of GDP will likely increase to four or five per cent of GDP.

“Due to an increase in military spending and a decline in economic activity, GDP growth is likely to hit negative figures instead of pre-coup growth forecast of 2.6 per cent,” Prasad says.

The international community remains dead set against the coup, with the European Union suggesting it will withdraw its 422 million US dollar aid package for the crucial sugar industry.

Fiji has also been expelled from the Commonwealth and has lost the chairmanship of the Pacific Islands Forum, the key regional political and economic development organisation. The country’s membership of the Forum is under review.

The secretary general of the Forum, Greg Urwin, said that member countries had expressed their collective commitment to upholding democratic processes and institutions in Forum member countries as enshrined in the Biketawa Declaration.

“The impacts of the removal of the democratically elected government are already beginning to have serious consequences not only for the economy and the welfare of the people of Fiji but also the international reputation of Fiji and the region as a whole.

“The crisis must be resolved through negotiation, within the Constitution and with respect for the rule of law,” Urwin said.

Australia and New Zealand, Fiji’s major bilateral partners, along with the U.S. and Britain, have suspended aid and technical support, and severed military ties.

Tourism, which accounts for 20 per cent of the GDP and is Fiji’s number one foreign exchange earner, remains a concern. A task force has been formed to ensure there is no significant decline in the 400,000 visitors that come annually.

Prasad says tourism has the ability to make a quick turnaround and will be crucial for recovery.

“But this depends on the continued maintenance of law and order,” adds Prasad. “Any sign of trouble in any part of the country will add to the climate of fear and lack of confidence. It will scare away tourists and make recovery in 2007 even more difficult.”

The garment industry, which employs around 20,000 people, mostly women, is also under threat if trade sanctions are imposed, while investment, which had been picking up and rose to 17 per cent of the GDP in 2004, is likely to stagnate, if not regress.

Says Ken Roberts, the CEO of the Fiji Employers Federation: “We have to recognise that a coup has an effect on employment creation activities and on donor reactions on aid programmes.”

How to avoid criminal charges against himself and his men is something Bainimarama would be preoccupied with.

The legal pitfalls of his actions were spelled out to him by the Citizens Constitutional Forum (CCF) executive director Reverend Akuila Yabaki in a letter dated December 12.

The confidential letter, which was aired on national television, points out that the alleged corruption and mal-administration by the Qarase government wasn’t a critical threat to the functioning of the state, which invalidates the ‘Doctrine of Necessity’ provision in the Constitution that the military cited in an attempt to legitimise the coup.

This in turn means that Bainimarama’s claim that military intervention was the only reasonable course of action available would not hold in a court of law.

Noting that Bainimarama may wish to seek amnesty for himself and his soldiers actions that may later prove to have been illegal, Rev Yabaki suggests that the first step for Bainimarama is to reinstate President Ratu Josefa Iloilo, whose powers he temporarily assumed in order to appoint an interim prime minister.

Once reinstated, Ratu Josefa would recall Parliament with all parliamentarians except those with May 2000 coup connections.

Reverend Yabaki continues that instead of Qarase, whom the military does not want, a new prime minister could be nominated by the ousted governing party, and a new multi-party cabinet would then be formed.

The second option suggested by the CCF executive director allows the handing over of authority to the President without parliament being recalled.

Instead an agreed panel of political and community leaders would be chosen to advise the President on the appointment of a caretaker government to lead the country to fresh elections. Yabaki adds that the caretaker government should be allowed to govern without interference from the military.

He says that amnesty could arguably be granted unilaterally by the President on the grounds of necessity, or by way of a constitutional amendment to be passed later by parliament.

For this to materialise, Bainimarama needs the acquiesce of the Great Council of Chiefs (GCC), a 55-member constitutional body made up of heredity leaders that elects the president and vice-president, and chooses some senators. The GCC has so far refused to endorse Bainimarama’s actions and still recognizes Qarase as the country’s lawful leader. All eyes will be on the GCC, which meets this week to discuss the crisis, including Bainimarama’s request that Rau Josefa be reinstated. Whether the GCC will allow itself to be used in this manner by Bainimarama remains to be seen.

According to the military strongman, his last option to ensure immunity for the military is to abrogate the 1997 Constitution.

Amnesty for coup makers is not something that the Fiji women’s Rights Movement director, Virisila Buadromo, supports. She believes that Fiji has become well and truly enmeshed in a coup culture because those implicated in past coups were not punished.

“We are like Pakistan where people resort to the use of guns to topple ruling governments,” she says.

Prasad believes it would be a tragedy if the 1997 Constitution, which espouses multiracialism and power sharing between Fiji’s different communities, was abrogated and replaced with a racist constitution as was done after the 1987 coups. “Fiji will again become a pariah state,” he said.