Asia-Pacific, Global, Global Geopolitics, Headlines

JAPAN: Avoiding Tough Topics as Wen Comes Calling

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Apr 10 2007 (IPS) - Marking the first visit to Japan by a Chinese premier in almost seven years, Wen Jiabao will land in Tokyo Wednesday on a visit that is expected to further thaw frosty relations between the neighbours – although analysts expect few concrete results from the summit.

”There is no doubt the meeting of Wen and his Japanese counterpart, Shinzo Abe, in Tokyo is an important step in the right direction. But it is hard to predict that the visit will make much headway in solving long standing issues between the two countries,” Prof. Masahi Nishihara, an expert on Asian Pacific security at the National Institute of Defence, told IPS during an interview.

Wen is essentially reciprocating a visit by Abe to Beijing last October. High level exchanges between the two countries had stopped since 2000 after Abe’s predecessor in office, Junichiro Koizumi, angered China by making official visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, dedicated to Japanese military leaders responsible for colonising northern China in the early part of the last century.

Abe, who took over leadership in September, placed priority on visiting Beijing and did so the following month. The visit earned him credit for ‘taking the right step’, but analysts point out that it did little to simmer down bilateral tensions.

Indeed, Wen arrives against growing problems that weigh down Sino-Japanese relations. These include China’s increased military spending, gas prospecting in the East China Sea and the testing in January of a ground-based medium-range ballistic missile that has raised hackles in Japan.

On the international front too, China is now proving a competitor for Japan in Asia. For example, Japan and China are both supporting development projects in the Mekong region, a position that is challenging Japan’s leadership through its official aid in the region.

”China’s double-digit economic growth has made the country more assertive and is posing a threat to Japanese influence in Asia. China is now one of the most difficult diplomatic challenges for Japan,” said Nishihara.

Experts contend that these concerns are at the top of Japan’s impressive strategy during the three-day trip. In order to set the right mood, Wen is scheduled to meet the Japanese Emperor and also become the first Chinese leader to speak in the Japanese Diet (parliament).

But the cautious editorials indicate the thorny path that lies ahead.

Referring to China’s military growth and other prickly issues, the ‘Asahi’ newspaper, a leading daily, sagely commented this week about the pending visit: ‘’It is difficult to remove the mistrust all at once.”

Still, Hiroko Maeda, an expert on China, insists that robust economic ties are, at the end of the day, the strongest of links. These, she says, can be expected to be used cleverly to the fullest extent by both sides during Wen’s visit.

‘’Neither leader wants to miss out on using the Wen visit to the best advantage. They will steer clear of difficult issues and use the visit to bring forward a positive picture,” she explained to IPS.

Japan-China trade has doubled during the last four years with direct overseas investment by Japanese companies in 2006 rising 10 percent to a record 50.29 billion US dollars. Also, Japan is currently China’s third biggest trading partner, with bilateral trade touching 207 billion dollars in 2006.

Reflecting the close trade ties, top economic officials accompanying Wen and their Japanese counterparts are scheduled to ink an agreement to form a new discussion group aimed at furthering economic cooperation.

Both sides will pledge to hold regular meetings on issues such as technology transfer and energy sharing – the latter a timely subject for the two countries as China searches for new energy sources to meet rising demand.

Japanese media report the setting up of a new air flight arrangement between Tokyo and Shanghai aimed at furthering the economic partnership.

There are also expectations that Japan will pledge continued assistance to China to fight pollution, especially for reducing global warming that is affecting Japan as well.

‘’The decision to suspend yen loans from 2008 should not include cleaning up the Chinese environment which is also important for Japan, a close neighbour,” opined Goshi Sato, an environmental economist at Kyushu University.

On the part of China, Japanese media reports a pledge by Wen to support Abe’s call to North Korea to work towards finding a solution to the bitterly emotional issue of returning Japanese nationals abducted by Pyongyang.

Wen, who is viewed here as a good diplomat, is expected to make the most of his visit to boost China’s dwindling image in Japan.

‘’Both leaders are keen to steer away from difficult issues. The visit will be smooth on the surface but the major differences will remain as Wen takes off for home from Tokyo, watched by a smiling Abe,” predicts Nishihara.