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POLITICS: UN, ASEAN Lock Hands on Burma

Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Oct 15 2007 (IPS) - Launching his latest diplomatic mission in South-east Asia, the United Nations special envoy for Burma has thrown his weight behind a view that governments in this region have to play a lead role in defusing the crisis in the military-ruled country.

Ibrahim Gambari flew into Bangkok on Sunday to begin a fresh round of consultations. After meeting senior Thai officials during the two-day visit, the seasoned Nigerian diplomat flies to Malaysia and Indonesia. Thereafter, he wings his way to countries beyond the region, stopping in China, Japan and India.

This leg comes after the stops he made in Singapore at the end of September, when Gambari was dispatched by the world body on an emergency mission as the Burmese regime turned to brute force to crackdown on thousands of unarmed Buddhist monks and civilians who had been peacefully protesting on the streets.

But if Gambari and the governments of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) were unsure about the impact of such diplomatic forays, then the days since Gambari left Burma, on Oct. 2, have proved instructive. The regime has continued to arrest and detain civilians and dissidents who had central and marginal roles in the street protests that reached a peak on Sep. 25, before a bloody crackdown. Anti-government groups estimate that over 2,000 people have been detained, including Buddhist monks, and some 200 people have been killed by the Burmese military and the riot police.

On Monday, after meeting senior Thai foreign ministry officials, Gambari expressed his disappointment at the ongoing crackdown in Burma, which the junta calls Myanmar. ‘’It runs counter to the spirit of mutual engagement between the UN and Myanmar,’’ he told reporters. ‘’These actions must stop at once.’’

He also described the steady trickle of reports of the on-going intimidation and interrogation of student leaders and sections of the public as ‘’extremely disturbing’’.

The tone and content of that message echoes similar language that has poured out of some South-east Asian capitals, where it has hitherto been the norm for countries to take cover behind vague diplomatic expressions rather than launch strident criticisms of a neighbour and an ASEAN member.

In a statement delivered during the week of the crackdown, ASEAN foreign ministers said, ‘’They were appalled to receive reports of automatic weapons being used and demanded that the Myanmar government immediately desist from the use of violence against demonstrators.’’ The regional grouping – which includes Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam – also urged the junta ‘’to exercise utmost restraint and seek a political solution.’’

Since then, Burma’s generals have been subject to more barbs. The strongest was delivered by Singapore’s founding father and former prime minister, Lee Kwan Yew. In an interview he gave to syndicated U.S. columnist Tom Plate, which was subsequently printed in the ‘Bangkok Post’ newspaper, Lee said: ‘’These are rather dumb generals when it comes to the economy.’’

‘’Why they believe they can keep their country cut off from the world like this indefinitely, I cannot understand,’’ he added. ‘’We will see how it is, but whatever it is, I do not believe that they can survive indefinitely.’’

Lee’s views capture the frustration felt in some South-east Asian capitals – such as Kuala Lumpur, Manila and Jakarta – in grappling with Burma. This year marks the 10th anniversary since ASEAN invited Burma to join its regional grouping. Lee was a founding member of this body, along with the leaders of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines, which was created in 1967. And the pattern set by Lee and his peers – that ASEAN will not interfere in the internal affair of a fellow member – continues to be respected.

‘’For 10 years the Burmese regime has been a millstone on the neck of ASEAN. Yet there was no pressure used on Burma for change,’’ Debbie Stothard, of the regional rights lobby Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma (ALTSEAN), explained in an interview. ‘’But this policy has backfired miserably.’’

The timing of the brutality in Burma could not have come at a worse time for ASEAN. It is due to hold a regional summit in Singapore in November to approve the ASEAN charter, which would transform the 40-year-old bloc into a rules-based inter-governmental organisation with aims to take regional unity to a new level.

‘’But how can they make claims to represent this region and get others to believe it when we see what is going on in Burma?’’ Stothard asks, rhetorically. ‘’No wonder they are willing to work with Gambari to find a solution.’’

In fact, Singapore has its own reasons to be concerned, since the affluent city-state is the current chairman of ASEAN and its leadership skills have come intense scrutiny after the world awoke to the scale of repression in Burma. ‘’Gambari’s mission to work with ASEAN is better for them,’’ Sinapan Samydorai of the Think Centre, a Singapore-based freedom of expression lobby, told IPS. ‘’It will help strengthen Singapore’s image as ASEAN’s leader.’’

But as ASEAN countries search for solutions, what cannot be concealed are the limits some of the countries have placed on themselves about being openly at odds with Burma. After all, there are substantial economic links between the region’s pariah and countries like Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia. By the 2004-2005 period, Singapore had investments worth 1.57 billion US dollars and Thailand had pumped in 1.34 billion dollars, according to ALTSEAN.

Furthermore, the value of bilateral trade between Burma and Singapore in 2006 was one billion dollars, according to available reports, while the two-way trade between Burma and Thailand was 3.7 billion dollars.

Such economic ties helped to cement the relationship between ASEAN and Burma, despite a steady flow of reports about brutality and repression in the country. The region’s governments ignored the concerns of local and international human rights groups about doing business with a military dictatorship that suppressed its people with little regard for its consequences.

Burma’s military leaders, who have held power since a 1962 coup, have rarely been known to cave in to international pressure. The strongmen have withstood the heat that followed a brutal crackdown of a pro-democracy uprising in 1988, which left some 3,000 civilians dead. And also the criticisms that came after the junta refused to recognise the 1990 parliamentary elections, which the opposition won with a huge majority.

‘’ASEAN cannot ignore Burma anymore. Its credibility as a group is at stake now,’’ Teresa Kok, a parliamentarian in Malaysia’s opposition Democratic Action Party, told IPS over the phone from Kuala Lumpur. ‘’What ASEAN may not want may very likely happen: the Burma problem will overshadow next month’s meeting.’’