Europe, Headlines

POLAND: Gov’t Vows Socially Conscious Liberalism

Zoltán Dujisin

PRAGUE, Nov 26 2007 (IPS) - Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s newly formed cabinet in Warsaw has promised a new Poland in the wake of two years of staunch conservatism, but his party’s liberal enthusiasm will have to adapt to pragmatic considerations.

“Tusk is still quite unclear about financial reform,” Lena Kolarska-Bobinska, director of the Institute of Public Affairs in Warsaw, told IPS. “That means that he either will act without speaking about it or simply that he won’t act,” she said.

The liberal Civic Platform (PO), lead by Tusk, and the Polish Peasant’s Party (PSL) successfully formed a coalition which passed a confidence vote held November 24.

Deputies voted 238 to 204 to endorse the coalition cabinet. The two parties won 240 seats in last month’s parliamentary election. The PO won 206 seats in the election, short of the 231 needed for a majority in the lower house of parliament.

The PO will have to be attentive to the needs of conservative voters, generally those who have benefited the least from the liberal economic transformations of post-communism and who feel liberals are insensitive to the needs of the majority.

“We want to offer Poles a liberal economic policy and a social policy based on solidarity,” the Prime Minister announced.

“For Tusk solidarity means encouraging older people and the disabled to work, to get them involved,” Kolarska-Bobinska explains.

“He speaks about lowering taxes, raising wages for doctors and teachers, and of lowering the budget deficit,” Kolarska-Bobinska said. “These are difficult to combine, but he has spoken about combining the liberal and the social, freedom and solidarity.”

Expectations are high – Poland’s economy is growing, unemployment is falling, and an economic miracle following the ‘Irish example,’ was promised ahead of the election – but Tusk’s programmatic priorities, such as lowering the budget deficit, are at first sight incompatible with his promises.

Analysts have welcomed the coalition as one that will probably prove more stable than former prime-minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s alliance with extremist and populist forces.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s disagreements with the smaller coalition parties eventually lead to early elections on October 21.

Fears of a conservative comeback will be a strong factor in keeping unity, and the PO seems willing to compromise on its initial plans to introduce a flat tax.

Many believe the PO’s staunchly liberal rhetoric in the 2005 elections cost them a defeat that was avoided in 2007 by showing greater social sensitivity.

The coalition – which has agreed not to give full control of any ministry to a single party – will have to find common ground on issues such as simplifying bureaucracy, lowering taxes, and reducing the role of the state through judiciary reform and privatisation and health care.

But economists are pressuring the government to implement unpopular reforms and reap the opportunities offered by a positive economic climate.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s Law and Justice party (PiS) is likely to attempt to maintain divisions in the minds of Polish citizens. But, with its combination of economic liberalism and conservative world-view, the PO shares some of the previous government’s conservative stances.

The abuse of state media and the secret services in the fight against corruption, which many analysts see as having been mostly aimed against political rivals, could be the subject of investigations by the newly elected authorities, who are intent on reforming the intelligence agencies.

Tusk’s relationship with President Lech Kaczynski – the former prime-minister’s twin brother – is bound to be problematic as well.

The constitution gives the president a say in shaping foreign policy and representing Poland abroad, and Lech Kaczynski could use his veto power against controversial laws.

The president has said he expects Tusk to consult him on matters that concern him constitutionally. Parliament can override the President’s veto but the ruling coalition is not likely to be able to muster the three-fifths of deputies required to override a veto.

Some of the new cabinet’s announced foreign policy shifts, such as being more demanding towards the U.S., improving ties with Russia, and withdrawing Polish troops from Iraq, are not to the President’s liking.

Tusk stresses that, “there is a huge imbalance and asymmetry in relations between Poland and the U.S.,” and has even dropped the traditional electoral promise of securing a visa-waiver from Washington. “We will not ask for this any longer … we will manage without them,” the prime-minister said.

The government will be especially scrutinized in regards to energy policy. A sensitive topic in relations with both Russia and Germany is the gas pipeline the two countries are planning to build through the Baltic Sea, bypassing Poland.

While Kolarska-Bobinska says “Kaczynski will absolutely maintain his influence,” she also notes, “Tusk promised to consult opposition on foreign policy issues, and the President cannot oppose the government in everything because he will be perceived negatively by public opinion.”

“Clashes will probably happen, but behind closed doors,” she told IPS.