UKRAINE: The Orange Look Gets Another Chance

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Zoltán Dujisin

PRAGUE, Dec 19 2007 (IPS) - With the appointment of Yuliya Timoshenko as Prime Minister of Ukraine, the pro-Western ‘Orange’ forces have been granted a second opportunity to prove that their political programme is stronger than narrow power ambitions.

The appointment results from the Sep. 30 early parliamentary elections won by the national-minded Orange political forces. The elections were ordered by President Viktor Yushchenko Apr. 2 after a change of factions by deputies in parliament was interpreted by the President as usurpation of power from forces loyal to former prime minister Viktor Yanukovich.

The change of factions by deputies from the orange coalition, which Timoshenko claimed was the result of bribing, and Yanukovich presented as proof of the lack of unity on the Orange side, could have given unprecedented power to the Party of the Regions-dominated parliament, allowing it even to override Presidential vetoes.

Yanukovich, whose Party of the Regions favours balancing between Russia and the West and also aims at bringing Ukraine into the European Union (EU), acceded to the President’s demand for an early vote after the country’s Constitutional Court failed to deliver a verdict on the President’s decree, citing enormous political pressure.

Yanukovich expected to get a comfortable win but the unexpectedly high turnout in favour of Timoshenko allowed the self-titled “democratic forces” to secure a narrow lead.

The Our Ukraine-People’s Self Defence Party, loyal to the President, and the Yuliya Timoshenko bloc finally pushed through the Prime Minister’s appointment after months of negotiations and a series of failed votes in parliament.

On Dec. 11 Timoshenko fell one vote short of being appointed, and immediately accused governing Party of the Regions MPs of tampering with the electronic voting system. The President ordered the Security Service of Ukraine to look into the complaint, but no evidence was found to back Timoshenko’s allegations.

On subsequent votes Party of the Region MPs blocked the rostrum demanding an apology from the ‘Orange’ forces. They said appointment of the prime minister should be preceded by distribution of parliamentary posts.

The President finally modified the parliament’s voting system to facilitate Timoshenko’s appointment.

The two governing political forces have agreed to gradually phase out military conscription by 2009, change regulations dealing with central and local authorities, reduce MPs’ benefits and privileges, and implement a binding mandate in parliament.

But the two parties’ economic programmes might clash, as Timoshenko favours both a strong state and the revision of shady privatisation deals, whereas the liberal Yushchenko argues for a free-market approach to the economy.

The leaders of the newly formed government will have not only to maintain the delicate balance of forces between the two groups, but will also strive to keep internal dissention in their own parties under control.

“This coalition will not be sustainable in the long term, both because of the upcoming presidential election and the very weak majority in the parliament,” Pawel Wolowski, director for Ukraine at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw told IPS.

“In Ukraine each parliamentary decision requires a simple majority, which practically disables the coalition from working properly,” the analyst said.

The signing of the coalition agreement was preceded by verbal exchanges, struggles over portfolios, and threats by individual deputies unwilling to support the formation of the new cabinet.

The new composition of the cabinet has not been entirely agreed, and Timoshenko’s intention to drastically reduce the overall number of portfolios is likely to increase competition for posts among ‘Orange’ politicians.

Some sectors of Our Ukraine, who distrust Timoshenko’s populist style, were reportedly more inclined towards an alliance with the Party of the Regions of former prime minister Viktor Yanukovich.

Timoshenko was one of the key figures in mobilising masses during the 2004 ‘Orange revolution’, a popular protest against vote rigging in the Presidential election.

However, the ‘Orange’ alliance in which Timoshenko played the prime minister role did not last long. In September 2005 President Viktor Yushchenko fired her following mutual corruption accusations within her cabinet.

Now the new government will have a narrow majority in the 450-deputy chamber, making it highly vulnerable to the dissention of a couple of MPs.

Nevertheless, Yushchenko said the “vote proved that the democratic forces can work in tandem.”

The President, who is not particularly fond of seeing Timoshenko become prime minister, eventually convinced those deputies in his bloc who had reservations on the deal to support the ‘orange’ coalition.

Yushchenko fears the prime minister will use her post as a platform to enhance her chances to become Ukraine’s next president by engaging in a populist policy; but not seeing any viable alternative he has capitulated to Timoshenko’s ambitions.

Presidential elections are scheduled for autumn 2009. Yushchenko will seek re-election, but all other political forces are already acting with the election campaign in mind.

The President, keen on appearing as an active participant in Ukrainian political life, has announced the set up of a national constitutional council which through 2008 will modify a constitution that has been often blamed for the power struggles that pervade Ukraine.

But analysts tend to agree that the formation of a new government filled with personal disagreements will hardly put an end to political instability in the country.

“The presidential ambitions of both Yushchenko and Timoshenko will undermine the stability of the government,” Wolowski told IPS. “With time this cohabitation will become very difficult.”

Heeding Yushchenko’s calls for greater integration of opposition forces into governance, Timoshenko has offered one of the deputy speaker positions to the opposition.

Some in the government are interested in including the Party of the Regions and the business interests behind it in Ukraine’s new power configuration, fearing the consequences of yet another all-out war between the two camps.

Yanukovich has promised a constructive and responsible opposition, but adds that the ruling coalition is destined to break up.

“Unfortunately, an epoch of trials for our country is beginning again,” Yanukovich said in reaction to Timoshenko’s appointment, which he described as an episode that “deepens political instability” and “stirs confrontation in society.”

“The Party of the Regions leaders will put up a harsh and strong opposition, sticking very firmly to procedures,” Wolowski predicts.

Ukraine’s new government will keep playing a key geopolitical role for the country that lies between Russia and the European Union, but some of Timoshenko’s pre-electoral promises signal a cooling of ties with Russia.

The recently agreed Russian gas price of 179.5 dollars per 1,000 cubic metres of gas, although considerably below market prices, is deemed excessive by Timoshenko. The prime minister wishes to remove middlemen from energy transactions between the two countries and says Ukraine ought to receive higher transit fees.

Gazprom, Russia’s giant gas monopoly, has already stated it is not interested in reviewing gas and transit fees with Ukraine for this year, and gas fees are expected to rise on a yearly basis on the basis of Gazprom’s desire to sell its gas at average European prices both in Russia and Ukraine.