KOSOVO: Challenged State Faces an Uncertain Future

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Zoltán Dujisin

PRISTINA, Feb 22 2008 (IPS) - As the euphoria over the proclamation of independence slowly dissipates, Kosovars will have to focus on the enormous political and economic challenges corruption, poverty and an angry Serbia will pose to statehood.

On Feb. 17 Kosovo, the long autonomous and much disputed southern region of Serbia, made a unilateral declaration of independence that was quickly recognised by Western powers but deemed illegitimate in Serbia, Russia and China.

Full sovereignty will only come after a period of supervised independence by international organisations.

“Kosovo has all the conditions to become a failed state,” a high-ranking official at one of the main international organisations in Kosovo told IPS on condition of anonymity. “But any formation of a new state is a risky venture and requires international support.”

Over 90 percent of Kosovo’s population of two million is composed of ethnic Albanians whose individual and collective human rights were violated under the tenure of late Serbian and Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic (1989-2000), culminating in a North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) military intervention in 1999.

Presently about 5 percent of the population is Serbian. Depending on the source, 70,000 to 200,000 Serbs are believed to have left Kosovo due to reprisals by the majority population following NATO’s intervention.

During Milosevic’s era Albanians developed a series of parallel institutions to ensure their educational and other social needs, often resorting to corrupt practices and creating an atmosphere of acceptance of corruption.

After 1999 the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) took over administrative functions and began rebuilding the region’s institutions from scratch, following Western models.

The international presence in Kosovo brought a duality of institutions which has damaged accountability and the system of checks and balances, making the country’s institutions more prone to corruption.

Moreover, “international and domestic organisations claimed successes for themselves while nobody took responsibility for failures,” the official said, though noting that independence could make responsibilities clearer.

Even international institutions have not been immune to corruption, and the government’s failed anti-corruption policies have left powerful foreign perpetrators mostly unscratched.

As with many other areas begging for action, anti-corruption laws are in place, but their implementation leaves much to be desired.

Furthermore, it remains unclear whether there is, or will be, political will to fight corruption. “There are connections between Kosovo’s political class and the Albanian mafia, especially with regards to women trafficking,” the official said.

Lulzim Peci, director of the Kosovar Institute for Policy Research and Development, says Kosovo’s status as a European hub for drugs and human trafficking is not a phenomenon rooted in the country but rather a result of its previously unclear international status. “There was no visa regime, but now we will be able to control our borders,” the analyst told IPS.

Kosovo’s police has been cited as an example of a corrupt-free and successfully established institution, but the country’s weak judiciary has been unable to curb corruption elsewhere, and could be jeopardising the success of other institution-building processes.

Surveys show that 57 percent of the public perceives the judiciary as very or somewhat corrupt, though other countries in the region do not differ dramatically in this sense.

Government officials still have reasons to be optimistic. “Independence did not happen out of the blue, little has been left to fortune,” Adri Nurellari, advisor to Prime Minister of Kosovo Hashim Thaci told IPS.

Nurellari admits that “privatisation has been highly corrupt,” but believes that “with the resolution of Kosovo’s status people will start following rules, and foreign investment will grow.”

Foreign capital inflows have so far been discouraged by endemic corruption, energy shortages, a shady privatisation process and property disputes.

This has affected an impoverished population. Kosovo currently lacks sustainable economic development. Its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita is estimated at around 1000-1200 euro (1500 to 1800 dollars). GDP annual growth has been low or even negative in recent years.

Unemployment hits all ethnic communities in what has historically been the poorest region of former Yugoslavia. Different estimates put it at 40 to 60 percent, and many survive on remittances from relatives abroad.

As important has been international assistance, but donors are criticised for focusing excessively on media and democratisation while neglecting education and farming in a country where most are employed in the agricultural sector, and 60 percent of the population lives in rural areas.

The amount donated to Kosovo until 2005 stood at 5 billion euro (7.5 billion dollars), but numbers have declined on a yearly basis, and by now Kosovo’s budget relies mostly on domestic revenue.

However, close to 70 percent of the country’s budget in 2006 was collected in import duties at the borders, and if Belgrade acts on its recently voiced threats of placing an embargo on Kosovo, Pristina’s public administration could be dealt a heavy blow.

“If they go for an embargo, they will de facto recognise secession, and besides, this would also damage Serbia economically,” Nurellari told IPS. However, the government official admits that Belgrade has proven in the past it is willing to “sacrifice economically for Kosovo.”

But Kosovo also boasts some comparative advantages. It is rich in minerals and fertile land; it could exploit energy resources, and there is a young workforce with experience abroad.

Keen to keep its influence in the province, Belgrade, which already commands parallel education, mail, judicial and police structures in Serbian-inhabited parts, will nevertheless continue to encourage its ethnic kin to ignore the new state’s institutions.

While some international officials present in Kosovo go as far as predicting a new military conflict, the official who spoke to IPS says a likely scenario is the emergence of another frozen conflict in Europe. “I believe there could be an institutional, and eventually territorial secession, but it won’t be recognised.”

Pristina also faces obstacles in getting full international recognition. Strong opposition by key global players will harm its chances of gaining a seat in the United Nations and other international organisations.

Still, Nurellari decided to play the issue down. “It will become indifferent if the UN recognises us or not because all countries with which there are political, social and economic exchanges will recognise Kosovo, except Serbia,” he told IPS.