BURMA: Rangoon Regime Gambles on an East-West Divide

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Analysis - IPS Correspondents

MANILA, Sep 4 1996 (IPS) - The Cold War may be over, but Burma is still playing the East vs West card to its own advantage and the disadvantage of millions of Burmese who six years ago voted for a democratic government, but till now remain under military rule.

Mixing vitriolic attacks on Western governments for trying to “interfere” with Burma’s internal affairs with kind words of appreciation to the support given by South-east Asian neighbours, the Rangoon junta is carefully preparing for a worst case scenario — a Western imposed economic embargo.

This became more evident when last weekend during a visit to southern China, Brigadier-General David Abel, the military junta’s Minister of Planning and Economic Development, made clear he was confident Burma could depend on the support of its neighbours in such an eventuality.

Specifically, he was responding to a question posed by reporters about how Burma would fare if the U.S. imposed a full-scale economic embargo and European Union (EU) removes special trading privileges based on charges that the regime is systematically abusing the rights of Burmese people.

“Myanmar (Burma) can survive on its own. We cut ourselves off from the world for 26 years…We can divert our markets to other places. I don’t think it will affect us,” he said, noting that Burma was surrounded by a total of some 2.5 billion consumers.

The Burmese official made no secret of the fact that the junta is actively “associating” more with South-east Asian governments and businesses to ensure there is no major fall-out on the economy should punitive action be taken by the West.

Abel was in Kunming as head of the Burmese delegation to a ministerial conference on economic cooperation in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS).

Representatives from Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam, as the other five Mekong River countries, also attended the GMS meeting convened by the Asian Development Bank (AsDB).

“In the sense of multinational trading systems, open trade, and things like that, Myanmar as (part of a) family of nations, is putting in its share, contributing,” the brigadier general was quoted as saying by the ‘Bangkok Post’. “Even if the West doesn’t think so the East does, so we cooperate with the East.”

The Burmese minister also highlighted his nation’s intent to join the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN), to which Burma formally applied for membership last month when Burmese Premier General Than Shwe paid an official visit to Kuala Lumpur. “A lot will depend on ASEAN,” said Abel.

Already, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has indicated he would like to see Burma join the ASEAN fold as early as next year when the regional grouping celebrates its 30th anniversary.

ASEAN, comprising Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, has been roundly criticised by human rights groups for its ‘constructive engagement’ policy with the Rangoon junta.

The grouping has resisted pressure from Western nations and human rights groups, to take a tougher stand against the junta as a means of forcing a return to democracy in Burma.

ASEAN members, particularly Malaysia and Indonesia, argue that isolating the regime would do little to help democracy’s cause since it would leave no room for negotiation in a country where political tension is running high.

But pro-democracy campaigners say that Asian governments are putting economics ahead of human rights by a ‘constructive engagement’ policy that leaves room for continued and even enhanced and unconditional trading ties.

Singapore (with 604 million dollars), Thailand (with 444 million dollars) and Malaysia (with 227 million dollars) are among the top six investor countries in Burma.

Malaysia’s total trade with Burma has actually leaped three-fold in the last six years, during which time the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) as the junta calls itself, has consolidated its hold on power.

The junta seized power in 1988 and launched a violent campaign against a student-led pro-democracy movement. Under pressure to restore democracy in the country, the SLORC held elections in 1990, but then refused to recognise the landslide victory of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD).

Since then, the junta has become increasingly intolerant of dissent, particularly from supporters of NLD leader and 1991 Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who was released from house arrest in July 1995 after almost six years in detention.

Suu Kyi has herself not called on the international community to impose sanctions, but she says the “threat” should be there and has urged investors not to pour any new money into Burma until the regime takes concrete steps toward restoring democracy.

Her cause is taken up by human rights groups across the region who decry ASEAN’s ‘constructive engagement’ policy.

“It’s quite awful,” complains Dr Mustafa Anuar, a long-time human rights activist with the Malaysian social reform group Aliran, one of a number of non-governmental organisation which protested the Burmese prime minister’s visit to Kuala Lumpur.

“ASEAN countries should be more cautious when dealing with a regime like that in Burma,” Mustafa added, arguing that the grouping should not entertain Burma unless “the military regime… liberalises the political sphere in the country and…ensures the participation of the Burmese people.”

But ASEAN leaders, confident in the region’s growing economic importance, are ignoring calls by Western governments and human rights activists keen to bring more pressure on the SLORC to democratise.

Already, the developing East-West divide over how best to deal with the Rangoon regime is playing right into the junta’s hands.

The Malaysian prime minister in particular is determined not to let the West dictate terms and policies to ASEAN, and made clear during Than Shwe’s visit that if Washington wanted to impose sanctions on the regional grouping for not taking a tougher stance on Burma, it could go right ahead and do so.

“We are not afraid,” Mahathir declared. “If it (the United States) wants to impose economic sanctions against the whole of ASEAN, it is going to fail because it has a lot of investments here.”