CONFLICT-MIDDLE EAST: Good Will Gestures Release Tension

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - Kim Ghattas

BEIRUT, Jul 12 1999 (IPS) - If meetings and expressions of good will were the only requisites for peace, the conflict in the Middle East could be solved in a few days, as demonstrated by Israel’s new prime minister Ehud Barak’s diplomatic moves towards Egypt and Palestine.

The meetings of the past few days are yet to produce anything real, but they have at least succeeded in easing the tension that had settled between Palestinians and Israelis during Benjamin Netanyahu’s term.

Only two days after he was sworn in as Prime Minister, Barak flew off to Egypt to meet with president Hosni Mubarak and then with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

Arafat and Barak were indeed grinning and effusively shaking hands on Sunday when they met. But Barak did not provide clear answers to Arafat’s demands, while in turn Arafat’s position on the Wye peace agreements’ remained ambiguous.

“I have no illusions…We are going into a tough and long process. There will be ups and downs and we will have some crisis,” said Barak after his joint press conference with Arafat.

More specific ideas will be talked over with United States president Bill Clinton when Barak goes to the Washington this week. “We are going to examine ways to carry out the Wye accords,” said Zvi Stauber, Barak’s chief diplomatic advisor, on the Israeli radio.

An unexpected statement by Barak was that a Palestinian state already existed ‘de facto’ and that there was no reason to consider it an enemy.

In Lebanon, reactions to Barak’s intentions are still welcomed with caution. Lebanese prime minister Selim Hoss said that after Lebanon’s “bitter” experiences with Israel, it was best “to see what results come out.”

Barak has at least overturned former Israeli Defence minister Moshe Arens’ decision to boycott meetings of the five-nation Monitoring Group, established in April 1996 after an Israeli operation against Lebanon, which ended with an agreement calling for the protection of civilians.

The group regularly looks into complaints by both sides concerning shelling of civilian targets.

Israel has become increasingly persuaded that the road to a peace treaty with Lebanon goes through Syria, driving Barak to call the Lebanese track a “half-track.”

One of Barak’s conditions to resume negotiations with Syria will probably be a cease fire in south Lebanon, where Hizbollah is waging a guerrilla war against the Israeli military forces occupying an 850 square-kilometre strip of Lebanese territory.

Hizbollah is known to be under Syria’s influence, as a reminder to Tel Aviv that there will be no peace in the region until the Golan Heights – occupied by Israel in 1967 and later annexed – are returned to their owners. However, Damascus has been ineffective in silencing Hizbollah during negotiations.

“Hizbollah doesn’t’ have its own agenda in the real sense of the word, but they do want to liberate the south. As long as Syria and Hizbollah’s agendas meet, there is no problem, but What will happen when they diverge ?” said Ali Khalil, a head of the committee for Foreign Affairs at the Lebanese parliament.

“To achieve a lasting peace, we need to abide by the Madrid land-for-peace formula and also to stick to the right of the resistance as long as there one Israeli soldier on our soil,” he said. An international conference held in Madrid in 1992, set the general framework for peace negotiations in the region.

While Arafat has pledged that he had “zero tolerance” to terrorism, Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, the spiritual leader of Hamas – a radical Islamic Palestinian group – has stressed that his followers will not stop their struggle against the Jewish state.

Making peace with the leaders while at the same keeping the armed groups quiet might be one of the most difficult obstacles in the way of resuming peace talks.

The US-brokered Wye plantation accords, signed last fall, were quickly frozen by Netanhayu, who argued that the Palestinians had not fulfilled their obligations regarding security, which for him meant a total crackdown on Palestinian groups hostile to Israel.

The accord calls for Israel to transfer more occupied land to the Palestinian Authority, release some 600 Palestinian prisoners and start moving towards an expanded Palestinian autonomy.

Arafat agreed under western pressure to postpone the Palestinian statehood declaration, due on May 4, not to strengthen Netanyahu’s electoral campaign based on fear, is now seemingly been asked to continue postponing the peace agreement.

The Palestinian leader insisted Sunday that the Wye accord must be implemented in its entirety and without further delay.

Elsewhere, Barak has reiterated his pledge to put and end to the 100-year old conflict with the Arabs, in what he termed a “peace of the brave.”

The Syrian government has showed also signs of openness at Barak’s overtures, and even relieved him from any responsibility for last months Israeli air raids against Lebanon (while Lebanese officials consider it impossible that Barak, as prime minister-elect, had not been informed in advance).

Damascus and the US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, have said said that one year would be “more than enough” for a comprehensive Middle East peace agreement.

In such an environment, political analysts say, it is the weakest -the Palestinians – who look like set to lose most.

Arafat’s strong public stand in his first official meeting with Barak has been interpreted as a message that Palestinian will not stand idle watching how Israel makes peace with Syria and Lebanon while leaving them, the main factor in the regional conflict, indefinitely waiting.