POLITICS-KOSOVO: Who’s in Charge of Diplomatic Process?

By Farhan Haq Reprint | | Print |

UNITED NATIONS, May 4 1999 (IPS) - The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) air strikes against Yugoslavia enter their seventh week Wednesday and, despite a growing number of diplomats working on the case, a diplomatic solution remains far off.

The roster of special envoys visiting Belgrade in recent days has swelled to include former Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and the Rev. Jesse Jackson of the United States.

Other high-level officials, such as German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, have become more involved in searching for a diplomatic solution, while Annan expects later this week to appoint two UN envoys to deal with Kosovo.

Yet for all the movement, the rhythm of the crisis has become terrifyingly predictable.

NATO warplanes bomb Yugoslavia in daily raids, while Yugoslav troops daily expel hundreds more ethnic Albanians from the province of Kosovo.

Occasionally, NATO confesses that its planes have killed Yugoslav civilians accidentally and Kosovar refugees have horrific tales of murder and rape at the hands of Yugoslav security forces.

As the disjuncture widens between the diplomatic flurry, the pounding bombing raids and the activities of Yugoslav troops, diplomats here wonder who controls the diplomatic process.

Some diplomats suspect that the answer is US President Bill Clinton, who has refused to consider a pause in the bombing of Yugoslavia to allow for negotiations.

Before any such pause “we would need acceptance of the basic principles and at least the beginning of the withdrawal of Serb forces,” Clinton said Monday.

By “basic principles” he means two points: the withdrawal of Yugoslav forces from Kosovo – where more than 600,000 ethnic Albanians have been expelled in recent weeks – and the deployment of “a credible international security force in which NATO plays a role”.

Belgrade has rebuffed those proposals. Yet Clinton’s central role in deciding whether or when NATO would let up its attacks has been underscored by Chernomyrdin’s and Jackson’s efforts earlier this week to press the US president on a diplomatic solution.

Both envoys took that case to the United Nations Tuesday, when Annan discussed Kosovo first with Chernomyrdin – who met Clinton in Washington 24 hours earlier – and later with Jackson, who successfully negotiated Belgrade’s release of three captured US soldiers.

In a bland statement, the United Nations said that Annan and Chernomyrdin “identified a number of areas on which further consultations with countries would be necessary” and “agreed to continue working together”.

Nor has Chernomyrdin shed much light on a peace plan, saying only that “it is very important to engage the United Nations” and that Russia will accept an international presence in Kosovo if Belgrade also agrees to it.

The United Nations has refrained from specific comment about Russia’s diplomatic efforts – which have advanced the idea of deploying a UN mission although not necessarily a NATO-dominated one – in Kosovo. Privately, UN officials say that the current Russian efforts are a way out of the crisis.

“The secretary-general is very conscious of the widespread feeling, which he shares, that Russia has a key role to play in looking for a negotiated solution to the Kosovo crisis,” says one senior UN official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The official argues that, although a solution will require “a long, drawn-out, complex process”, some movement has brought both NATO and Yugoslavia closer to a compromise.

That compromise will require three elements: a decision by Belgrade to withdraw most of its forces from Kosovo; agreement on some kind of force, to be approved by the UN Security Council; and negotiations on Kosovo’s status.

Already, the official adds, Belgrade has indicated that it is willing to draw down its security forces to the levels it had deployed prior to the recent crisis and that it may consider a UN mission – although only lightly armed and not involving most NATO members.

Any UN force requires the five permanent members of the Security Council – China, Britain, Russia, France and the United States – either to approve or at least to abstain from vetoing it. So far, Russia and China have been wary of dispatching any force to Kosovo which does not have Belgrade’s acceptance.

“When this issue of an international presence is resolved and Belgrade agrees to the international presence, Russia will take part,” according to Chernomyrdin.

The UN official adds that any Security Council decision on a UN mission likely would be “pre-cooked” in capitals, so that a near- unanimous vote would be guaranteed.

Yet for all the plans of UN deployment and possibly even an “interim administration” for Kosovo, the situation on the ground is depressingly unchanged with continuing reports of rapes and forced expulsions in Kosovo, and daily NATO bombing.

Diplomatic moves notwithstanding, Clinton clearly has remained in the driver’s seat.

After Jesse Jackson asked him for a bombing pause in return for the release of the US soldiers Steven Gonzalez, Christopher Stone and Andrew Ramirez, Clinton refused and NATO proceeded to bomb Yugoslav power plants, plunging most of the country into darkness.

Jackson told reporters Tuesday after meeting Annan that Clinton must take the initiative to deal directly with Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and forge a diplomatic solution.

“The lives lost, the disruption caused, the pain suffered deserves the highest level of diplomacy,” Jackson argued. “When we talk, we make things happen.” He repeated a proposal made by Milosevic that the two presidents meet directly to discuss Kosovo – an offer which Clinton has rejected so far.

Clinton also also talked tough in negotiations with Chernomyrdin, although he is now mentioning a force in which “NATO has a role” rather than one led by the alliance.

Clinton’s dominant role in any peace process ultimately could favour the end of the attacks. The notoriously poll-conscious Clinton reportedly has noticed how his US approval ratings have fallen by 10 percent since the start of the NATO attacks.

With Clinton wary of sending ground troops to Kosovo, the White House may soon – in the words of Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, an opponent of the Kosovo intervention – “give peace a chance.”