POLITICS-ETHIOPIA: Heading for Further Turmoil?

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis Katy Salmon

NAIROBI, Jun 29 2001 (IPS) - The steady stream of asylum-seeking soldiers and students trickling into Kenya — where more than 120 have arrived so far — over recent months has set alarm bells ringing.

Recent events have raised concerns that Africa’s third most populous country is once more headed for turmoil.

Ethiopia, with a population of about 64 million, is going through its most serious political shake-up since the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) tanks rolled into the capital Addis Ababa 10 years ago, sweeping away Mengistu Haile Mariam’s brutal militaristic regime.

Last month, Ethiopia’s security chief, Kinfe Gebre-Medhin, was assassinated. He was a confidante of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and his death raised fears of a coup – possibly from discontented soldiers or other political heavy weights.

However, Zenawi insists that all is well. In interviews, he has firmly rejected speculation that his position is in jeopardy. As Ethiopia is a notoriously closed society, outsiders can only guess as to what is going on behind closed doors in the top echelons of power. If Ethiopia disintegrates, it could spark a massive humanitarian crisis.

Zenawi admits he has been facing a power struggle within his Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the main party in the ruling EPRDF coalition. Many are believed to be unhappy with the soft line he took on neighbouring Eritrea in their two-year border war.

More hawkish members of the political elite are thought to have been pushing for a march on the Eritrean capital, Asmara, before Ethiopia agreed to sue for peace almost a year ago. There is also debate over corruption and whether to open the country further.

In recent months, Zenawi has sought to consolidate his grip on power. In March, he ejected almost half of the TPLF’s central committee in an effort to solidify his own position. His supporters claimed the hard-liners were rejected and that Zenawi, leading the reforming wing, was back in control.

Nevertheless, the political fall out at the top has continued. Last week, President Negaso Gidada quit the ruling coalition, effectively resigning. Gidada announced he was withdrawing his membership of the EPRDF after walking out of a meeting of the front’s council, one of the organisation’s top bodies.

Gidada, who had largely been a figurehead leader, complained he had come “under pressure from the chair” – Prime Minister Zenawi. Colleagues suspected Gidada was siding with TPLF dissidents expelled earlier in the year according to the Walta Information Service, a private news agency close to the government.

Walta said council members accused Gidada of “rejecting the ongoing renewal movement and siding with the position of dissidents who were dismissed from the TPLF.”

There are fears more high-level political battles are yet to come.

The government’s internal problems have triggered a great deal of insecurity and suspicion. Ordinary civilians are suffering as it ruthlessly clamps down on any potential threats.

Dozens of government officials, political dissidents and influential businessmen have been detained in an apparent war on graft. Cynical analysts are questioning the timing of the clean up. Why has the government decided to tackle corruption now? Is it not just an excuse for a purge?

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has accused the Ethiopian authorities of using “brutal violence” against Addis Ababa University students holding demonstrations asking for greater academic freedoms in mid April. The protests erupted into the worst rioting in years with a spree of looting fuelled by frustration at widespread poverty and unemployment. At least 30 people were killed.

HRW says the government used “the ensuing crisis to justify a general crackdown on figures critical to the government”. Hundreds of people were arrested including two internationally respected academics.

Four members of the Ethiopian Democratic Party (EDP), one of the main opposition parties, were detained on suspicion of inciting the riots. They were held for some 50 days before the courts found them innocent and released them.

On Wednesday, the police re-arrested them. “We don’t know why they were arrested or where they are,” said a statement by the EDP. The organisation claims more than 100 of its members are still behind bars after being arrested in April.

The current atmosphere of tension and fear is a far cry from the widespread enthusiasm that greeted the EPRDF’s arrival in 1991.

Zenawi was hailed as one of a new breed of African renaissance leaders, promising to open his country up to economic and political pluralism.

Events have proved otherwise, with Ethiopia once again becoming enmeshed in its perennial problems – war and famine. The optimism following the end of the senseless border war with Eritrea has rapidly been dispelled by the succession of political shocks.

The government insists that the worst is over, and that it has emerged from the recent power struggle stronger and more liberal. Yemane Kidane, the foreign ministry’s chief of cabinet, told the London ‘Financial Times’ that the current crackdown is a “temporary” measure to stem growing lawlessness.

“We are seeing a metamorphosis from a quasi-liberation movement to a mature state regime,” Kidane said. “Whenever there is change, there will be a struggle with the forces of the status quo. But the critical moment has passed, and we are getting ready to take off.”

Human rights groups believe otherwise. Even if the TPLF split has been resolved, it does not mean the government will become more liberal. It has always kept a tight leash on the media and civil society groups. The Human Rights Council has been accused by the government of pursuing a political agenda and was recently closed down for 10 days.