LARGE ALLIANCES AMONG EMERGING POWERS

Emerging powers are weaving alliances and reciprocal economic and political links that are modifying the traditional world order between the center and the periphery, developed and under-developed countries, and the planet's North and South. One of the major movements in that sense is the IBSA Forum, formed by three democratic nations India, Brazil and South Africa which will hold its third summit meeting in New Delhi, next October 15th, writes Marcio Pochmann, Brazilian economist and President of the Institute of Applied Economics Research (IPEA). Along with expanding their economies in recent years, the three nations have increased their presence in the global economy. In 1975, the IBSA member countries amounted to 3.7% of the world's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while in 2006 that figure grew to 4.8%. In 1975, India, Brazil and South Africa accounted for 2.1% of world exports, and in 2006 that total grew to 2.9%. IBSA's expansive trend is parallel to that of most of developing countries, which in 1970 amounted jointly to 25% of world exports, while in 2006 that total was more than 41%. Trade among Southern countries has grown in an even larger proportion.

REALITIES OF THE ZIMBABWEAN POWER-SHARING AGREEMENT

Zimbabwe\'s new political pact, though a 180-degree turn from violence and deadlock to cooperation and progress, is unlikely to create sustainable change for the country, writes Kumi Naidoo, Honourary President of CIVICUS. In this article, Naidoo writes that the power-sharing agreement would leave Mugabe as president and make opposition leader Tsvangirai prime minister. The national healing that the agreement alludes to will require a realistic acknowledgement of the fact that it was the Mugabe government\'s past policies and actions that destroyed Zimbabwe\'s economy and threatened to decimate its people. A realistic assessment of that past starts with the recognition of the government\'s use of violence and intimidation. The acceptance of the past is the only viable foundation for instituting an effective system of transitional justice for the people of Zimbabwe. But this kind of realism will be difficult to attain with President Mugabe continuing to hold any amount of power.

WORLD TRADE: A LESSON TO AVOID A NEW GREAT DEPRESSION

Policy-makers in the United States and across the globe are desperately seeking to avoid the missteps that accentuated the financial crisis of the 1930s. One of the important lessons is that protectionism and economic isolationism do not work, writes Pascal Lamy, Director-General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). In this article, Lamy writes at this time of economic distress with soaring world food prices, what impoverished consumers desperately need is to see their purchasing power enhanced and not reduced. Shutting borders does exactly the opposite. There is no doubt therefore that the current hurricane that has hit financial markets must not dissuade the international community from pursuing greater economic integration and openness. Despite the setback that the Doha Round of world trade negotiations suffered last July, talks have restarted with the aim of completing a deal on tariff and subsidy reduction by the end of this year. This would be the best contribution the WTO could make to counteract the current world crisis. A comprehensive WTO deal can help soften the impact of high food prices by tackling the current systemic distortions in international agricultural trade that have stifled food production and investment in agriculture for years in many developing countries.

EFFECTS OF DEATH PENALTY MORATORIUM FELT

October 10, the International Day Against the Death Penalty, will be an occasion to reaffirm the universal moratorium on executions, approved last December 18 by the General Assembly, and to insure it is complied with, . In this article, Bonino writes that for death penalty states, the resolution has an undeniable moral value and political force. The UN has for the first time established that capital punishment is not confined to the ambit of domestic justice but involves the universal sphere of human rights. In truth, the definitive solution to the problem involves not only the death penalty but also democracy, the rule of law, and respect for political rights and civil liberties. At present, we are requesting that this year\'s resolution include a request that death-penalty countries make available to the UN Secretary General all information relative to their death penalty and executions. We are also demanding a new resolution that creates the position of a UN Secretary General Special Envoy charged with monitoring the situation and working to encourage and reinforce internal processes in death penalty countries such that they adhere to the moratorium on executions.

CUBA AND THE WINDS OF CHANGE

The staggering tally of losses caused in Cuba by hurricanes Gustav and Ike do cannot convey the awful desolation of those who saw their homes blasted into a heap of boards, bricks, and tiles, writes Leonardo Padura Fuentes, a Cuban writer and journalist. In this article, the author writes that 444,000 homes were said to have been seriously damaged and more than 63,000 completely destroyed. After passing through the profound economic hardships of the 1990s, Cuba today seems to be entering a new dark era of indescribable shortages in which it is impossible to find food, clothes, matches, shoes, and in which exhaustion and desperation reign. At the moment, the big unknown is whether the Cuban government, in addition to distributing idle land, will finally enact its promised social and economic \"structural and conceptual changes\", which might help shorten the amount of time the people must wait, and despair. Before this hurricane season, the expectations of change that could energise the economy and mobilise society were a matter of hope. Two hurricanes later and with half the country devastated, they are an absolute necessity.

THE FUTURE OF CHINA

China has been making progress in building a vibrant, modern society, but inevitably it still has to cope with massive problems left by its turbulent past. Still, that progress is clearly remarkable by any standard. China has raised more people out of poverty than any nation has ever done, writes Maurice Strong, former Secretary General of the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment and the first Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) The constraints that the Chinese and foreigners living here continue to experience are minimal and for the most part understandable, given that no nation has suffered from societal breakdown, internal conflict and foreign intervention more than China has in the past century. It is a small wonder that the Chinese place such emphasis on the need for internal stability and security. Indeed, we must realize that even in our own societies the standards we exhort China to adopt are those we have only recently, and not yet fully, lived up to ourselves. The Chinese will be much more influenced by our example than by the uninformed and hypocritical content of so much of our criticism. Similarly, the attempt to shift the onus for increases in food, oil and commodity prices to China, as well as India and others now competing for these imports, will be counterproductive. The needs of the poor and the newly developing countries cannot be subordinated to the wasteful and indulgent appetites of the rich and their pre-emption of a disproportion of the world\'s resources.

NEPAL: A PRAGMATIC MAOISM

Ever since he launched a guerrilla war to topple Nepal's monarchy 12 years ago, Nepal's Prime Minister Prachanda used to regularly denounce “American imperialism and Indian expansionism”. In an interview in 1998, he even said his Maoist guerrillas were prepared to fight off an invasion by the Indian Army and that Nepal's revolution would spread “to India, and then to the world”, writes Kunda Dixit, editor and publisher of the Nepali Times newspaper in Kathmandu. On September 18, Prachanda returned from an official visit to India, stayed overnight in Kathmandu and immediately left for the United States. Dressed in a smart business suit and tie, Prachanda met top Indian leaders and industrialists to tell them they could trust the Maoists and that Nepal was open for big Indian investments in hydropower, manufacturing and infrastructure. Chief Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai is finance minister and a former Maoist guerrilla commander is defence minister. On September 19, Bhattarai unveiled the government's eagerly-awaited budget. Everyone was looking for signs that the Maoists would be trying to implement their slogans of revolutionary land reform, populist handouts to the poor and hefty taxes on property and luxury goods. But although the $4 billion budget was an ambitious 30 percent bigger than the previous year's estimate, it was a much more economically pragmatic document than most expected.

BURMESE OPPOSITION LEADER WEAK AFTER REFUSING FOOD FOR FOUR WEEKS

Detained Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is malnourished after having refused food supplies for over four weeks in protest against her unlawful detention, sources from her party, the National League for Democracy party (NLD), report, writes Zin Linn, a former political detainee in Burma is presently the media and information director of the National Coalition Government of Union of Burma. In this analysis, Linn writes that the military junta that rules the country has stated that she is not staging a hunger strike, while the NLD has stopped short of using the term. The leader of the NLD, which swept the 1990 parliamentary elections, Suu Kyi has spent 12 of the last 18 years under house arrest. The junta refused to accept the results of the vote. There is clear evidence of growing divisions among Burma\'s military brass over the treatment of Suu Kyi and how to protect the army\'s future political role in Burma. The split is largely between pragmatists who understand the need for political and economic reform, and the hardliners who want to hang on to power regardless of the pressure for change from inside and outside of the country. Suu Kyi knows that time is running out. Her current protest is a brave wake-up call to the whole nation, especially the men in uniform who support a pragmatic approach to rebuilding the ruined nation.

CUBA: THE MASS MEDIA INTO QUESTION

The shortcomings of the Cuban media are due not to a lack of professional ability or to technical or financial deficiencies but rather to entrenched ways of thinking. As in other sectors -agriculture, the service industry, and home construction- there is a clear need for a less centralised and less uniform model, writes Rafael Hernandez, a political commentator and editor of the journal Temas in Havana. In this article Hernandez writes: the national debate that developed in September and October 2007 after the July 26 speech by then interim president Raul Castro showed not only that is there unmuzzled criticism of the government by Cuban civil society but also that channelling it through the Cuban media reinforces the general attitude towards the government. This debate revealed that Cubans disagree strongly with the mass media, which they criticise for not reflecting their national reality or giving sufficient space to Cuban public opinion, for its repetition of slogans, and for its \"excessive politicisation\". Democratic debate, with complete clarity and confidence on the part of the state, cannot be limited by the fear that there might be an attempt from outside the country to take advantage of the situation, Raul Castro stated on July 26 - \"because sooner or later the truth will come out\". The implementation of this policy will make it possible for the real Cuba, a vibrant and diverse civil society in contrast to its usual representation as uniform mass, to fully express itself.

THE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE WEST

The Russian incursion into Georgia after Georgian troops broke into South Ossetia was actually modest compared with NATO\'s behaviour towards Yugoslavia and Kosovo. The Russians wanted to back up the compelling independence claims of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Stalin incorporated into Georgia. As American author and political analyst George Friedman recently pointed out, the invasion was primarily a response to the threatening military encirclement of Russia carried out by Washington, writes Gunnar Garbo, former editor, MP, and Norwegian Ambassador, presently a writer and activist. In this article, Garbo writes that when Khrushchev installed missiles in Cuba, the world felt itself pushed to the brink of atomic war, and yet today, Western leaders are demanding that Russians see the installation of our missiles along their border as tokens of friendship. For many years, US leaders have been building up a global preponderance of military might. Now they have to recognise that Russia is once again a regional power which they can\'t continue to humiliate without bringing on a new Cold War. This can only be avoided if the US finally starts treating Russia on equal terms. It should stop taking steps that create the same fears and suspicions in Moscow which similar Russian actions would have produced in Washington.

AN ANTHOLOGY OF INFAMY

Spanish radio personality Federico Jimenez Losantos has called Barack Obama a hollow caricature and said that comparing him to Paris Hilton is insulting to her. McCain, he says, has done nothing since he left Hanoi, but his wife Cindy is more interesting because she\'d be a good lay, writes Joaquin Roy, \'\'Jean Monnet\'\' professor and Director of the European Union Centre of the University of Miami. More of his remarks: Castro should hold off on dying and live on with his artificial anus, suffering a prolonged and agonising death from Parkinson\'s disease. After him on the \"kill\" list would come Hugo Chavez, the missing link. How does he get away with this? In this analysis, Roy writes that anything goes. It is believed that whatever is shown on TV is true and credible. Few know that Jimenez Losantos was tried and found guilty of slandering impeccable figures of the right like Ruiz Gallardon and Jose Antonio Zarzalejos, ex-editor of the newspaper ABC. And no one has the courage to sue for significant damages, American style as opposed to the 36-100,000 euro fines imposed by the Madrid courts for slander. No one is bringing criminal charges for defamation of character despite the fact that it is clearly defined in the criminal code. At present, the newspaper barons that are protecting this systematic operation are not giving it a second thought.

WAITING IN CUBA

Since the formation of the country in the 19th century, Cubans have always had to wait for the arrival of something that would complete them or improve their lot (political independence, better government, economic development, etc), writes Leonardo Padura Fuentes, a Cuban author and journalist whose novels have been translated into a dozen languages. The growing desire to emigrate is one of the most tangible reflections of the exhaustion of the process of waiting. What is painful about the case of Cuba is that the process is also directly compromising the essence of today\'s society and above all the future society, because a considerable number of the emigrants of the last two decades were young professionals who found themselves unmotivated, disinterested, and distrustful and decided to shift their hopes to areas where their chances seemed better. This exodus of the young, the intelligent, and the educated is without a doubt bleeding Cuba\'s present and future. It is also a cause, among others, of the aging and the shrinking of the population of the island. The art of waiting that their ancestors practised does not seem to be an option that the youngest Cubans wish to pursue any longer. What remains to be known is whether Cuban society can infinitely prolong its wait as it sees so many of its sons and daughters carried away.

THE ROLE OF THE INTELLECTUAL UNDER TOTALITARIAN REGIMES

The role of the writer in politics has been a subject of intense debate since French novelist Emile Zola published in 1898 \"J\'accuse\", his indictment of the French army\'s wrongful conviction of Alfred Dreyfus for treason. The most recent chapter was related to the life and work of the renowned Russian writer Alexander Solzhenitsyn, who died on August 4, writes Mario Soares, ex-President and ex-Prime Minister of Portugal. Between World War I and II numerous French as well as German, British, American, Latin American, and other writers had a considerable effect on the political opinions of the public. One of the most influential was Romain Rolland, author of \"Jean Christophe\" and \"L\'Ame Enchantee\", a French pacifist and communist sympathiser who was read throughout Europe. In 1974 Solzhenitsyn was expelled from Russia and became the dissident most loathed by the world\'s communist parties. I remember clearly the polemic that erupted in Portugal after the 1974 Carnation Revolution freed us from the dictatorship and how Portuguese communists attacked us socialdemocrats for defending Solzhenitsyn in keeping with our creed.

BIOFUELS AND FOOD SECURITY: CONFLICT OR COMPLEMENTARITY?

It makes no sense to single out biofuels as the scapegoat for high food costs without considering the effect of the spectacular rise in oil prices, writes Ignacy Sachs, honorary professor, School of Advanced Studies in Social Sciences, Paris and visiting fellow, Institute of Advanced Studies, University of Sao Paulo. Sachs writes in this article that we ought to strive for greater moderation and efficiency in energy consumption and take all the necessary steps to assure the complementarity between food and biofuels production. It should be possible to greatly increase biofuels output without encroaching on land used for food production or resorting to deforestation. Sachs calls for using waste and marginal land to grow robust oilseed plants; transforming into biofuels (including biogas) agricultural, forest, and domestic residues and moving as quickly as possible to second generation cellulosic biofuels; intensifying research on biodiversity, in particular on oilseed-producing tropical trees and on the third generation of biofuels (algae).

CAUCASUS: THE POWDER KEG

The Caucasus is today a major theatre of the Cold War II, which involves the long-term encirclement of Russia-India-China in order to control Eurasia through the eastward expansion of NATO and the westward expansion of AMPO, the US-Japan security system, writes Johan Galtung, a Professor of Peace Studies and founder of TRANSCEND, a peace and development network, and author of \"50 Years: 100 Peace and Conflict Perspectives,\" TRANSCEND University Press, 2008. In this article, Galtung writes that the US is pressing for Georgian membership in NATO, thereby coming even closer to the Russian heartland. This idea was rejected at the latest NATO meeting this spring, but not in principle. The Red Army functioned as the lid on the cauldron of the Soviet Union, and when it was removed, it boiled over. Georgia is the same. With the lid gone, Abkhasia and South Ossetia (and the Muslim Ajar) seceded. The most viable option may be a Caucasian Community, comprised of the four entities. Peace in the Caucasus implies disinviting the big powers and engaging in integrative Caucasian policies. The present policies lead away from peace. A Georgian government trying to gain popular support by reclaiming \"lost\" territories, hoping for some kind of US support, has already aggravated the situation - possibly leading to a major confrontation. Some statesmanship, please.

INDIA: AS THE ECONOMY GROWS, SO DOES HUNGER

Blaming high food prices on rising demand in fast-developing countries like China and India deflects scrutiny from structural causes - like the liberalisation of agricultural markets - and suggests incorrectly that market-friendly reforms have uplifted the poor and underprivileged, writes Anuradha Mittal, Executive Director of the Oakland Institute, a policy think tank working to increase public participation and to promote fair debate on critical social, economic, and environmental issues. In this analysis, the author writes that a closer examination of India disproves the latter assertion. In India the total number of the poor and vulnerable increased from 732 million to 836 million between 1993/1994 and 2004/2005. In an effort to move towards market-driven production of agricultural goods, India is shifting from coarse grains to high-value commodities for export and systematically pulling away from the long-respected post-Independence statute requiring self-reliance in agriculture. Consequently, there has been a considerable decline in the rate of growth of production, productivity, and the quantity of land planted and irrigated for the major crops. India\'s hunger and poverty amidst plenty is emblematic of hunger worldwide, which is the result of decades of neglect of agriculture in poor countries and ill-advised policies from the international financial institutions. Promoting agricultural development in poor nations would bolster their food self-sufficiency and help alleviate poverty.

HOUSING, FOOD, OIL – WHAT NEXT?

At the bottom of the world economy people die from hunger and preventable curable diseases while at the top, where enormous quantities of wealth are transported upwards, particularly into US hands, speculation is the twin of starvation, both offspring of the same morbid, and probably moribund, system, writes Johan Galtung, Professor of Peace Studies and founder of TRANSCEND, a global peace and development network. In this article, Galtung writes that in the history of speculation, Black Tulip fever in Amsterdam four centuries ago and gold-gold-gold topped the chart. But these were innocent compared to the speculation found now in housing, food, and oil, which are for buying-selling only, not for end consumption. Moreover, and much worse, housing, food, and oil are basic needs. Basic needs are ideal for speculation because demand to a large extent is inelastic, independent of price. Unbelievably brutal, capitalism not only exploits workers but also kills the consumers, in the name of the market. Next in line as speculation targets are health and medical services, and not only the pharmaceuticals. Watch out, the logic is clear. What is the solution? Remove basic needs from the commodity market, and criminalise speculation in them.

WTO TALKS COLLAPSE AND THE BIRTH OF A NEW WORLD ORDER

There is a clear lesson to be drawn from the unsuccessful WTO negotiations held in Geneva July 21-29: the world is witnessing a shift of power in the arena of the world economy and world trade as new states with growing economies and political ambitions are asserting themselves, writes Jonas Gahr Store, Foreign Minister of Norway. In this analysis, Gahr Store writes that we could have paved the way for the next major round of negotiations, on climate change in Copenhagen next year. Perhaps I was present at the collapse of a world order, the author writes, but at the same time, I witnessed the birth of a new world order where all countries are present and demand their rights, and that requires an almost unlimited willingness to negotiate, make compromises, and find sustainable solutions. We must use our failure in Geneva as a spur for the development of a world order that involves more states, a shift in the power balance, and essential new tasks relating to climate change, the environment, labour rights, and the fight against poverty.

US ELECTIONS AND CUBA

A year ago, when then provisional president Raul Castro made an overture to the US, the response was fundamentalist and hostile, and Havana\'s counter response was the usual: that after fifty years, Washington\'s hostility (the major effect of which has been the suffering of individual Cubans) has not budged the Cuban government, writes Leonardo Padura Fuentes, a Cuban writer and journalist whose novels have been translated into a ten languages. In this article, the author writes that today, with the US presidential elections fast approaching, Cubans are asking themselves what might change in these stagnated relations that effect them so powerfully. McCain promises more of the same, and we know that Havana will respond in kind, with unity, intransigence, and the rejection of change, whatever the cost. Obama promises certain shifts -in travel policy and remittances to family in Cuba from the US - that would not address the central problem. And even though more and more people, politicians included, recognise that the tactic employed by Washington has not and will not induce Havana to make changes - the contrary is true - the Cuban question, always prominent in electoral season, does not seem likely to produce the fundamental changes that might have a domino effect. Or is it a deadlock that politicians need, and want? Cubans are asking.

A CIVILISATION PREDICATED ON DIALOGUE

There has never been a time when it was more important for us to inspire each other by learning from our differences or holding a creative dialogue of the wise, writes Daisaku Ikeda, a Japanese Buddhist philosopher and peace-builder and president of the Soka Gakkai International (SGI) grassroots Buddhist movement. Common to all of the thinkers and leaders from various fields and nationalities with whom I have engaged in dialogue over the years is an earnest prayer and deep determination to see the 21st century become a century of peace and dialogue, in contrast to the century of war and violence that was the 20th. There is absolutely no reason why we cannot rise above the divisive crises that confront our contemporary world. Dialogue is the surest path to peace. And it is a path open to all of us, starting from wherever we are, starting now. Dialogue is an adventure, a means of discovering the uniqueness, mystery, and familiarity of humanity. It is the wellspring of ceaseless and unimpeded value creation.

THE G8 HAS NO LEGITIMACY

(IPS/South Centre) The last G8 summit (Hokkaido, Japan,July 7-9) sat in judgment over the democratic credentials of the government of Zimbabwe, but it had itself no legitimacy. The G8 had no choice but to bring the matter to the Security Council of the UN. And there the West lost: China and Russia vetoed, writes Yash Tandon, Executive Director of the South Centre, Geneva. The G8 is no longer even the seat of the powerful. It is a club of the six richest Western countries -France, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom, United States and Canada, plus one rich Asian country (Japan), plus nearly rich Russia, a former Communist country that was admitted in 1998, but still sits, uncomfortably, in the margins of G7. As it turned out, the so-called G5 developing nations (Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa) that were invited to Hokkaido as observers, declared that they had no particular appetite for a pre-cooked dinner in which they had no hand in preparing. They constituted themselves into the coalition of the unwilling, and issued their own Political Declaration. On the matter of climate change, for example, they placed targets for the developed countries, calling for quantified emission targets for these countries under the Kyoto Protocol after 2012, \"of at least 25-40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 and by 2050, by between 80 and 95 per cent below those levels, with comparability of efforts among them\". What is needed is a radical reform of the Security Council of the UN, not a patch-up job of the G8 that should, by now, dissolve itself. It does not constitute the international community that it thinks it does.